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Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – Gold & Silver Fall 1% on the Day; Gain on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker


-- Posted Friday, 20 October 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

 

Close

Gain/Loss

On Week

Gold

$592.80

-$6.00

+0.66%

Silver

$11.88

-$0.16

+2.68%

XAU

128.79

-2.08%

-0.19%

HUI

301.79

-2.28%

-0.52%

GDM

969.65

-1.96%

+0.06%

JSE Gold

2808.92

+1.76%

+1.34%

USD

86.31

+0.06

-0.95%

Euro

126.16

-0.18

+0.81%

Yen

84.23

-0.44

+0.78%

Oil

$56.82

-$1.68

-3.20%

10-Year

4.784%

-0.002

-0.46%

Bond

110.625

+0.03125

+0.25%

Dow

12002.37

-0.08%

+0.35%

Nasdaq

2342.30

+0.06%

-0.64%

S&P

1368.60

+0.12%

+0.22%

 

The Metals:

 

CoT Reports Released: Gold | Silver

 

Gold traded on either side of $600 in Asia, fell a few dollars in London, dropped another few dollars in New York, and closed near its lows with a 1% loss.  Silver traded near $12.00 in Asia and London before it fell about 10 cents in New York and ended near its lows with a loss of 1.33%.

 

Euro gold fell back to €470, platinum lost $10 to $1,077, palladium lost $9 to $324, and copper fell a few cents to about $3.49.

 

Gold and silver equities fell about 1.5% in the first hour of trade, remained near their lows for most of trade, and closed with about 2% losses.

 

The Economy:

 

There were no major economic reports today.

 

All of this week’s economic reports:

 

Philadelphia Fed - October

-0.7 v. -0.4

 

Leading Indicators - September

0.1% v. -0.2%

 

Initial Claims - 10/14

299K v. 309K

 

Housing Starts - September

1772K v. 1674K

 

Building Permits - September

1619K v. 1727K

 

CPI - September

-0.5% v. 0.2%

 

Core CPI - September

0.2% v. 0.2%

 

Capacity Utilization - September

81.9% v. 82.5%

 

Industrial Production - September

-0.6% v. 0.0%

 

Net Foreign Purchases - August

$116.8B v. $32.9B

 

PPI - September

-1.3% v. 0.1%

 

Core PPI - September

0.6% v. -0.4%

 

NY Empire State Index - October

22.9 v. 13.8

 

Next week’s economic highlights include Existing Home Sales and the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, the Help-Wanted Index, and New Home Sales on Thursday, and Q3 GDP and Michigan Sentiment on Friday.

 

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The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil opened briefly higher after OPEC officially cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day which was slightly higher than expected, but it then fell off throughout the rest of trade and ended about 3% lower at an 11 month low on skepticism that OPEC will not actually follow through on the cut.

 

With no economic news to act on, the U.S. dollar index and treasuries remained near unchanged as traders looked ahead to next week’s fed meeting.

 

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P fell on mostly poor earnings reports at the open, but all three indices steadily rose throughout trade as oil fell and the Nasdaq and S&P ended slightly higher while the Dow ended a bit lower.

 

Among the big names making news in the market Friday were Google, 3M, Caterpillar, Merck, Schlumberger, and Schering-Plough.

 

The Commentary:

 

“The Gold Cartel has done a masterful job in "setting up" the various types of funds. They are very short relative to their historical positions in the gold and silver markets. With the cash market so firm, and the specs so short, and the elections less than 3 weeks away, we have a setup for gold and silver to move higher and then explode … as the spec shorts get squeezed and then go LONG!

 

That is, and has been, the scenario recently … one that has been building, which is why the gold open interest has gradually moved up, instead of liquidating. It went up again yesterday, this time rising 2230 contracts to 332,105.

 

The unfolding of that scenario began in earnest this morning on the Comex. After the price capping of late, and the goofy Comex close yesterday, the physical buyers took a look-see early in London. The AM Fix came in at $589.75 up slightly, with silver at $11.62, off sharply. As things would have it, the relentless cash buying and keeping the gold price steady (silver too) was enough for "the funds" to BEGIN covering this morning on the Comex. After trading on the downside, both gold and silver took off and kept on going.”- From yesterday’s Midas report by Bill Murphy of LemetropoleCafe.com

 

“December Gold finished down 6.1 at 596.4, 6.4 off the high and 1.9 up from the low.

 

December Silver closed down 0.195 at 11.965. This was 0.075 up from the low and 0.185 off the high.

 

While seeing December gold prices manage a second daily trade above the $600 level was initially supportive to the gold market, the trade was certainly undermined by the inability to hold above the $600 level. However, seeing the oil market basically thumb its nose at the recent OPEC move to reduce production certainly prompted some long profit taking in the gold market. Some traders also pointed to significant weakness in other physical commodity markets and to the slide in equity prices as a reason to bank long profits. With the Dollar seemingly making an attempt to bounce, one might even suggest that the currency markets were indirectly responsible for a portion of the selling pressure in gold. While one probably wouldn't describe the environment Friday as deflationary, seeing the OECD forecast for slower 2007 world growth and lower oil demand might have been undermining for gold prices.

 

In addition to the weakness from the gold market, the silver market was also presented with aggressive selling in the copper market and those two outside market conditions could have really turned up the selling pressure in the silver market. Some players suggested that the ability to avoid even more selling in the silver market in the face of declines in copper and the equity market seems to suggest that the silver market is perhaps closer to a technical balance than many might have expected after the 52 cent October low to high rally.”- The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 10/19/2006

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

7,694,286

-898

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

105451212

-4,999

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX)

Streettracks Gold Shares

390.26

12,547,364

US$ 7,492m

LSE (London Stock Exchange) AND Euronext Paris

Gold Bullion Securities

82.34

2,647,253

US$ 1,568m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

9.98

320,730

US$ 190m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

9.89

317,851

US$ 189m

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data:  The LSE added 1.56 tonnes.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 10/19/2006

 

Total Net Assets

$829,836,398

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

1,385,649.968

Shares Outstanding

13,950,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

43.10

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 10/19/2006

 

Total Net Assets

$1,199,809,441

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

103,280,281

Shares Outstanding

10,350,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

3,212.4

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

The Stocks:

 

Barrick’s (ABX) extended bid for Pioneer (PSM.TO), Banro’s (BAA) corporate update, IRC’s (ROY) listing on the American stock exchange, and IMA’s (IMR) timeline of appeal were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines Friday.

 

WINNERS

1.  IRC

ROY +5.68% $4.65

2.  Rio Narcea

RNO +4.65% $2.70

3.  Entree Gold

EGI +3.71% $1.6594

 

LOSERS

1.  Meridian

MDG -3.18% $24.04

2.  DRDGOLD

DROOY-3.08% $1.26

3.  Goldcorp

GG -2.94% $23.13

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today's gold and silver stock news:

Jourdan to Option Uranium Play from 48th North Capital and Sediamek - More
- October 20, 2006 | Item | E-mail