NATIONAL COMMODITIES AND DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE (NCDEX)
GOLD DECEMBER FUTURE/10 GRAMS
SILVER DECEMBER FUTURE/KG
Rs.9260- Rs.9,415
Rs.19,750- Rs.20,400
STEEL DECEMBER FUTURE
CRUDE OIL DECEMBER FUTURE
Rs.18600.00 - Rs.19000.00
Rs.2,700 - Rs.2760
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Silver dazzles of higher investment demand while gold is firm. A weaker US dollar and higher crude oil prices are old market moving news. However it was Fed chairman Bernanke’s downbeat outlook on the housing market that sent the dollar tumbling. Despite gloomy economic outlook for the US economic, US equity markets are firm courtesy metals and energy companies. High stock markets provided the needed liquidity for gold, silver and other commodities to rise. A part of the commodity rally is due to excess global liquidity apart from a global readjustment of the US dollar. As and when liquidity falls gold and silver will correct while maintaining the bullish trend.
Euro‘s rise has lead to street talk of 1.40 to 1.45 against the US dollar over the coming months. Currency speculators are expecting a repeat of 2004. It’s too early to comment on euro future price target unless 1.36 is breached. If at all euro nears 1.40 gold could test $750 and silver over $1650 over the coming months. Interest rate differentials will continue to be negative for the US dollar as other nations including European central bank are expected to raise interest rates for one more time. There will be verbal intervention to stem euro gains but we do not expect any direct intervention at higher levels.
It will once again be a momentum market just as gold fell sharply after London fixing yesterday. These temporary wild moves will continue for the rest of the week. The rollover of december future will only add to the volatility. The market movement reflects the nervousness of traders and they are on the edge.
GOLD -- FEBRUARY FUTURE
Gold needs to break $667.20 for further gains. On the lower side $642.30 and $639.40 are the initial supports with $624.10 as the key weekly support.
SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1425 for $1480 and $1536. Support at $1355 and key weekly support at $1305.
Happy Profitable Trading
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