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Iran Update and Resurgence of Geopolitical Risk – Effect On Commodities



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants


-- Posted Monday, 29 November 2010 | Digg This ArticleDigg It! | | Source: GoldSeek.com

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia repeatedly exhorted the United States to "cut off the head of the snake" by launching military strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program, according to leaked U.S. diplomatic cables.

A copy of the cable dated April 20, 2008, was published in the New York Times website on Sunday after being released by the whistleblowing website WikiLeaks. The classified communication between the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and Washington showed the Saudis feared Shi'ite Iran's rising influence in the region, particularly in neighboring Iraq.

The United States has repeatedly said that the military option is on the table, but at the same time U.S. military chiefs have made clear they view it as a last resort, fearing it could ignite wider conflict in the Middle East.

Israel could strike Iran without US help: WikiLeaks

The United States has told France that Israel could strike Iran without US military support but the operation might not be successful, according to a leaked document published on the WikiLeaks website.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates gave his assessment at a meeting on February 8 in Paris with former French defense minister Herve Morin, according to a secret summary of the session that was posted on WikiLeaks, part of a massive document dump of classified cables.

OUR VIEW     

Any armed attack on Iran (whether directly by the USA or indirectly by the USA through Israel) and/Or very high chances of use of military force against Iran can result in gold, silver and other safe havens zooming. Gold can easily rise of $1500 or $1600 while silver can rise to $30.00 and $34.00 in short term as and when there are these risks. Global stock markets could plunge very sharply as investors will prefer to sit on cash taking a toll on base metals and energies as well. North Korean tension still persists. Any sustained escalation in North Korea and Iran can result in emerging markets stocks plunging and emerging market currencies getting weaker on higher outflows.

The global economy has just started to grow after the 2007 crisis. War will knock the growth and move the global economy into recession. Prudence says that the USA along with its allies should avert a war for the sake of their economies. But politicians have a different mind set as they are never prudent. My personal view that there will not be any armed attack of Iran. Diplomacy will reign in and if diplomacy does not reign in then the common man will only suffer as they lose their jobs.

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in

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You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com


-- Posted Monday, 29 November 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com


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