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Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain Over 6% on the Week While Dow Falls Over 6%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com


-- Posted Friday, 20 February 2009 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | | Source: GoldSeek.com

 

Close

Gain/Loss

On Week

Gold

$999.20

+$24.55

+6.28%

Silver

$14.465

+$0.48

+6.13%

XAU

132.64

+3.73%

+1.34%

HUI

321.45

+3.66%

+3.31%

GDM

1018.70

+4.03%

+3.63%

JSE Gold

2905.93

+45.49

+7.12%

USD

86.49

-1.09

+0.55%

Euro

128.45

+1.70

-0.27%

Yen

107.34

+1.19

-1.28%

Oil

$38.94

-$0.54

+3.81%

10-Year

2.772%

-0.085

-3.82%

Bond

127.59375

+1.328125

+1.04%

Dow

7365.67

-1.34%

-6.17%

Nasdaq

1441.23

-0.11%

-6.07%

S&P

770.05

-1.14%

-6.87%

 
 

 

The Metals:

 

Gold and silver remained near unchanged at about $970 and $14 in Asia and then screamed higher in London to as high as $998.92 and $14.56 by about 9AM EST before they retraced to about $990 and $14.40 in later morning New York trade, but they then rallied to new session highs of $1006.07 and $14.607 in the last couple of hours of trade and gold ended with a gain of 2.52% while silver topped that performance with a gain of 3.43%.

 

Gold closed just $4.50 from its record high close of $1003.70 set on March 18th of 2008 while silver remains well short of its 27 year high of $20.64 set on March 5th of 2008.  Gold and silver’s intraday highs set on March 17th of 2008 are $1031.85 and $21.34.

 

Euro gold rose to a new record high at about €778, platinum gained $12.50 to $1081.50, and copper fell over 5 cents to about $1.41.  Platinum’s record high of $2255 was set on March 5th of 2008.

 

Gold and silver equities rose about 3% at the open before they pared their gains slightly midmorning, but they then rose to news highs heading into the afternoon and the miners ended with roughly 4% gains on the day.  The all-time closing highs set on March 14th 2008 are 206.87 for the XAU, 514.89 for the HUI, and 1553.31 for the GDM.  While all three indices have more than doubled from their lows of four months ago, they still remain about 50% from those all-time highs.  For more on the gold stocks, please see Adam Hamilton’s article posted today at http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1235149548.php.

 

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

CPI

Jan

0.3%

0.3%

-0.8%

Core CPI

Jan

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

 

More homeowners say homes depreciated: survey  Reuters

Dodd Says Short-Term Bank Nationalization Might Be Necessary  Bloomberg

Roubini: Nowhere near end of crisis  Reuters

 

All of this week’s other economic reports:

 

Leading Indicators - January

0.4% v. 0.2%

 

Philadelphia Fed - February

-41.3 v. -24.3

 

Initial Claims - 2/14

627K v. 627K

 

PPI - January

0.8% v. -1.9%

 

Core PPI - January

0.4% v. 0.2%

 

Industrial Production - January

-1.8% v. -2.4%

 

Capacity Utilization - January

72.0% v. 73.3%

 

Housing Starts - January

466K v. 560K

 

Building Permits - January

521K v. 547K

 

Import Prices - January

-1.1% v. -5.0%

 

Import Prices ex-oil - January

-0.8% v. -1.1%

 

Export Prices - January

0.5% v. -2.3%

 

Export Prices ex-ag. - January

0.0% v. -1.9%

 

Net Long-Term TIC Flows - December

$34.8B v. -$25.6B

 

New York Manufacturing Index - February

-34.65 v. -22.2

 

Next week’s economic highlights include the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Existing Home Sales on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales on Thursday, and GDP, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment on Friday.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

The U.S. dollar index reversed early gains and ended markedly lower on speculation over US bank nationalization and also on rumors of new European intervention/stimulation that lifted the euro in afternoon trade.

 

Oil fell while treasuries rose on persistent worries about the economy and the sustainability of the entire financial system that also sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P markedly lower at times.  The Dow fell below yesterday’s 6 year lows while the S&P was barely able to hold above its late November 2008 intraday/closing lows of 741.02/752.44 and the Nasdaq remained roughly 100 points above its lows of 1295.48/1316.12.  All three indices rallied back higher in the last two hours of trade to actually end the day with only modest losses after having traded roughly 3% lower earlier in the day, but uncertainty still remains quite high as to what will happen next as bank nationalization rumors work through their cycle of being floated and subsequently denied.

 

Among the big names making news in the market Friday were Bank of America and Citigroup, Lowe’s, J.C. Penney, and Saab.

