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By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com


-- Posted Wednesday, 4 March 2009 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | | Source: GoldSeek.com

 

Close

Gain/Loss

Gold

$906.85

-$7.20

Silver

$12.85

+$0.14

XAU

113.48

+0.02%

HUI

272.12

-0.94%

GDM

863.35

-0.80%

JSE Gold

2677.92

+107.77

USD

88.56

-0.38

Euro

126.36

+0.72

Yen

100.90

-0.87

Oil

$45.38

+$3.73

10-Year

3.011%

+0.073

T-Bond

125.0625

-0.703125

Dow

6875.84

+2.23%

Nasdaq

1353.74

+2.48%

S&P

712.87

+2.38%

 
 

 

The Metals:

 

Gold fell $8.25 to $905.80 in early London trade before it rose as much as $8.70 to $922.75 in early New York trade, but it then fell back off into the close and ended near its new session low of $904.80 with a loss of 0.79%.  Silver dropped $0.05 to $12.66 in Asia before it rose to see a gain of 2.7% or $0.34 at $13.15 at about 9AM EST in New York, but it also fell back off into the close and ended with a gain of just 1.1%.

 

Euro gold fell to about €719, platinum gained $15 to $1041, and copper gained roughly 9 cents more to about $1.69.

 

Gold and silver equities rose roughly 3% at the open before they fell back off to see about 2% losses by a little after 2PM EST, but they then rallied back higher in the last two hours of trade and ended mixed and near unchanged.

 

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

ADP Employment

Feb

-697K

-630K

-522K

ISM Services

Feb

41.6

41.0

42.9

 

“The Obama administration kicked off a new program Wednesday that's designed to help up to 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments.”

 

The fed’s Beige Book showed that the fed is not expecting an upturn in the economy until late 2009 or early 2010.

 

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings fourth quarter Productivity expected at 1.1%, Unit Labor Costs expected at 3.8%, and Initial Jobless Claims for 2/28 expected at 650,000.  At 10AM is the Factory Orders report for January expected at -3.5%.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil prices rose 9% as inventories fell and hopes for increasing demand from China increased after rumors surfaced about a second stimulus package from them soon.  Oil inventories fell 700,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose 200,000 barrels, distillates rose 1,700,000 barrels, and refinery utilization rose 1.7% to 83.1%.

 

The U.S. dollar index fell as the euro rose ahead of tomorrow’s ECB and BOE meetings that are expected to see cuts of 50 basis points each.  All eyes and ears will be on Trichet’s speech following the expected cuts as it may indicate a possible change in policy heading forward.

 

Treasuries fell as the Dow and S&P rebounded from yesterday’s 12-year closing lows “on word of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package and an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.”

 

Among the big names making news in the market today were GE, Costco, BJ’s, Toll Brothers, Liz Claiborne, Exxon, and SunTrust.

 

The Commentary:

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.

 

Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:

 

$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

 

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

 

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. Click here to view the Forbes article…

 

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

 

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

 

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

 

I did not wish to yell "fire in the theatre."

 

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

 

Dear CIGAs,

 

General long liquidation and some fresh short selling continues to occur in the paper gold market at the Comex as short term oriented traders express disappointment in the lack of a reported increase in holdings in the gold ETF, GLD. Gold is still probing for a low from which to base. See the chart for some comments on the various technical levels where that might be found.

 

Gold moved inversely to the equity markets today as stock prices moved higher in a bit of a relief rally after being down for 5 straight days in a row. Chatter was that China was on the verge of an economic recovery and what is therefore good for China is good for the entire global economy. The surge in copper prices today after yesterday’s strong move higher also fed into that theory. What those espousing the “copper theory” do not understand apparently is arbitrage. Copper prices in Shanghai and London were and are trading at two different price levels and arbitragers are taking advantage of that price discrepancy. That has copper flowing to China and drawing down supplies in London which is being interpreted as signs that China is going to recover first. My view is that once arbitrage corrects the price discrepancy and the Chinese are finished restocking at bargain prices, the drawdown in LME copper stocks will come to an abrupt halt. China is certainly planning on using some of that copper with its own economic stimulus plan but one has to wonder if that sort of thing is going to produce lasting economic gains seeing that part of the problems in China are excessive production and supply capacity. I guess we will find out…- Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com

 

“April Gold closed down 6.9 at 906.7. This was 1.2 up from the low and 16.3 off the high.

