-- Posted Wednesday, 7 April 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
A technical break out in gold along with renewed slambang in the euro resulted in gold edging higher. This trend should continue today also. Lower interest rates and stable interest rates along with higher global growth will result in commodities rising further. Central banks are apprehensive to start liquidity reduction measures on fears that it will retard growth in their region. Investment interest in commodities should rise further. However one needs to watch for profit taking in base metals as net long positions are pretty high.
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$83.74 | $84.30 | $85.70 | $86.10 | $87.45 | $88.15 | $89.20 | $90.80 |
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Bullish over $85.70 with $87.70 and $89.90 as price target
Bearish below $84.70 with $82.70 and $81.80
Neutral Zone between $84.70-$85.70
As long as $84.70 holds crude oil will target in $87 and $91. Selling will be there only on a consolidated break of $84.70.
OUR FORECAST FOR EURO/USD, USD/INR AND EURO/RUPEE TILL 30TH SEPTEMBER 2010
EURO/USD
In the short term the overall trend for the euro/usd is bearish below 1.4200. There will be a technical breakdown if it closes below 1.3050 for four consecutive days to 1.2130. We expect the euro/usd to fall to 1.3050 and 1.2725 before 31st May and then start to rise to 1.3800 and 1.4050 by end September.
USD/INR
We expect the rupee to test 43.30 and 41.70 before 31st March 2011. However there will be a temporary rise to 45.50 and 46.30. The rupee can fall to 41.70 if it trades below 44.20 for 15 consecutive days.
We prefer to sell forward short term export receivables around 44.80 and 45.30 zone while for medium term to long term receivables we prefer to sell around 45.30 till 46.00 and/alternately take a forward cover if rupee falls below 44.10.
EURO/INR
Since 2007 euro/inr has not fallen below 53.0. The overall long term direction is bearish for euro/inr as long as it trades below 62.80. For euro/inr to be in a bull run and rise it needs to trades over 62.80 for ten consecutive days.
We expect eur/inr to fall to 56.89 in short term and thereafter a rise to 61.50 and 65.80 in the medium term to long term.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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-- Posted Wednesday, 7 April 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
