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-- Posted Thursday, 6 September 2007 | Digg This Article

EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
GOLD DECEMBER   -- $683.70 -- $704.00				SILVER  DEC   -- $1222.0 - $1274.00
COPPER AND CRUDE OIL -- EXPECTED TRADING RANGE
COPPER DEC   -- $322.40.00 - $338.70				NYMEX CRUDE OIL   - $73.20 - $77.60
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GOLD DECEMBER TECHNICAL LEVELS
SUPPORT				RESISTANCE
S1	S2	S3	S4	R1	R2	R3	R4
$673.70	$678.40	$683.00	$686.80	$695.20	$698.00	$704.90	$709.10
COPPER DECEMBER  TECHNICAL LEVELS
SUPPORT				RESISTANCE
S1	S2	S3	S4	R1	R2	R3	R4
$304.50	$311.70	$322.30	$327.80	$338.30	$343.30	$346.30	$350.70
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Yesterday, I had written that base metal will take the maximum hit as and when global growth slows. OECD has reduced growth forecast for 2007. Base metals rose in London after a reduction in LME inventory only to plunge thereafter.  Rise in short term interest rates will prevent base metals from a major rise as hedge funds reduce investment. Base metals are fundamentally bullish but falling. Copper has fallen but range trading and looking for fresh direction. Copper is one of the safest commodities in base metals to trade. Zinc, Lead and Nickel fell. Lead has been the best performer so far in 2007. Lead has fallen general fall in base metals. There is no substitute for lead unlike nickel which will result in value based buying at lower levels. Lead and Zinc are both a key metal in  the automobile sector. Asian demand for automobiles should remain firm for the rest of 2007 which will result in firm demand.
Gold and silver benefiting from greater risk aversion. There is uncertainty on global stocks markets and on global economy. A weaker US economy will result in a weaker US dollar. But unlike July 2007, the pace of fall of the greenback will be more orderly in September. Gold and silver should remain firm till uncertainty on interest rates are over.
We have European Central Bank and the Bank of England meeting. They both are expected to maintain interest rates. However one should looks for any signs of a future interest rate cut. In our view, if there are signs of sustained slowdown of Eurozone economy, the ECB may cut interest rates. At the moment, the probability is zero for a future interest cut by the ECB. But we need to keep all options open.
MCX -- ZINC SEPTEMBER FUTURE (PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEE'S)
SUPPORT				RESISTANCE
S1	S2	S3	S4	R1	R2	R3	R4
100.00	111.70	114.50	117.80	120.30	122.30	124.80	127.60
MCX -- ZINC SEPTEMBER FUTURE (PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEE'S)
Under the worst case, we do see MCX september falling below INR 111.70. A consolidated fall below INR 111.70 will trigger investment stop losses. There are more long positions in Zinc than short positions. Zinc needs to break and hold 122-123 for gains to 127.
GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Gold targets $704-$709 as long as $683 holds. $683 is the lower support base and a consolidated fall below $683.0 will result in $675.
COPPER -- DECEMBER
Copper and needs to break $338.30 to be in bullish zone. A consolidated fall below $327 will result in $322 and $311.
Happy Profitable Trading
Disclaimer : Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, precious metals, base metals, or equity indices reflect the views
of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability
for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
party  in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies,
errors in, or omissions of Information.

-- Posted Thursday, 6 September 2007 | Digg This Article

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