 

The Commentary:

 

“Gold is pushing its record highs from last year, resistance will be formidable, but whether it does it in the next few weeks or in a few months, gold is clearly headed higher, much higher. $1,200 and higher gold is now a possibility in the short-term. Pullbacks will see continued strong investment demand, both from institutional and retail investors. At the rapid rate global paper currencies are being diluted, the destruction of trust and integrity within the financial and banking system and destabilizing consequences such actions will promote, gold and silver are going to attract record amounts of capital seeking wealth preservation.”- Peter Spina, www.goldforecaster.com

 

“As we saw the gold price attack the $1,000 level for the second time, but with far more force, institutional investment demand continued to drive the gold price, forcing the closure of 'short' positions [selling when the seller doesn't have the gold] on COMEX and stunting both jewelry and Indian demand, where higher prices have at least temporarily sidelined these buyers.

 

The demand for the shares of the gold Exchange Traded Funds is so high that the U.S. based SPDR [gold Exchange Traded Fund] fund has surpassed all records.   If one adds just the Barclays Gold Trust shares to World Gold Council based gold Exchange Traded Funds across the world then the total has surpassed the gold holdings of Switzerland making these holding the 6th largest in the World behind the USA, the I.M.F., Germany, France and Italy.

 

Nothing else can describe the fears about monetary stability better than these facts.

 

A mindset change is taking place regarding gold as its virtues are standing in stark contrast to the disturbing financial scene in most countries.

 

We do not believe these price levels will deter long-term institutional investors.   Expect more of the same in the days ahead.”- Julian D.W. Phillips, www.goldforecaster.com

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold hit the magical number of “$1,000” in today’s trading session in the front month April contract at the Comex and immediately registered newswire flashes across the various services. This is something guaranteed to garner the attention of that section of the public who  are still somehow oblivious about the metal not realizing its role as a safe haven and the ease with which it may be bought or sold. Perhaps they have been too busy lining up waiting for the government handouts that are proliferating faster than the flu virus in winter. Either way, those who have been attempting to hold back the metal, got what they did not want - headlines and interest!

 

Keep in mind that this is only the second time in its history that gold has shot up above the $1,000 level. Generally short-term oriented traders like to book profits when such things occur so it will not be unexpected to see a bit of a pullback from here.

 

I know this does not sound like the words of an inspired market genius but one of two things will happen here. We will get the scenario that I just outlined or the market will shoot sharply higher. If it is the latter, it will be quite telling as it will reveal just how determined, eager or downright terrified people are becoming. Market action of that kind of nature speaks thusly: “get me in at any price – I simply don’t care – I want in”.  Or in the case of trapped shorts: “Get me out at any price – I am terrified of getting wiped out”. In other words, the latter scenario will give us a measure of market intensity. The former will show that there is not yet any panic buying occurring in the gold market even though overall demand is very strong.

 

If the market does set back, I do not expect any subsequent price retracement to be very deep this time around – things have changed since last March 2008 ( a year ago), the last time gold was over $1,000. The price rise this time has been measured, it has been steady, and most importantly, it has not been driven by a rush of hot fund money into the market. The open interest is 60% of what it was the last time the price of gold peaked – while there is a sizeable long position in the Comex gold market, it is well off the levels it reached at that last peak. Also, the reported holdings in the gold ETF, GLD, show that investment money is steadily flowing into this sector. The last time gold was over $1,000 back in March, the reported gold holdings were only 663 tons. As of yesterday, holdings were reported at 1029 tons. Obviously a much larger share of the public is moving into gold. I am hard-pressed to see a reason why all this money would suddenly decide to abandon gold unless of course an economic miracle recovery were to immediately commence. Perhaps the Obama administration will discover a new method of creating money that sees it miraculously fall out of the heavens so deep around us that we do not even have to bend over to pick it up. First time something like this occurred, it was quail. At least you could eat that. Paper does not sound particularly appetizing to me.

 

I should note here that gold priced in British Pound terms and in Euro terms has set brand new all-time highs the last four days in a row. BP gold is closing in on the 700 level and was fixed at 690.353 while Euro-gold is steadily heading towards the €800 level as it was fixed at €782.437 today. Both charts are absolutely stunning to behold. Europe has reached the point where you might say that confidence in paper money has been lost.  Eastern Europe is still a major overhang and fears about a regional default are probably not out of line.

 

Also, we are not yet through the month of February, but gold is on track to put in its highest monthly CLOSE ever. Coincidentally, that occurred back in February 2008 when the front month closed at $975. Next Friday’s close is going to be interesting to say the least. One more thing – gold in inflation adjusted terms is still well off its all time high which on an inflation adjusted basis is over $2,000. The case could me made that even at current levels, gold is not particularly expensive.”- Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com

 

My Dear Friends,

 

Please be advised on the following concerning the Swiss Franc:

 

1. There is an ongoing battle between the US/GB and Switzerland over the full disclosure of the total 19,000 names on the books of UBS wherein tax evasion is said to have been solicited and abetted. In truth, very few of these accounts have been fully revealed and the US/GB wants all 19,000.

