-- Posted Tuesday, 30 August 2005 | Digg This Article
Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:
Consumer Confidence for August came in higher than the expected 101 and rose from July’s revised mark of 103.6 to 105.6. This comes in contrast “to a University of Michigan survey last week that showed the biggest drop in sentiment in more than year.” Apparent job growth and rising incomes overcame rising gas prices to make for a positive report.
Factory Orders for July fell less than the expected 2.3% drop with a 1.9% drop, though it is still the largest drop in orders in more than a year. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7%.
FOMC minutes from their August 9 meeting showed inflationary concerns from high energy prices, but also showed that the fed remains relatively optimistic overall. “It appeared that, for now, continued removal of policy accommodation at a measured pace still would likely be sufficient to keep inflation contained, but participants also recognize that the pace and cumulative extent of policy adjustment going forward would depend importantly on economic developments.”
Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings the preliminary estimate for 2nd quarter GDP expected at 3.4%. The Chain Deflator is expected at 2.4%. At 10AM is Chicago PMI for August expected at 61.0.
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Oil traded higher the entire day as reports came in about the extensive damage caused by Katrina. Numerous refineries and platforms are damaged and shut down with no estimates yet as to when they will reopen. Oil made a new record intraday high at $70.85 before dropping off as news came that some refineries may be coming back up, at least on a partial basis. Oil also made a new record closing high with a gain of $2.61 to $69.81. Natural gas and unleaded gasoline futures also made new record highs. Gasoline futures were actually halted at one point because prices exceeded a 25 cent limit up move. After the limit was raised, trading resumed and gas continued to move higher, ending the day with a gain of 41.39 cents or 20.1% to $2.4745.
Treasuries again rose on speculation that high energy prices will slow economic growth, pushing the yield on the 10-year to new 7 week lows.
Treasuries | Close | Gain/Loss |
10-Year Note Yield | 4.09% | -0.083 |
September 2005 Bond | 117 22/32 | +25/32 |
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P started off lower and continued to drop throughout morning trade before rebounding a bit in afternoon trade as oil came off its highs.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
Dow | 10412.82 | -0.48% |
Nasdaq | 2129.76 | -0.37% |
S&P | 1208.41 | -0.32% |
Among the big names making news in the market today were Time Warner, Ford, Sprint Nextel, CNOOC, Zale, Federated and May, Morgan Stanley, Merill, Citigroup, and the insurers.
The U.S. dollar index found slight gains overnight and retained those gains after strong Consumer Confidence data. The yen dropped to 3 week lows as the high price of oil affects Japan greatly.
Currency | Close | Gain/Loss |
U.S. Dollar Index | 88.34 | +0.13 |
Euro Index | 122.10 | -0.20 |
Yen | 89.81 | -0.64 |
Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com:
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 5,949,338 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 111,424,982 | - |
Gold traded slightly lower in Asian and early London trade before extending its losses in late London and early New York trade, falling to as low as $428.50 before rebounding slightly and ending lower by $6.10 to $430.30, a new one month low. Silver traded mostly lower in choppy trade in Asia and London before making new lows in New York, but then rebounding into the close to lose just $0.02 to $6.75, ending above its 7 month low of $6.67 made last Friday.
The CRB Index made another new 24 year high, gaining 7.96 points to 331.19. The historic record high hit 24 years ago is at about 335.
Gold and silver equities fell about 2% at the open before slowly rebounding throughout the day, but then falling off again in the last minutes of trade to end near their lows.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
XAU | 93.43 | -1.18% |
HUI | 198.79 | -1.88% |
GDM | 647.01 | -1.61% |
More Precious Metals Analysis:
“The gold market came under significant liquidation pressure off the continued rise in the Dollar, technical liquidation pressure from an overly long fund and small spec positioning and finally because of a deflationary mentality. In fact, for those that were long gold and silver off the flight to quality argument, the action Tuesday had to be very discouraging because crude oil prices were up nearly $3.00 and equity prices were under pressure but yet players simply didn't look to gold as a store of value. It is still a little surprising that the Dollar has been able to rise in an environment of uncertainty in the US and that is perhaps the most surprising development of the last three weeks.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting
Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:
Agnico-Eagle’s takeover bid for Riddarhyttan Resources being opposed by investors, NovaGold’s drill results from Galore Creek, Ivanhoe’s efforts to have the Globe and Mail correct errors of fact and misrepresentations in a July 28th story, Gold Fields’ end to a strike in Ghana, and Silver Wheaton’s acquisition of more Bear Creek Mining Shares were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. SILVERCORP | SVM.V +10.57% $3.66 |
2. Randgold | RANGE +3.13% $1.32 |
3. ENDEAVOUR | EDR.V +1.52% $2.00 |
LOSERS
1. Miramar | MNG -4.88% $1.17 |
2. Crystallex | KRY -4.72% $2.42 |
3. Golden Star | GSS -4.38% $2.84 |
Note: Winners & Losers Will No Longer Track Stocks Under $1.
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- Written by Chris Mullen
The Gold Seeker Closing Report is a free edition providing a daily wrap-up of gold & gold-related news. For more in-depth analysis of the gold markets, subscribe to The Gold Forecaster.
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-- Posted Tuesday, 30 August 2005 | Digg This Article
Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gas Surges 20% Higher
