-- Posted Friday, 30 June 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD AUGUST FUTURE -- $600.40	COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- $1076.50
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $589.10 -- $623.40	SILVER -- $1041.0 - $1222.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER SEPTEMBER -- $318.60 - $362.30	NYMEX CRUDE OIL AUGUST  - $71.60 - $75.20
MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA (MCX)
GOLD AUGUST FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER AUGUST FUTURE/KG
Rs.8,920- Rs.9,360	Rs.16,700 - Rs.18,200
COPPER AUGUST FUTURE	CRUDE OIL JULY FUTURE
Rs.316.60 - Rs.342.90	Rs.3,280 - Rs.3,550
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold and silver are higher after the Fed meeting and should once again start the bull run to test the may highs over the coming week. The fed they said that any further policy moves would be dependent upon the outlook for both inflation and economic growth. Its also acknowledged that higher rates were affecting growth. The US dollar slumped after the announcement. Crude oil prices are nearing $75.00 a barrel ahead of the US Independence Day vacations.   Where are we headed? All the incoming economic numbers will be scrutinized by the markets with signs of further slowdown in US economy. Inflation will rise despite any slowdown in US retail demand. The European central bank is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of percentage in August. It’s just the interest rates differential that is supporting the US dollar and if it narrows the slump in the US dollar will continue. Euro should target 1.30-1.32 is the July to September quarter. Crude oil prices will float over $70.00 and target $84.00 as the US hurricane season has begun. Iranian and other geopolitical risk are also not over which will support crude oil prices.   Gold and silver will try to near and break the May’s high of $730.00 and $1550 in July to September quarter. The bullish factors are a weaker US dollar, higher crude oil prices, higher physical demand as traders now start to build up their inventory, geopolitical risk. Shrinkage in global liquidity has now factored in by the markets so I do not consider it as a bearish factor. Only a sustained US dollar gain and interest rates hikes by the bank of Japan and Chinese central bank scan result in losses in gold and silver else June’s low in gold and silver could well be bottom for the rest of 2006.   It’s a long weekend and traders will rather go long than short. Event risk is over and the movement will be technical. Technical factors are portraying a bullish divergence.
GOLD
Gold targets $638.40 and $676.80 over the coming weeks. On the lower side $585.60 is well supported and as long as $585.60 holds on closing basis the downside is limited. A consolidated fall below $585360 will result in $579.20.
SILVER
Silver targets $1162 and $1246 over the coming weeks. On the lower side $1041 is the initial support with $1008 and $983 as the key short term support levels.
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prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
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errors in, or omissions of Information.
Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Web Site:www.insigniaindia.com

-- Posted Friday, 30 June 2006 | Digg This Article

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