-- Posted Thursday, 18 March 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
Germany has said that Greece should turn to the IMF if it needs aid which signals lack of consensus among Eurozone leaders over the bailout of Greece. Such moves will be counter productive for the euro/usd and it may not be hold on to the current gains for a longer duration. Commodity prices getting delinked from movement in currency markets suggest a lack of confidence among investors in investing in currency trading. In my view more and more currency traders are switching to commodity trading and other areas of investing in order to tide over uncertainties over the currency markets.
The US dollar has gained due to the failure of the euro as a currency to perform and that the fiscal problems among the member nations of Eurozone are deep rooted and cannot be eradicated in a single day. Central bank currency reserve diversification away from US dollars into others currencies may have stopped for the time being. Global central bankers may be diversifying into commodities and may also increase the size of their sovereign wealth funds. The US itself also has a very high fiscal deficit. Long term investment in any of the currency, whether it’s the US dollar, sterling or the euro will be classified as high risk investment under the current global scenario. Treasury yields are low to invest. In my view gold even at the current prices is a better long term investment than currencies. Over the next three years I do not foresee gold prices falling below $830 an ounce (under the worst case scenario) with every possibility of $2000. However emerging market equities should outperform gold.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER MAY
Bullish over $1726 with $1765 and $1798 as price target
Bearish below $1708 with $1688 and $1628 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1708-$1726
Support: $1688, $1708 and $1726
Resistance: $1756 and $1777
A consolidated break of $1755 will result in $1777 and $1830
CANADIAN DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE INTER-BANK RATES FORECAST
The Canadian dollar has been trading against the Indian rupee between 42.50-45.50 over the past few months. I do not expect CAD/INR to break 47.00 in 2010 with every possibility of 41.10 and 39.70 in the second half of the year. CAD/INR can gain in the April to June quarter but I have my doubts whether it will be able to make further gains after June. Unless crude oil prices edge past the $110 mark in 2010 gains in the loonie will be limited also against the US dollar.
DISCLOSURE: NO POSITIONS
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employee have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice .Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
For further clarifications on this report call 91-9312335649 (Mr. Chintan Karnani)
Yahoo chat: chintan342@yahoo.co.in
You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com
-- Posted Thursday, 18 March 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
