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-- Posted Wednesday, 15 November 2006 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE -- $624.00	COMEX SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE -- $1284.50
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD -- $617.00 -- $631.10	SILVER -- $1256 - $1310.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER DECEMBER -- $290.00 - $315.00	NYMEX CRUDE OIL  NOVEMBER  - $57.00 - $61.72
NATIONAL COMMODITIES AND DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE (NCDEX)
GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE/10 GRAMS	SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE/KG
Rs.9110- Rs.9,300	Rs.19050- Rs.19,700
STEEL DECEMBER FUTURE	CRUDE OIL DECEMBER FUTURE
Rs.18250.00 - Rs.18800.00	Rs.2,710 - Rs.2800
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Spot gold has been unable to break and hold $630 and inability to do so this week will result in a fall to $611 and $605. US dollar has not weakened despite producer prices taking their sharpest tumble in more than 13 years during October because of a continuing decline in energy costs and falling new car and truck prices and disappointing retail sales. It’s the US dollar and crude oil prices which are driving gold and silver. Euro is having a tough time to edge past 1.30. Euro has a key support at 1.2728 and a fall below 1.2728 will negatively affect gold.   The recent consolidation in gold and silver reflects the nervousness among the traders which has prevented more investment in them. It’s the speculators and short term traders which drive the markets up and once there is a break out of the key technical resistances long term investors jump in. This is not happening now. Probably spot gold needs to break and hold $636 to restart the first quarter bull run. Silver will be unfazed by the movement in currency market as well as crude oil prices. It is a very volatile commodity and is a sleeping dragon as it traders in $1240- $1325 range. A break out is in the offing soon.   China's retail sales surged 14.3 percent from the previous year to 699.8 billion yuan in October. The surge in retail sales is clearly suggests that the Chinese economy is gradually shifting away from being export dependent economy to an economy driven by domestic demand. If the Chinese economy’s dependence on US exports is reduced the US dollar will slide and gold and silver will jump. Annual growth in Chinese industrial output fell sharply in October to a 22-month low of 14.7 percent from 16.1 percent in September, undershooting even the most pessimistic forecasts. The slowdown is evidence that a raft of monetary and administrative curbs designed to cool investment and credit growth in the world's fourth-largest economy is taking its toll on the nation's factories. Copper and other base metals including zinc will trade with a softer bias on Chinese slowdown.     It’s a just a consolidation phase for gold, silver as well as crude oil before the next leg higher. As long as spot gold holds $611.60 on closing basis there is every possibility of $650 over the coming weeks. Crude oil’s failure to break $61.90 could result in a fall to $57 and $55.45.
GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Gold has an initial support at $621 and $614 while resistance is at $630.60, $635.10 and $642.80.
SILVER -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1335 for further gains to $1430. On the lower side $1256 and $1232 are the support levels.
Happy Profitable Trading
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-- Posted Wednesday, 15 November 2006 | Digg This Article

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