-- Posted Wednesday, 4 October 2006 | Digg This Article
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $561.50 | -$14.90 |
Silver | $10.66 | -$0.24 |
XAU | 122.06 | +1.20% |
HUI | 285.53 | +1.01% |
GDM | 915.20 | +0.93% |
JSE Gold | 2798.38 | +0.44% |
USD | 85.82 | +0.09 |
Euro | 126.99 | -0.27 |
Yen | 84.75 | -0.05 |
Oil | $59.55 | +$0.87 |
10-Year | 4.565% | -0.051 |
T-Bond | 113.00 | +0.4375 |
Dow | 11850.61 | +1.05% |
Nasdaq | 2290.95 | +2.11% |
S&P | 1350.22 | +1.21% |
The Metals:
Gold remained near unchanged in Asia and rose a bit in London to come into New York a few dollars higher, but it then fell off throughout morning New York trade and remained near its lows in afternoon trade to close with a loss of 2.59%. Silver also found slight gains in early New York trade before it fell to as low as $10.53 and then rebounded slightly into the close, but it sill ended with a loss of 2.20%.
Euro gold fell under €445, platinum lost $41 to $1,072, palladium lost $7 to $292, and copper fell a few cents to about $3.27.
Gold and silver equities fell in late morning trade to find nearly 3% losses by early afternoon, but they then rallied into the close and ended about 1% higher.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Factory Orders | Aug | 0.0% | -0.2% | -1.0% |
ISM Services | Sep | 52.9 | 56.0 | 57.0 |
Bernanke spoke to the Economics Club of Washington today about “a substantial correction going on in the housing market,” and noted that the fed is “concerned about inflation.” He also urged policy makers to put Social Security and Medicare on a “sound fiscal footing.” Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks on the economy tonight to the New York University Money Marketeers Club. Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST are Initial jobless Claims for 9/30 expected at 315,000.
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The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil fell after inventories came in better than expected and showed crude inventories built 3.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories built 1.2 million barrels, and distillates built 200,000 barrels, but energy prices rose in later trade as news of a fire fight in Nigeria increased geopolitical worries and U.S. refiners trimmed their output.
The U.S. dollar index rose on remarks last night from Hoenig about inflation being “too high,” but it then pared its gains following Bernanke’s comments late in the trading session today.
Treasuries rose after a private report suggested poor employment figures in the government’s report this Friday. Bonds extended their gains following a poor ISM Services report and ended with decent gains as the yield on the 10-year fell back near 7 month lows.
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P rose throughout trade and ended over 1% higher as poor economic data reignited speculation that the fed may not only not raise interest rates, but may even cut interest rates. The Dow set new record intraday and closing highs. The Nasdaq closed at a 4 and ½ month high and the S&P closed at a 5 and ½ year high.
Among the big names making news in the market today were XM, Sirius, GM, Renault, Nissan, Airbus, EADS, ImClone, and Wal-Mart.
The Commentary:
“What to say after this massacre?
Simple … the worst nightmare scenario going into the US elections next month has now fully played out. Unfortunately, it blatantly reveals just how manipulated the gold market is and how desperate the Bush Administration is to do what they can not to lose control of Congress. This is literally a life and death time epic struggle for the President. As a result of Woodward’s book and the Foley scandal, the latest polls show the Republicans can possibly lose control of both the House and Senate. Should that ever occur, the inevitable investigations into the Iraq quagmire could possibly lead to the impeachment and resignation of President Bush … and the Administration knows it.
…
What is so important to keep in mind is what we are witnessing here is ALL ABOUT the coming elections. They will be over in a month. So will the gold/silver debacle we are enduring.” - From yesterday’s Midas report by Bill Murphy of LemetropoleCafe.com
“December Gold finished down 14.8 at 566.7, 19 off the high and 3.2 up from the low.
December Silver closed down 0.25 at 10.795. This was 0.145 up from the low and 0.265 off the high.
While the gold market tried to reject the brunt of the selling pressure on Wednesday the psychology in the marketplace was at times dominatingly bearish. In addition to the US numbers giving off more signs of slowing and the US Fed Chairman rekindling concerns of a US housing sector led contraction there was certainly a bit of commodity fund selling and perhaps deflationary selling. In fact, with oil prices showing significant weakness early in the session the market was certainly presented with an early case of fresh deflationary psychology. According to the Press the market also was hit with concentrated stop loss selling interest, which seemed to coincide with the sharp decline in copper and oil prices. In other words, the longs were attacked from both the technical and fundamental perspective. While few people follow the 300 day moving average, the December gold contract did manage to fall below that extremely long term indicator.
