Note: Monday is Canada's Thanksgiving Day and the Canadian markets will be closed.Monday is also Columbus Day in the US and banks, government offices, and the bond market is closed, but the US stock markets are open as usual.
Close
Gain/Loss
On Week
Gold
$572.20
+$1.00
-4.43%
Silver
$11.08
+$0.11
-2.89%
XAU
124.20
-0.58%
-3.29%
HUI
291.95
-0.58%
-2.84%
GDM
931.91
-0.65%
-3.71%
JSE Gold
2847.80
-0.23%
+1.59%
USD
86.54
+0.63
+0.66%
Euro
126.07
-0.89
-0.59%
Yen
84.12
-0.91
-0.66%
Oil
$59.76
-$0.27
-5.01%
10-Year
4.696%
+0.088
+1.36%
Bond
111.5625
-0.9375
-0.75%
Dow
11850.21
-0.14%
+1.47%
Nasdaq
2299.99
-0.28%
+1.84%
S&P
1349.58
-0.27%
+1.03%
The Metals:
Gold remained near unchanged in a range of about $569-$573 in Asia and London before it fell in early New York trade to as low as $559.80 at one point, but it then rallied into the close and ended slightly higher on the day.Silver traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it fell in morning New York trade to as low as $10.75 at one point, but it also rallied into the close and ended with a gain of 1%.
Euro gold rose above €455, platinum lost $5 to $1,070, palladium gained $2 to $297, and copper rose over 5 cents to about $3.42.
Gold and silver equities fell about 2% in the first ½ hour of trade and then quickly rallied higher to find slight gains about a ½ hour later, but they then slowly fell back off a bit and ended with about 0.5% losses.
The Economy:
Report
For
Reading
Expected
Previous
Nonfarm Payrolls
Sep
51K
120K
188K
Unemployment Rate
Sep
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
Hourly Earnings
Sep
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
Average Workweek
Sep
33.8
33.8
33.8
Consumer Credit
Aug
$4.99B
$5.5B
$8.35B
While September’s Nonfarm Payrolls came in much less than expected (including a BLS net birth/death adjustment of adding 28,000 payrolls), upward revisions to past payroll data suggested strength in the economy and offset September’s shortfall.August’s data was revised up by 60,000 payrolls and “job growth during the 12 months ended in March may have been about 45 percent higher than previously reported. In a preliminary estimate, the Labor Department said payrolls for the 12 months ended in March 2006 will be revised higher by 810,000, the biggest revision since the Labor Department started benchmarking numbers in 1991.”
“Separately, the Economic Cycle Research Institute says its Future Inflation Gauge dropped to 120.3 in September, marking a 14-month low. That compares to an August figure of 121.7.”
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Next week’s economic highlights include the Treasury Budget and Wholesale Inventories on Tuesday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, the Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, and the fed’s Beige Book on Thursday, and Export Prices, Import Prices, Retail Sales, Michigan Sentiment, and Business Inventories on Friday.
Oil fell on ample supplies as OPEC has so far not officially announced a deal to cut output.
The U.S. dollar index rose and treasuries fell despite September’s weak payroll data as hopes for a possible interest rate cut were diminished by upward revisions to past payroll data.
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P fell as September’s payrolls came in much less than expected.Bad news used to be good news for the major indices as it raised hopes that the fed would stop raising interest rates or possibly even cut rates, but huge upward revisions to prior payroll data indicate that the economy is strong and influences the fed to not only not cut rates, but maybe even consider hiking them again. Given all of this, today’s bad news was simply just bad news for the markets again.
Among the big names making news in the market Friday were GM and Renault-Nissan, Google and YouTube, Rolls-Royce, Atlas Copco, Chattem and J&J and Pfizer, CrownCastle and Global Signal, Cerberus, and Amaranth.
The Commentary:
“What this suggests is The Gold Cartel crowd is running out of enough available physical supply to keep the price down for extended periods of time. Yes, they can bomb both markets with derivatives and a tranche of gold and silver physical here and there, but they don’t have enough sustained supply to keep the prices down. Demand is just too strong. They must retreat and attack again, using every trick in the book to win the day for a few weeks or months.
A specific example of this was offered to us by the Bundesbank’s Weber, who just admitted some central banks were (are) looking to swap gold with his bank to bomb the market. Did he comply? Either way, it shows some one was (is) in urgent need to secure physical supply of gold. Thus, IMO, we are coming closer to the day (either the weeks before or after the US elections) in which the prices of gold and silver go bonkers, as the bad guys are forced to retreat for many months to come … at least until gold and silver make multi-year highs.”- From yesterday’s Midas report byBill Murphy of LemetropoleCafe.com
“December Gold finished up 1.3 at 576.8, 1.5 off the high and 12.3 up from the low.
December Silver closed up 0.105 at 11.175. This was 0.305 up from the low and 0.035 off the high.
The gold market was fortunate to have avoided more significant selling pressure on Friday, as the outside market forces were patently negative. In fact, in addition to a disappointing Non-farm Payroll reading, the gold market also saw another moderate failure in oil prices and what could be considered a critical upside breakout in the US Dollar. While there were some indications that the US was poised to Press the UN for action toward North Korea, the gold market only seemed to give passing interest to the prospect for flight to quality buying. In the end, the gold trade must have accepted the Treasury markets interpretation of the US payrolls, which somehow managed to see the numbers as generally supportive to ongoing growth in the economy. Some traders suggested that the recovery action in oil prices after an initial washout left the message that oil prices might have actually found a bottom and that would certainly help to underpin gold prices.
Given the typical fundamental focus in silver it is quite surprising that prices held together during the action Friday. However, a strong rally in the copper market seemed to give the silver trade confidence and some have even suggested that the outlook for the US economy is holding together well enough that international demand for silver might be expected to underpin prices above the recent lows. Certainly Indian demand has recently been rumored to be supporting the market and certainly the return of China to normal trade in the coming week might inspire some value hunting buying. With the silver market generally finishing the week minimally above the level where the last positioning report was measured its possible that the trade will accept the idea that the spec and fund long position is showing signs of leveling out and that might be considered by some, to be a technical signal of an impending low.”- The Hightower Report,Futures Analysis and Forecasting
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)
Profile as of 10/05/2006
Total Net Assets
$791,161,591
Ounces of Gold in Trust
1,385,649.968
Shares Outstanding
13,950,000
Tonnes of Gold in Trust
43.10
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV)
Profile as of 10/05/2006
Total Net Assets
$1,142,804,965
Ounces of Silver in Trust
104,277,935
Shares Outstanding
10,450,000
Tonnes of Silver in Trust
3,243.4
Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 1.4 tonnes were removed from the trust.
The Stocks:
A report that Northern Dynasty’s (NAK) Pebble mine would destroy salmon spawning areas, the arrest of 43 illegal miners at Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) mine in Indonesia, Orezone’s (OZN
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – Gold & Silver Lose Over 4% & 2% on the Week
“What this suggests is The Gold Cartel crowd is running out of enough available physical supply to keep the price down for extended periods of time. Yes, they can bomb both markets with derivatives and a tranche of gold and silver physical here and there, but they don’t have enough sustained supply to keep the prices down. Demand is just too strong. They must retreat and attack again, using every trick in the book to win the day for a few weeks or months. 