 

March Silver finished up 0.205 at 12.9, equal to the high and equal to the low.

 

The gold market clearly was undermined by several developments that seemed to deflate the flight to quality angle in the marketplace. Clearly the Chinese stimulus news was a major catalyst behind an improvement in macro economic sentiment and that in conjunction with what appeared to be a key reversal in the Dollar seemed to turn up the long liquidation pressure on the gold market. It is also possible that additional US government offerings served to tamp down fears that the US wasn't in control of its future, as the idea that things were about to get out of control was certainly part of the reason gold prices recently managed to rise above $1,000. While anxiety might not stay tamped down, the gold market on Wednesday certainly seemed to be fearful of that happening in the near term.

 

The silver market clearly diverged with the gold market and that seemed to be the result of silver tracking its physical commodity factors, while the gold market was seeing financially orientated long liquidation pressure. With the copper market adding almost 10 cents per pound today and up 20 cents from this week's lows, it was clear that interest in industrial metals was serving to lift the fortunes of silver. Certainly the Chinese stimulus package was a large source of support for silver but in retrospect the strength in the equity market had to give some silver buyers an incentive.”- The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

GATA Posts:

 

 

Liberty Dollar founder on Fox News today

TheStreet.com notes complaints of manipulation of silver

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 3/04/2009

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

8,655,661

-60,200

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

125,113,047

+993,769

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchage (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx)

SPDR® Gold Shares

1,029.29

33,092,632

US$ 30,228m

London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse )

Gold Bullion Securities

129.99

4,179,259

US$ 3,792m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

12.49

400,456

US$ 364m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

28.62

920,227

US$ 840m

NASDAQ Dubai

Dubai Gold Securities

0.16

5,000

US$ 5m

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 2.85 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$1,989,312,763

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

2,179,187.377

Shares Outstanding

22,150,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

67.78

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 0.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 3/3/2009

 

Total Net Assets

$3,253,553,515

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

256,600,428.100

Shares Outstanding

260,250,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

7,981.17

 Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 3.02 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

The Miners:

 

ITH’s (THM) closed financing, Northgate’s (NXG) fourth quarter earnings, Great Basin’s (GBG) priced offering, Agnico Eagle’s (AEM) exploration update, New Gold’s (NGD) and Western Goldfields’ (WGW) business combination, MAG’s (MVG) corrected estimation error in its resource estimate, and Ecuador’s plans to allow miners to restart operations were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

 

WINNERS

1.  Northern Dynasty

NAK +16.30% $4.78

2.  Freeport

FCX +13.38% $32.21

3.  Anglo American

AAUK +10.82% $7.27

 

LOSERS

1.  New Gold

NGD-13.97% $1.54

2.  MAG

MVG -7.78% $4.15

3.  Harmony

HMY-3.33% $11.04

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today's gold and silver stock news:

Quri Resources Launches a University Assistance Program - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Zoloto Resources announces closing of non-brokered private placement - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. Closes $10,500,000 Bought Deal Equity Financing - "International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. ("ITH" or "the Company") (CDNX:ITH.V - News)(AMEX:THM - News)(Frankfurt:IW9.F - News) is pleased to announce that, on March 4, 2009, it closed its previously announced private placement through a syndicate of underwriters ("Underwriters") and sold an aggregate of 4,200,000 common shares of the Company ("Shares") at a price of $2.50 per Share for gross proceeds of $10,500,000 on a bought deal basis in Canada and a concurrent private placement in the United States to accredited investors (the "Offering")." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Consolidated Thompson Comments on Recent Stock Activity - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Uranium Hunter Corporation, Corporate Updaate - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Pacific Gold Corp. - Yorkville Debt Agreement - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Lake Victoria Mining Company Reports Drill Progress at Geita Gold Project, Northern Tanzania - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Logan Resources updates resource estimate for Brynnor Iron Project, Vancouver Island, based on results of 2008 drill program - More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Ecuador to allow big miners to restart ops in March - "Ecuador will allow Kinross (K.TO) and Corriente (CTQ.TO) to restart exploration later in March after nearly one year of a freeze in mining operations, Oil and Mines Minister Derlis Palacios told Reuters on Wednesday.

Iamgold (IMG.TO) and International Minerals Corp will be allowed in about 45 days after governmental studies on their operations located in protected areas, Palacios said." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Ecuador to allow big miners to restart ops in March - "Ecuador will allow Kinross (K.TO) and Corriente (CTQ.TO) to restart exploration later in March after nearly one year of a freeze in mining operations, Oil and Mines Minister Derlis Palacios told Reuters on Wednesday.

Iamgold (IMG.TO) and International Minerals Corp will be allowed in about 45 days after governmental studies on their operations located in protected areas, Palacios said." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Northgate Minerals Posts Fourth Quarter Net Earnings of $0.07 per Share - "Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX: NGX; NYSE ALTERNEXT/AMEX: NXG) today reported net earnings of $18,668,000 or $0.07 per diluted common share and cash flow from operations of $5,858,000 or $0.02 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter of 2008. For the full year, net earnings were $10,742,000 or $0.04 per diluted common share and cash flow from operations was $64,987,000 or $0.25 per diluted common share. Northgate also achieved record gold production in 2008 of 354,800 ounces at a net cash cost of $447 per ounce of gold." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


MAG Silver Reports Restated Valdecanas Mineral Resource to Correct Estimation Error - "MAG Silver Corp. (Toronto:MAG.TO - News)(AMEX:MVG - News) ("MAG") announced today that it has been advised by Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. ("Scott Wilson RPA") that an error was discovered in the resource estimate that Scott Wilson RPA prepared for the Valdecanas Vein at the Juanicipio project in Zacatecas State, Mexico (the "2009 Independent Resource Estimate")." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Great Basin Gold Ltd. Announces Pricing of C$130 Million Equity Offering - "Great Basin Gold Ltd. (the "Company") (TSX: GBG; NYSE Alternext: GBG; JSE: GBG) announces that it has priced an offering of 100,000,000 units at a price of C$1.30 per unit resulting in gross proceeds of C$130,000,000. Each unit is comprised of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each full warrant will entitle the holder to purchase a common share of the Company at a price of C$1.60 at any time before 5:00 p.m. (Vancouver time) on October 15, 2010." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


New Gold Inc. and Western Goldfields Inc. Announce Business Combination Building a Leading Intermediate Gold Producer - "New Gold Inc. ("New Gold") (TSX and NYSE Alternext - NGD) and Western Goldfields Inc. ("Western Goldfields") (TSX - WGI and NYSE Alternext - WGW) today announce that they have entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which New Gold will acquire by way of a plan of arrangement all of the outstanding common shares of Western Goldfields in exchange for one New Gold common share and CDN$0.0001 in cash for each common share of Western Goldfields (the "Transaction"). Upon completion of the Transaction, existing New Gold and Western Goldfields shareholders will own approximately 58% and 42% of the combined company, respectively." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


Agnico-Eagle provides exploration update on 2008 activities - "Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited ("Agnico-Eagle" or the "Company") is pleased to provide an update on its 2008 exploration program. During 2008, the Company spent approximately $72 million on exploration, including $38 million of exploration capitalized at its development projects." More
- March 04, 2009 | Item | E-mail


 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

 

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-- Posted Wednesday, 4 March 2009 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com




 



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