-- Posted Thursday, 13 October 2005 | Digg This Article

Market Analysis from CapitalUpdates.com:

Import Prices for September jumped 2.3%, marking the biggest gain since 1990, as oil prices rose following the hurricanes.  Excluding oil, Import Prices still rose 1.2% which makes it the “largest since record-keeping started in January 1989 because of increases in natural gas prices.”  Export Prices rose 0.9%.

The Trade Deficit was not quite as large at the expected -$59.5 billion at $59.0 billion, but it was still the 3^rd largest deficit on record.  This brings the Trade Deficit for the year so far to -$463.4 billion versus -$396.4 billion for the same period last year and puts the US on track to eclipse last year's record imbalance of $617.6 billion.  Imports from China rose to $22.4 billion while exports to China totaled just $3.9 billion.  This makes for the largest Trade Deficit with China ever at $18.5 billion.  The US also ran record trade deficits with “the European Union, OPEC and South and Central American countries in August.”

Initial Jobless Claims dropped 2,000 from last week’s 391,000 to 389,000, but they still came in much higher than the expected 360,000.  The total job losses attributed to the twin hurricanes have now climbed to 438,000.

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST is CPI for September expected at 0.9% and Core CPI expected at 0.2%.  Also at 8:30 are Retail Sales for September expected at 0.5%.  Excluding auto sales, they are expected at 0.8%.  At 9:15 are Capacity Utilization for September expected at 79.4% and Industrial Production expected at -0.4%.  At 9:45 is the preliminary reading for October Michigan Sentiment expected at 80.0.  At 10AM are Business Inventories for August expected at 0.2%.  The Treasury Budget was delayed until 2PM tomorrow and is expected at $37.0 billion.

Oil started off the day lower before the inventory reports that saw crude inventories build 1 million barrels, gasoline inventories fall 2.7 million barrels, distillate stocks fall 3.4 million barrels, and natural gas stocks increase by 58 billion cubic feet.  After initially climbing to near unchanged on the day, oil again began to fall back off to make new lows on the day as traders looked deeper into the report and saw signs of demand falling off.  Oil ended with a loss of $1.04 to $63.08.

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Treasuries dropped as inflation concerns continue to lead most to believe that the fed will continue to raise interest rates.  The yield on the 10-year climbed to new 6 month highs.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P started off mixed  before falling off in early afternoon trade, but all three indices rallied into the close to end mixed and near unchanged.

Among the big names making news in the market today were Samsung, Refco, Comair, Tribune, HCA, Fairchild Semiconductor, and Google, Comcast, and AOL.

The U.S. dollar index gained on the surge in Import Prices that stirred up further inflation fears and reinforced the view that the fed will continue to raise interest rates.  The dollar also rose as the Trade Deficit was not as bad as some had expected, but the index did cut its gains by the end of trade on profit taking after hitting over 2 month highs intraday.  The yen dropped to over 2 year lows.

Gold & Silver Report from GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com: 

Gold started off lower in Access trade late yesterday before rising in Asia to find slight gains, but it then fell off throughout trade in London and New York before a small rebound into the close that brought it back above $470.  Silver traded mostly slightly lower throughout trade in Asia and London before finding further losses in late New York trade that led it to close with an over 1% loss.

Gold and silver equities fell around 4% in morning trade before rebounding in the afternoon to end with less than 2% losses.

More Precious Metals Analysis:

“The metals markets continued to see liquidation pressure from what seemed to be a number of fronts. First of all, the failure of various chart support levels seemed to apply pressure to the longs and with the Dollar soaring to new highs for the move on Thursday and energy prices falling again we suspect that the metals could exhibit more weakness ahead. On the other hand, the equity market managed to reverse course and in the process that could help shore up expectations for ongoing physical demand.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:

Crystallex’s draw down notice to Azimuth Opportunity, Glencairn’s record monthly gold sales, Orezone’s Hounde belt gold properties, Newmont’s Martabe gold prospect in Indonesia, Ivanhoe’s project in Mongolia, NovaGold’s 3^rd quarter results and conference call, Golden Star’s scheduled 3^rd quarter earnings conference call, and IMA’s silver intersection at Loma de al Plata were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

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- Written by Chris Mullen

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed stocks that trade over $1.

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-- Posted Thursday, 13 October 2005 | Digg This Article

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