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-- Posted Monday, 16 April 2007 | Digg This Article

GOLD	SILVER
COMEX GOLD JUNE FUTURE -- $690.80	COMEX SILVER MAY FUTURE -- $1411.00
EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD JUNE -- $687.70 -- $700.00	SILVER  MAY -- $1390.0 - $1440.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER MAY  -- $350.00.00 - $366.00	NYMEX CRUDE OIL  MAY    - $62.80 - $66.00
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The G 7 meeting failed to criticize the Japan over weakness of the yen, suggesting that the yen will weaken further this week and for the rest of April.  A stronger currency has its positive as well as its negatives for any country in an interest rate sensitive market.  A stronger currency reduces imported inflation, specially energy price inflation which is a measure of combat inflation and also delays raising interest rates.  However a stronger currency hurts exports. Global markets are fiercely competitive.  Cheap technology and reducing logistic time and costs has made it easier to buy the same goods and services from any part globe. Any sustained gains in any currency adversely  affects the exports as well as growth of that nation. The big question is how long Eurozone, UK and other nations including India let their currency appreciate and at what cost. Beyond a certain level, there will be all sort of noises on currency gains by central bankers affected.  If there is a deadlock between nations over the fair value of the currency, the end result could be a move towards protectionism.  The end result gold and silver will continue to benefit as a result of the same. However there will be technical barriers and even greater volatility in gold and silver.    Most of the traders believe that gold and silver are going to repeat their performance of 1980. However the key difference between 1980 and 2007 is technology. In 1980 there was no internet and communication cost was expensive. In 2007 there is internet and cost of communication is cheap.  Every traders as well as investor has timely information to make informed decisions which was not there in 1980. In 1980 there was no exchange traded funds and interest rates were high. In 2007 there is information overload which has resulted in over analysis and over leverage and greater volatility in financial instruments and one the prime reasons for losses. Gold, silver and commodities are getting their long due investment status class in 2007 and are poised for further gains.  But it’s better to use a combination of bull spreads and bears spreads to hedge their risk.    Silver in our view has disappointed so far in 2007. But we believe should catch up and beat the rest of commodities as investor confidence rises . Silver has been the case of all hype few gain.  Silver along with molybdenum are the metal of the future due to its varied industrial use and the future potential.  Silver sometimes gets caught between gold, base metals and foreign exchange  markets which prevents retail investor from direct trading in future market.  As investors learn to differentiate between silver and rest of the investment avenues they will increase their long term investments in silver.  Silver, the poor man’s gold of history will be the neighbours envy owners pride in the 21st Century.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Gold targets $700 and $730 as long as $677.30 holds on closing basis. A consolidated fall below $677.30 will result in $663.20 and $659.00..
SILVER -- MAY  FUTURE
Silver targets $1500, $1537 as long as $1372 holds on closing basis.
Happy Profitable Trading
Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability
for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
party  in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies,
errors in, or omissions of Information.
Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Web Site:www.insigniaindia.com

-- Posted Monday, 16 April 2007 | Digg This Article

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