-- Posted Wednesday, 29 September 2010 | Digg This Article
| | Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
A weaker US dollar along with a technical break out resulted in gold and silver rising while copper and other base metals remained firm. Investors are in a dilemma as Europe, UK and Japan economic zones are all in stimulus package mode. Unless the foundations of the economy are not improved these stimulus packages will act only as a short term to medium term measure to kick start the economy. But there are risks associated such as (A) fuelling asset bubbles (B) Higher deficits and unmanageable deficits in the long run among others.
Looking at the current global economic situation and political situation it seems gold and other safe havens will continue their rise till March 2011. In between there will very wild swings/corrections. As far as the stock markets are concerned and the US dollar, I have my doubts if they are able to maintain the momentum after November. The Dow Jones can rise to 12000 but after that fundamentals will take and thereafter there can be a correction to 9000 once the effects of stimulus package begin to fade. The Indian BSE Sensex can rise to 22,000 or maybe even 25000 but thereafter a correction to 18000 could be possible once foreign investors withdraw for the short term. In 2011, we do not expect the BSE Sensex to fall below 17500 with every possibility of 27000 and 29500. The only risk to my bullish view on Indian stock markets is a big slide in global stock markets.
TODAY
The momentum is bullish and better to trade with the momentum; use higher stop losses but watch the US dollar. Euro/usd has broken the key technical resistance of 1.3507 yesterday; a close over 1.3507 on Friday will result in 1.4302 and 1.4740 in October. Vulnerabilities to fall will be there in euro/usd.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER
Bullish over $1301.0 with $1317 and $1329.90 as price target
Bearish below $1297.00 with $1291 and $1282 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1297-$1301
A close over $1301 will be very positive for gold which suggest that $1329 and $1352 could be there in short term
COMEX SILVER DECEMBER
Bullish over $2145 with $2188 and $2237 as price target
Bearish below $2100 with $2088 and $1940 as price target
Neutral Zone between $2100-$2145
A consolidated break of $2188 will result in $2200 and $2271
COMEX COPPER DECEMBER
Bullish over $359.00 with $367 and $373 as price target
Bearish below $357 with $355.00 and $347.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $355-$359
Fresh wave of selling will be there below $357 only
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Bullish over $75.70 with $77.70 and $80.60 as price target
Bearish below $74.70 with $72.20 and $66.49 as price target
Intra day fresh wave of selling will be there only below $75.70
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
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-- Posted Wednesday, 29 September 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com
