The March volatility in commodity markets should reduce as we near towards the close. March is the financial year close for many countries across the globe including India and Japan. Investment companies in these countries resort to window dressing in March to shape their balance sheets the way they would like their yearly books of accounts to close. Tax implications further add to the volatility in commodity markets. In India you will find a large number of individuals investing in Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIP) to save tax. A part of the proceeds invested in ULIP’s is invested in equity markets which supports equity indices. Japanese repatriate their funds to their home country which supports yen, due to certain tax implications.Fiscal year close in December and March add to greater trading range. These fluctuations are very good for day traders and jobbers, but prevents low risk traders from entering the markets. Gold and silver are experiencing the nervousness of the traders as there is profit booking at higher levels. Once March is over investor appetite for riskier assets like commodities will increase and gold and gold and silver should rise further depending on technical levels.
Stable interest rate environment and low volatility in foreign exchange markets will only support carry trader. Gold and silver will continue to benefit from higher investment demand on the back of Exchange traded Funds, lack higher return generating investments and continued negative sentiments for the US dollar. For the long term low risk investor, gold will remain an excellent investment on any major decline. For the high risk taker silver is the best bet in commodities but could suffer from the over hype if it unable to break 2006’s highs soon.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold needs breaks $660 for further gains to $672 and $677. On the lower side $643.80 and $635.10 are the key intra day support levels.
SILVER -- MAYFUTURE
Silver targets $1412 if it is able to break $1310. On the lower side $1255 and 1224 are the key intra day support levels.
Happy Profitable Trading
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