-- Posted Friday, 12 February 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
COMMODITIES EVENING UPDATE
I would not have made this report as I am a staunch devotee of Lord Shiva and today is his birthday, but the trend reversal and events in China and Europe has compelled me to prepare this report. Today’s report is dedicated to my guru “Lord Shiva”.
China Raises Bank Reserve Ratio to Cool Fastest-Growing Economy
China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the fastest-growing major economy after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged.
The reserve requirement will increase 50 basis points effective Feb. 25, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site today. The current level is 16 percent for big banks and 14 percent for smaller ones.
Effect on Commodity markets: Commodities can fall further as well all know that China is the biggest consumer of base metals and energies. Any reduction in Chinese growth will result in lower demand for base metals. However any fall in base metals will be short lived (2-3 weeks maximum) in my view.
Europe’s Recovery Almost Stalls as Germany Stagnates
Europe’s recovery almost stalled in the fourth quarter as waning spending and investment in Germany unexpectedly brought growth in the region’s largest economy to a halt.
Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro region rose 0.1 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.4 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The recession in Greece deepened, with GDP falling 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter after a 0.5 percent slump in the previous three months.
Effect on Commodity markets: This has been more or less discounted in by the markets after the Greece budget deficit fiasco. In my view euro’s direct effect on commodity markets will be reduced in the future unless eurozone growth stabilizes.
Intra Day technical Picture
Technically gold and silver are in a neutral to bullish zone but gains will be dependent on the ability to hold on to the current prices. Base metals are in a slightly bearish zone but will fall if and only if US stock markets fall. US weekly crude oil inventory will be the key. Further there will be position squaring and rebuilding before the US holiday on Monday.
TECNICAL VIEW
GOLD APRIL
Bullish over 16240 with 16460 and 1616 as target.
Bearish below 16200 with 16140 and 15960 as price target
Neutral zone: 16200-16240
Support: 16238-16164-16122
Resistance: 16425-16547-16653-16750
Intra day Trading Strategy: Buy only on a consolidated break of 16420 or sell below 16280 for 16240 and 16210
SILVER MARCH
Bullish over 24225 with 24650-24989 as price target
Bearish below 23900 with 23600 and 23200 as price target
Neutral Zone between 23900-24225
Support: 23880-23675
Resistance: 25525-25765-24972-25308
Silver will break free from 24000-24700 range and form a new range. At lower prices fresh wave of selling will be there only on a consolidated fall below 23800 or failure to break 24800-24900 zone.
Trading Strategy: Sell only on a consolidated fall below 23900 or buy over 24500 for 24600 and 24750
COPPER FEBRUARY
Bullish over 308 with 323 and 329 as price target
Bearish below 306 with 303 and 299 as price target
Neutral zone between 306-308
Copper needs to break and trade over 323 or fall below 308 for direction. As long as copper does not fall below 308 it will continue to trade in 308-323 zone
Support: 297.60-301.10-303.90-305.80-308.10
Resistance: 314.60-318.80-323.20-331
Intra day Trading Strategy: Sell only on a consolidated fall below 308
CRUDE OIL (MARCH)
Bullish over 3360 with 3510-3580 as price target
Bearish below 3310 with 3280-3180 as price target
Neutral Zone between 3310-3360
Trading Strategy: Buy around 3200-32258 stop loss below 3170 or Sell around 3550-3580 stop loss over 3630
ZINC FEBRUARY
Bullish over 97.25 with 101 and 103 as price target
Bearish below 96.25 with 95.25 and 94.25 as price target
Neutral Zone between 96.25-97.25
Support: 93.0-91.74
Resistance: 100.80-102.30
Intra day Trading Strategy: Sell only on a consolidated fall below 97.
LEAD FEBRUARY
Bullish over 94.0 with 99 and 102.20 as price target
Bearish below 93.0 with 91 and 88 as price target
Neutral Zone between: 93.0-94.0
Support: 94.20-92.30-91.70-89.60-86
Resistance: 99.10-102.30
Trading Strategy: Sell around 101 stop loss over 102.50 or sell on a consolidated fall below 96
NICKEL FEBRUARY
Bullish over 847 with 867 and 880 as target
Bearish below 838 with 828 and 803 as target
Neutral Zone between 838-847
Intra day Trading Strategy: Sell only on a consolidated fall below 838 for 831 and 825
NATURAL GAS
Bullish over 243.80 with 253.80 and 258 as price target
Bearish below 238 with 232 and 227 as price target.
Intra day Trading Strategy: Buy on dips as long as 243 holds
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
COMEX GOLD APRIL
100 day MA around $1093 is the key resistance and gold needs to break the same for $1117+. On the lower side fresh wave of selling will be there only $1070.90 to $1057.
Till Monday as long as gold trades over $1055 it will rise to $1103 and $1127
We prefer to wait and watch and sell at higher prices only if gold is unable to break $1100. However jobbers can buy over $1086 for $1091 and $1103 with a stop loss below $1081
COMEX SILVER MARCH
200 day MA around $1586 is the key resistance and a break of the same will result in $1630-$1670. On the lower side as long s $1490 holds downside risk will be limited.
We prefer to buy silver only on a consolidated break of $1547 for $1555 and $1577.
COMEX COPPER MARCH
Copper needs to trade over $311 else it will fall to $302.30 and $294.30. Buy prefer to buy only on a consolidated break of $311 for $313 and $315
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Crude oil is trading in a wider $70.50-$77.50 range and a new range will be established by next week. At lower prices a fresh wave of selling will be there only on a consolidated fall below $71.19 or failure to break past $76.0.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
Customer care: 9811139549/9311139549
Reasearch: 9312335649
Chat id chintan342@yahoo.co.in (10 am to 10 pm)
You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com
-- Posted Friday, 12 February 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