 

2. Since hedge funds pry on each other we are getting few very fat international hedge funds. They play the currency market in a big way as it is one of the few markets now able to absorb their interest.

 

As a result of both number one and two much of the media and expert commentary on the Swiss Franc is the use of media for dirty tricks as this is the major tool of these large funds and governments in conflict.

 

I would suggest in this case decision on the future of the Swiss Franc is better made on the 35 year technical price analysis. A short seeking to cover, which generally seems quite correct now amongst the weak versus dollar units, should and is taking place.

 

Negative media and short covering has gone hand in hand in this bear market. Was it not the same in all recent major market failures?

 

Why should currency be any different?

 

Respectfully,”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

 

“April Gold closed up 25.7 at 1002.2. This was 12.7 up from the low and 2.8 off the high.

 

March Silver finished up 0.555 at 14.49, 0.085 off the high and 0.085 up from the low.

 

The gold market traded sharply higher pushing through the psychological $1,000 per oz price level as escalating anxiety regarding the health of the global economy and financial sector put equity markets in a tailspin for most of the session. Panic selling in the equities market pushed April gold above the July high and to the highest price level since March of last year. Ongoing concerns over rising risk to European banks due to their high exposure to eastern European economies added to the safe haven buying in gold. Strong investment buying interest continued to flow to the gold market on rumors that the government may consider nationalizing some banks. A sharp reversal in the dollar during the selling may have provided some additional support. Gold trimmed gains on profit taking after comments by the White House supporting a private US banking system triggered a sharp bounce in equities.

 

The silver market rallied sharply on strong investor safe haven buying interest that took the May contract to the highest price level since last August. The dive in equity prices and the uncertainty surrounding the health of the economy and banking system triggered the safe haven buying in silver. The reversal action in the dollar added to bullish sentiment. It was impressive to see silver retain most of its gains despite a late session recovery in equity market.”- The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 2/20/2009

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

8,458,484

-

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

124,743,230

-

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx)

SPDR® Gold Shares

1,028.98

33,082,801

US$ 32,432m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse )

Gold Bullion Securities

132.12

4,247,645

US$ 4,234m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

12.49

400,508

US$ 400m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

28.63

920,348

US$ 902m

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR added 4.89 tonnes to a new record high holding and the LSE added 0.13 tonnes.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 2/19/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$2,189,768,426

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

2,243,824.921

Shares Outstanding

22,800,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

69.79

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 2/19/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$3,617,484,283

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

253,738,517.300

Shares Outstanding

257,250,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

7,892.15

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 18.4 tonnes were added to the trust to a new record high holding.

 

The Stocks:

 

Barrick’s (ABX) fourth-quarter loss, Buenaventura’s (BVN) increased economic interest in El Brocal, Timberline’s (TLR) receipt of notice from the NYSE, Teck’s sold Hemlo stake to Barrick, Aurizon’s (AZK) renewal in mineral reserves and increase its mineral resource estimate, Anglo American’s (AAUK) job cuts, and Orezone’s (OZN) obtained final court approval for the IAMGOLD (IAG) transaction were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines Friday.

 

WINNERS

1.  Alexco

AXU +23.85% $1.61

2.  Silver Wheaton

SLW +11.53% $7.35

3.  Minefinders

MFN +9.66% $6.13

 

LOSERS

1.  Anglo American

AAUK -15.09% $7.43

2.  Entree

EGI -3.33% $1.16

3.  Ivanhoe

IVN -1.78% $4.42

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today's gold and silver stock news:

Buenaventura Increases Economic Interest in El Brocal to 46% - "Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. ("Buenaventura") (NYSE: BVN; Lima Stock Exchange: BUE.LM), Peru's largest publicly traded precious metals mining company, announced today an agreement with Teck Cominco Metals Limited ("Teck") to purchase the 19.8% interest in Inversiones Colquijirca, the holding company that owns a 51.06% stake in Sociedad Minera El Brocal." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Explor Resources Inc.: Private Placement - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Queenston Announces $18 Million Financing - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Pacific Gold Corp. Announces Stock Dividend - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Hana Mining Reports Exploration and Corporate Update at Ghanzi Copper-Silver Project in Botswana - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Barrick takes loss on writedown but output strong - "A $773-million charge to write down assets pulled Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) to a fourth-quarter loss, the gold miner said on Friday, but its core earnings came in around estimates on strong copper and gold output.

