-- Posted Monday, 11 January 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
The US December non farm payrolls has come as a shot in the arm for US dollar bears and its now up to them to make the most out of it. I do not except any major liquidity reduction measures by the Fed before May. Stable interest rates along with extra liquidity will promote the carry trade and will be positive for all commodities (subject to break of key technical resistances). Higher growth rates in emerging markets will prevent base metals from a major slide in the short term unless their global growth slows.
CFTC to push energy position limits at Jan 14 meet
The CFTC will meet on Jan. 14 to consider whether to issue the proposed rule to limit holdings by big energy traders, the cornerstone of its effort to curb volatility after prices of oil and other commodities soared to record highs in 2008. Details of the proposal will not be released before the meeting, a CFTC spokesman said. The proposed rule, which would then be open to public comment, would apply to trading on regulated futures exchanges, derivatives transaction facilities and on electronic trading floors, the CFTC said. The commission will also decide which players to exempt from the proposed limits, such as airlines, trucking companies and other companies that take delivery of the fuel itself and use futures contracts to hedge against price swings.
Our view: Crude oil can fall in the short term if trading limits come up. One should use the (dips) if any to invest in crude oil. As long as global liquidity remains high and global growth remains positive crude oil will maintain its long term bullishness. Unless the governments of major crude oil trading exchanges come up with a unanimous proposal to curb excess speculation in crude oil any one side move by CFTC will result in trading volumes getting shifted to other exchanges in different countries. Regulatory measures will only reduce the pace of the rise of crude oil and not the rise as long as long term fundamentals are positive.
Technically gold and silver are bullish while base metals and energies are reaching short term overbought conditions.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER MARCH
Bullish over $1823.50 with $1894.50 and $1940 as price target.
Bearish below $1797 with $1758 and $1717 as price target.
Neutral Zone between $1797-$1823
Silver targets $1980 in short term as long as it trades over $1797.
MCX SILVER MARCH
MCX Silver march targets Rs.31429 in short term as long as it trades over 27417.
DISCLOSURE: NO POSITIONS
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-- Posted Monday, 11 January 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
