-- Posted Thursday, 7 July 2005 | Digg This Article
Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:
Initial Jobless Claims for 7/02 came in a bit less than the expected 320,000 at 319,000.
Despite attacks in London, the G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland continued today, though any official policy announcements were delayed until tomorrow.
Tomorrow brings a busy end to the week economically, starting off with June jobs data at 8:30AM EST. Nonfarm payrolls are expected at 195,000, though the last 3 months have seen actual payrolls come in over 100,000 more or less than the estimate, so don’t be surprised to see a number far from 195,000. As always, be sure to watch the BLS net birth/death adjustment. When adding the past 3 months together, reported payrolls total 498,000 and BLS adjustments total 643,000, meaning that total job growth for the past three months without BLS adjustments is a loss of 145,000 jobs! Also due out is the Unemployment Rate expected at 5.1%, Hourly Earnings expected at 0.2%, and the Average Workweek expected at 33.8.
At 10AM are Wholesale Inventories for May expected at 0.5%. At 3PM is Consumer Credit for May expected at $4.0 billion.
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The gold price is an amalgam of diverse and changing influences, from Currencies to Jewellery, from Investors to Speculators. From Asia, to India, to Australia, to Canada, to South Africa, to the U.S.A. and to Asia, the gold price is of interest to all. It cannot be seen in isolation as a metal, but must be understood as a Global Thermometer measuring monetary, political, economic, stability as well as the raw demand / supply features of the metal itself. These factors do not merely add up to the price, but interact in sometimes strange ways, to produce the gold price. For example, rising prices often lead consequently to rising demand, as the appetite for the metal grows. Its price may rise in one currency and fall in another, at the same time. Overall, it reacts sensitively to the overall level of global stability, which, in turn, gives us the gold price.
It is our task in this letter to track these different features, giving you both the Technical Analysis and the fundamental features impacting on the gold price each week along with a T.A. focus on metal equities. It is our goal to help you to understand and profit from this market, wherever you are on this globe, in a professional manner.
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Oil traded wildly following the London attacks before moving lower as demand for oil was seen as lower as people are expected to travel less due to the attacks. Oil had traded over $62 overnight on worries over Hurricane Dennis prior to the attacks, and fell to as low as $57.20 in electronic trade immediately following the attacks. This morning’s EIA inventory report saw crude inventories draw down 3.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories fall 900,000 barrels, and distillates build 300,000 barrels. After initially trading higher on the crude draw down, oil prices fell on the build in distillates. While oil prices often gain on news of terror attacks, this attack had no effect on supplies and instead only dampens demand. Oil ended the day lower by $0.55 to $60.73.
Treasuries rose this morning after the London blast and then quickly fell from their highest levels of the day, but still ended with gains.
Treasuries | Close | Gain/Loss |
10-Year Note Yield | 4.031% | -0.044 |
September 2005 Bond | 117 19/32 | +11/32 |
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded markedly lower in pre-open futures trade, seeing losses of over 2% before coming back for less than 1% losses by the open. The major indices gradually rallied from there and actually found gains by the end of the day.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
Dow | 10302.29 | +0.31% |
Nasdaq | 2075.66 | +0.34% |
S&P | 1197.87 | +0.25% |
Among the big names making news in the market today were Charles Schwab, Target, Omnicare and NeighborCare, Pepsi Bottling, and Wal-Mart.
The ECB and the Bank of England both officially held their rates at 2% and 4.75%, respectively, despite speculation that they may cut rates. The U.S. dollar index fell off following the London attacks, but rebounded from there to end with minor losses.
Currency | Close | Gain/Loss |
U.S. Dollar Index | 90.30 | -0.07 |
Euro Index | 119.49 | +0.25 |
Yen | 89.26 | +0.10 |
Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com:
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 5,814,003 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 103,720,188 | - |
Gold and silver jumped higher in London trade on “safe-haven buying” after trading slightly higher in Asia. Both metals fell from their highs to levels seen before the attacks, but remained higher throughout most of New York trade. Gold plummeted over $3 in the last minutes of trade before rebounding to end the session unchanged at $423.10. Silver also fell off in the last minutes of trade, but remained slightly higher to gain $0.02 to $6.93 on the day.
Gold and silver equities traded a little over 1% higher this morning before dropping to near unchanged in early afternoon trade, but then rebounding to end the day with gains.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
XAU | 92.16 | +0.42% |
HUI | 200.22 | +1.00% |
GDM | 647.00 | +0.79% |
More Precious Metals Analysis:
“The gold bulls have to be very disappointed as the gold market failed to hold the gains in the wake of the terrorism event and in the end saw the Dollar recovery most of the early losses. While some in the trade fear even more events the mere discussion of debt relief for impoverished countries at the G8 undermined gold. However, we were somewhat impressed with the action in silver and platinum on Thursday as they mostly held together in the wake of the fall back in gold prices. Some traders suggest that the sharp decline in oil prices truncated the threat of inflation, which in turn caused some gold funds to exit positions.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting
Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:
NovaGold’s completed C$62.6 million bought deal financing and an Indonesian court ruling on mining companies were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. ARIZONA STAR | AZS.V +17.07% $4.80 |
2. Seabridge Gold | SA +13.64% $3.00 |
3. Cumberland | CLG +6.17% $1.17 |
LOSERS
1. IMA EXP. | IMR -5.11% $2.60 |
2. CARDERO | CDY -3.41% $2.55 |
3. Miramar Mining | MNG -2.54% $1.15 |
Note: Winners & Losers Will No Longer Track Stocks Under $1.
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- Written by Chris Mullen
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© Gold Seeker 2005
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-- Posted Thursday, 7 July 2005 | Digg This Article
Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold Gives Up Gains, Markets Rally from Lows