As in the gold market the December silver contract fell below the 300 day moving average and that is typically a sign of some major negative psychology. Certainly more evidence of slowing in the US stats, lower oil prices and a higher Dollar contributed to the slide, but one has to think that technical stop loss selling exaggerated the action Wednesday. However, some might see the US Fed dialogue as a sign that deflationary conditions are a possible outcome for silver, if the US housing sector manages to totally up end the economy. It is a little surprising that macro economic sentiment in some markets is so conclusively negative on a day in which the Dow managed to definitively carve out another new high.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting
$XAU Technical Condition. 10/03/2006
SilverStrategies.com 3 Year Chart:
What we know is that the Gold & Silver Index is still above its major support level despite the recent HEAVY SELL-OFF; It still has room to go as low as 120 and 110. If it does so then we should accumulate Gold & Silver shares more aggressively then we could do NOW...
2 Year Chart:
Closer look at $XAU helps to spot the NON-CONFIRMATION between two technical indicators and the Index: The Positive Divergence of RSI conflicts with the "Dead Cross" of 200/50 Moving Averages which is probably more bearish rather then bullish for $XAU; But more discounts in Gold & Silver Sector is a GOOD NEWS!
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GATA Posts:
Turk interviewed on strange selloff; new Grandich Letter
Michael Nystrom: The Dow's phony new high
Despite blue-chip gains, hedge funds are faltering and closing
More notice for U.S. government's political intervention in markets
Ted Butler: Extreme liquidation
Jim Sinclair: Politically inspired market intervention may break the bank
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 10/03/2006
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 7,889,388 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 105,220,490 | - |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) | Streettracks Gold Shares | 386.38 | 12,422,498 | US$ 7,230m |
LSE (London Stock Exchange) AND Euronext Paris | Gold Bullion Securities | 78.15 | 2,512,713 | US$ 1,425m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 9.94 | 319,486 | US$ 181m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 9.89 | 317,906 | US$ 185m |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)
Profile as of 10/03/2006 | |
Total Net Assets | $798,522,821 | Ounces of Gold
in Trust | 1,386,124.118 |
Shares Outstanding | 13,950,000 | Tonnes of Gold
in Trust | 43.11 |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV)
Profile as of 10/03/2006 | |
Total Net Assets | $1,182,485,787 | Ounces of Silver
in Trust | 104,323,655 |
Shares Outstanding | 10,450,000 | Tonnes of Silver
in Trust | 3,244.8 |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
The Stocks:
Barrick’s (ABX) priced $1 billion copper-linked notes, Newmont’s (NEM) cleanup costs, Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) dividends, and Sterling Mining’s (SRLM.OB) purchase of Essential Metals Corporation interest in the Big Creek tailings facility were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Harmony | HM+6.01% $13.58 |
2. Cambior | CBJ +4.69% $3.57 |
3. NovaGold | NG +4.30% $15.75 |
LOSERS
1. DRDGOLD | DROOY-6.15% $1.22 |
2. New Gold | NGD -5.97% $6.62 |
3. Crystallex | KRY -4.98% $2.67 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
All of today's gold and silver stock news:
Barrick Prices $1 Billion of Copper-Linked Notes - "Barrick Gold Corporation announced today the pricing of $1 billion of copper-linked notes (the "Barrick Notes") comprised of $400 million of 5.75% notes due 2016 and $600 million of 6.35% notes due 2036. The offering of these notes is expected to close on or about October 12, 2006." More
- October 04, 2006 | Item | E-mail
Baltic Resources Inc. Corporate Update - More
- October 04, 2006 | Item | E-mail
Stellar Pacific Ventures Inc.: First Resources Estimate at Vassan - More
- October 04, 2006 | Item | E-mail
Nortec (NVT) subsidiary commences diamond drilling on Ganarin Epithermal Gold-Silver Project, Southern Ecuador - More
- October 04, 2006 | Item | E-mail
Benton (BTC) Receives Further Encouraging Results of Platinum, Palladium and Gold From Area 41 Zone - More
- October 04, 2006 | Item | E-mail
Gold Seeker Closing Report – Gold & Silver Fall Over 2%; Miners Gain 1%