-- Posted Thursday, 11 March 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
Yesterday I had left for dinner around 9:35 pm (Indian time) and gold prices were trading at $1125 and when I returned from my dinner around 10:40pm (Indian time) gold prices had crashed to $1105. In less than an hour all commodities had crashed including base metals and energies. Currencies and equity markets were trading in a range. Commodities were delinked from every market. Moves like yesterday are happening very frequently and the situation is such that day traders and jobbers cannot leave the market even for a single minute as anything can happen. The best strategy for day traders is not to leave any open position when they leave their trading terminals. Investors need not worry but need to increase their risk appetite while investing in commodities.
The data vacuum will be over today and investors will be looking forward to economic numbers from Eurozone and US for direction. The overall behavior of the markets seems to be confusing at the moment with technical factors playing their own role.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER MAY
Bullish over $339.60 with $346.40 and $354.0 as price target
Bearish below $333 with $329 and $323 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $333 and $339.60
Support: $339.60 and $328.10
Resistance: $347.10 and $354.10
Copper needs to trade over $339 else it will fall to $333 and $324
FORECAST FOR INTER BANK EURO-INDIAN RUPEE
Euro/Rupee rose to a high of around Rs.71 in 2009 and thereafter has been falling continuously. Indian exporters are the biggest losers particularly those who had not hedged their export receivables. Some of the exporters had even done their costing at Rs.63-Rs.65 zone for their Euro/Rupee export orders. In our view inter bank euro-Indian rupee can fall to Rs.60.50 and Rs.58.50 if the slide continues and should thereafter rise to Rs.63.90 and Rs.65.70 in the next four months to five months.
Another question which I am being asked as to what should be the costing done for exports in euro/rupee exports? To be on the safer side it better to do costing for euro/rupee around Rs.58.50 and hedge the export orders if euro/rupee falls to Rs.59.0. Writing over the price of costing to be done is very easy but whether the exporter will be able to do the same in a highly competitive global business environment is an all together different scenario.
DISCLOSURE: NO POSITIONS
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
For further clarifications on this report call 91-9312335649 (Mr. Chintan Karnani)
Yahoo chat: chintan342@yahoo.co.in
You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com
-- Posted Thursday, 11 March 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