Stripping out the writedowns, which covered three mines in Tanzania and Australia as well as last year's acquisition of Cadence Energy, Barrick, the world's top gold miner, earned 32 cents a share. This compared with analysts' forecasts of 30 cents a share, as polled by Reuters Estimates." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Timberline Announces Receipt of Notice From the NYSE Alternext US LLC Regarding Minimum Listing Requirements - "The Exchange based their analysis on Timberline's September 30, 2008 financial statements which report stockholders' equity of $3.55 million. As of Timberline's interim financial statements for the three months ended December 31, 2008, Timberline's stockholders' equity had already increased to $4.62 million and Timberline's management believes that it will continue to make significant progress in the rest of the fiscal year towards meeting the requisite standards to ensure its continued listing on the Exchange. Timberline intends to submit a plan to the Exchange by March 13, 2009 outlining the steps the Company expects to take in order to bring stockholders' equity into compliance with the continued listing standards of the Exchange." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Affinity Gold Corp. Enters Into Letter of Intent With Peruvian Company to Acquire Mining Concession Rights - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Tiomin Invests in Kivu Gold Corp. - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Orezone Obtains Final Court Approval for IAMGOLD Transaction - "IAMGOLD Corporation (Toronto:IMG.TO - News)(NYSE:IAG - News)(BOTSWANA: IAMGOLD) and Orezone Resources Inc. (Toronto:OZN.TO - News)(AMEX:OZN - News) ("Orezone") jointly announced today that the Ontario Superior Court of Justice has issued a final order approving the terms of the arrangement with IAMGOLD." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


NWT Uranium announces grant of options - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Inmet Mining presentation at BMO Capital Markets 2009 Global Metals and Mining Conference - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Tombstone Exploration Receives Layne Christensen Proposal for 2009 Drill Program - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Blue Note Subsidiary Obtains Creditor Protection - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Symbol Change: CGFIA.OB, Minority Shareholders RULE! Colorado Goldfields Inc. Issues B Shares and B Warrants Exclusively to Beneficial Owners - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Barrick Gold posts loss after writedowns - "Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) reported a fourth-quarter loss on Friday as it took a non-cash charge of $773 million, mostly related to goodwill writedowns at four assets.

The world's top gold miner lost $468 million, or 53 cents a share, compared with a profit of $537 million, or 61 cents a share, a year earlier." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Clifford M. James acquires beneficial ownership of additional common shares of TVI Pacific Inc. - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Cadillac Closes $2.3 Million Financing - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


JNR Announces Drilling Program Underway at Way Lake Uranium Project - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


TVI Pacific announces issuance of common shares to discharge certain pre-existing obligations - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Teck Cominco sells Hemlo stake to Barrick - "Teck Cominco (TCKb.TO) has agreed to sell its 50 percent stake in the Hemlo gold operations to joint venture partner Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) as part of Teck's plan to raise cash and pay down debt, the companies said on Friday." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Kinbauri Announces Private Placement - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Minority Shareholders RULE! Colorado Goldfields Inc. Issues B Shares and B Warrants Exclusively to Beneficial Owners - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


AuEx Ventures, Inc.: Klondike North Drill Results - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Mountain Capital Acquires the Inco Lithium Property - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Canasia Industries Corporation: Rodren Drilling Ltd. to Drill the Reed Lake Prospect - More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Aurizon reports mineral reserve renewal and mineral resource update for Casa Berardi mine - "Aurizon Mines Ltd. (TSX: ARZ; NYSE Alternext: AZK) is pleased to report a renewal in mineral reserves and an increase in the mineral resource estimate for its Casa Berardi mine, located in north western Quebec, Canada." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Barrick Gold: Cash Flow Rises to a Record $2.2 Billion in 2008 - "Barrick reported record operating cash flow of $2.21 billion for 2008, a 27% increase over $1.73 billion in the prior year. Net income was $0.79 billion ($0.90 per share) compared to $1.12 billion ($1.29 per share) in the prior year. Adjusted net income rose 60% to $1.66 billion ($1.90 per share)(1) compared to $1.04 billion ($1.19 per share) in the prior year period." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Anglo American cuts 19,000 jobs as profits fall - "Mining company Anglo American PLC said Friday it will cut 19,000 jobs this year and suspend dividend payments after reporting a 29 percent drop in 2008 profits. The company said it hoped to cut the jobs -- 10 percent of its managed work force -- through layoffs, natural attrition and scaling back contractor arrangements." More
- February 20, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

 

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© Gold Seeker 2009

Note: This article may be reproduced provided the article, in full, is used and mention to Gold-Seeker.com is given.

 

 

Disclosure: The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions.  The author of this report is not a registered financial advisor.  Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Gold-Seeker.com has taken precautions to ensure accuracy of information provided. Information collected and presented are from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond Gold-Seeker.com’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate.  The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change.  Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities & therefore information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein.  Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.

 


-- Posted Friday, 20 February 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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