-- Posted Tuesday, 1 June 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
Rise in geopolitical risk after the Israeli raid at Gaza strip on a ship carrying aid resulted in gold rising. The rise in geopolitical risk will only result in gold rising further and nothing else. After North Korea its Israel now. Technically gold looks headed for $1256 and $1356. Over the past few years after 7/7 geopolitical risk has failed to support gold but I do not expect history to repeat itself.
It’s a new month. Over the past few years gold has had a relatively subdued period between June and mid September and it remains to be seen whether history repeats itself. In my view history may not repeat itself this summer unless (A) Geopolitical risk subside (B) Some form of stability returns to the market after the European fiscal crisis in May.
China will be the key for base metals in June and any Chinese slowdown in June will result in short term bear phase for base metals. The US summer driving season begins from June and will continue till September. The US hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico starts from June and will last till November. These factors will prevent crude oil from a major crash over the next few months unless fundamentals turn bearish.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER JULY
Bullish over $307.10 with $318 and $324 as price target
Bearish below $303 with $296 and $291 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $303-$307.10
Looks bearish and can fall to $301 and $292 as long as it trades below $312.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Bullish over $72.74 with $76.50 and $79.40 as price target
Bullish over $70.50 with $69.50 and $67.50 as price target.
Crude oil now targets $76.40 and $79.80 as long as it trades over $72.50.
Indian Rupee (Usd/inr)—Update
The key is the distribution of monsoon rainfall and how quickly it spreads into different parts of India for the rupee in the short term. We expect the rupee to fall to 45.50 and 44.80 in June and further weakness will be dependent on the ability to break 48.16. Only a break of 48.16 will negate the bullish view on Usd/Inr.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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-- Posted Tuesday, 1 June 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
