-- Posted Thursday, 15 September 2005 | Digg This Article
Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:
CPI for August came in as expected at 0.5%, though Core CPI came in less than the expected 0.2% at 0.1%, easing inflation fears for the time before the impact of Hurricane Katrina.
Initial Jobless Claims for 9/10 came in higher than the expected 350,000 at 398,000 with about 68,000 claims attributed to Hurricane Katrina. The jump in claims of 71,000 from last week’s upwardly revised number is the largest in 9 years. Business Inventories for July came in less than the expected 0.1% at -0.5%. Sales jumped 1.1%.
The New York Empire State Index for September came in higher than the expected 15.5 at 17.0. The Philadelphia Fed for September came in lower than the expected 13.3 at just 2.2. The 2 manufacturing indexes give different signals for their respective areas, though the Philadelphia index is historically a much better indicator for manufacturing growth for the nation as a whole.
Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings the second quarter Current Account expected at -$193.0 billion. At 9AM are Net Foreign Purchases (Treasury International Capital (TIC) data which shows whether the U.S. is attracting enough foreign funds to cover its trade deficit). At 9:45AM is the preliminary reading for September Michigan Sentiment expected at 85.0.
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The gold price is an amalgam of diverse and changing influences, from Currencies to Jewellery, from Investors to Speculators. From Asia, to India, to Australia, to Canada, to South Africa, to the U.S.A. and to Asia, the gold price is of interest to all. It cannot be seen in isolation as a metal, but must be understood as a Global Thermometer measuring monetary, political, economic, stability as well as the raw demand / supply features of the metal itself. These factors do not merely add up to the price, but interact in sometimes strange ways, to produce the gold price. For example, rising prices often lead consequently to rising demand, as the appetite for the metal grows. Its price may rise in one currency and fall in another, at the same time. Overall, it reacts sensitively to the overall level of global stability, which, in turn, gives us the gold price.
It is our task in this letter to track these different features, giving you both the Technical Analysis and the fundamental features impacting on the gold price each week along with a T.A. focus on metal equities. It is our goal to help you to understand and profit from this market, wherever you are on this globe, in a professional manner.
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Oil started off the day higher, but quickly moved lower to find losses on the day on signs of slowing demand. Oil ended with a loss of $0.34 to $64.75.
“Treasury debt prices fell on Thursday despite a plunge in Mid-Atlantic factory activity as a huge jump in prices paid by manufacturers stoked fears of rising inflation.” The yield on the 10 year rose to over 3 week highs.
Treasuries | Close | Gain/Loss |
10-Year Note Yield | 4.214% | +0.046 |
September 2005 Bond | 115 21/32 | -21/32 |
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P traded mixed and near unchanged as traders digested economic data and debated future fed moves.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
Dow | 10558.75 | +0.13% |
Nasdaq | 2146.15 | -0.15% |
S&P | 1227.73 | +0.05% |
Among the big names making news in the market today were MasterCard, Dana Corp., UICI, Bear Sterns, Newell Rubbermaid, Time Warner, Delta, and Northwest.
The U.S. dollar index found decent gains as economic data reinforced the view that the fed will raise rates next week. Preparation for tomorrow’s TIC data also dominated trade. The dollar made a new 2 week high as the euro made a new 2 week low.
Currency | Close | Gain/Loss |
U.S. Dollar Index | 88.12 | +0.47 |
Euro Index | 122.16 | -0.58 |
Yen | 90.37 | -0.28 |
Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com:
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 6,002,611 | +3,022 |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 116,819,684 | - |
Gold traded mixed and near unchanged in Asian and early London trade before surging higher in late London/early New York trade despite a stronger dollar. It then held around $453 before jumping above $455 heading into the close, ending near its highs of the session at a new 9 month high with a gain of $5.30 to $454.70. Gold now sits just $1 from what would be a new 17 year closing high at $455.70. Silver traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London and found nice gains in early New York trade, but it later fell off to find losses on the day before rebounding into the close and ending with a gain of $0.03 to $7.01.
Gold and silver equities extended their 9 month highs, jumping higher at the open and remaining near their highs throughout trade.
Index | Close | Gain/Loss |
XAU | 106.46 | +1.68% |
HUI | 229.19 | +1.60% |
GDM | 745.84 | +1.85% |
More Precious Metals Analysis:
“Gold prices exploded to a 17 year high and might have done so off the combination of what we would call "creeping" inflation fears and renewed fund buying interest. With the CPI report showing inflation but not showing as much inflation as was feared it is possible that the gold market is looking at ongoing ultra high energy prices and is simply anticipating future inflation. Some players might also have been buying gold off the idea that something significantly disconcerting is developing in the US Treasury market, which futures longs hold way more supply than the Fed thinks is available. In other words, there could have been some gold buying off flight to quality concerns associated with the US Treasury supply.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting
Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:
Nevsun’s exploration program in Eritrea, Crystallex’s plans to move forward in Venezuela, Newmont’s optimism over settling its lawsuit in Indonesia, Barrick’s gold pour at another new mine in Argentina, Placer Dome’s Cortex Hills project approval in Nevada, Eldorado’s Environmental Positive Certificate in Turkey, Randgold’s director increase in holdings, and Desert Sun’s high grade intersections in Brazil were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Minefinders | MFN +24.37% $4.90 |
2. Seabridge | SA +12.2% $4.69 |
3. DRDGold | DROOY +10.69% $1.45 |
LOSERS
1. Crystallex | KRY -5.12% $2.41 |
2. Rio Narcea | RNO -2.74% $1.42 |
3. Northern Dynasty | NAK -2.16% $3.62 |
Note: Winners & Losers Will No Longer Track Stocks Under $1.
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- Written by Chris Mullen
The Gold Seeker Closing Report is a free edition providing a daily wrap-up of gold & gold-related news. For more in-depth analysis of the gold markets, subscribe to The Gold Forecaster.
All sources are given within the report and most articles can be found as they are released at http://www.capitalupdates.com/, http://www.goldseek.com/, http://www.silverseek.com/, and http://www.goldreview.com/.
© Gold Seeker 2005
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-- Posted Thursday, 15 September 2005 | Digg This Article
Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Surge
