-- Posted Thursday, 13 January 2011 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
Weakness in the US dollar along with lack of news for a sell off in commodities has resulted in all of them rising. There is scope for further gains as long as the US dollar trades with a softer bias. The European sovereign debt crisis in the headlines will result in continued demand of gold and other safe havens at lower prices. Technically all commodities are bullish and have room for further gains.
European Sovereign debt crisis
German Deputy Foreign Minister Werner Hoyer called the Portugal bond auction “good news” and proof that a European-led financial rescue should not be forced upon the government. The European sovereign debt crisis will continue to invade investor mindset for the whole of the year. Solving it will not be a one day affair, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy and other black holes of eurozone will be monitored every month, quarter and half yearly and investors will reshuffle their portfolio accordingly. Despite the bullish trend commodities will be choppy for the whole of 2011. Last week’s fall and this week’s subsequent recovery have made me believe that commodity investors will be shaken by the very high volatility this year and that 2011 could be another day trader’s paradise. Long term (6 months to 18 months) commodity investors should be prepared for thirty percent fluctuations in their portfolios and if they are not prepared for the same then they better invest in treasuries. Eurozone crisis will not affect emerging market stock in a big way on strong fundamentals. I find Indian stock markets very attractive and one can invest in selected stocks at the current prices and on every ten percent dips. Under the worst case scenario the BSE Sensex will not fall below 18000 (under the current circumstances), which is just a ten percent downside risk and a twenty five percent upside potential. However the pace of the rise will be very slow.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX COPPER MARCH
Bullish over $436 with $443 and $452 as price target
Bearish below $432 with $428 and $424 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $432-$436
Copper can rise to $447 and $452 as long as it trades over $437. Intra day there will be sellers below $437 only.
Keep a close watch at $452. There will be a technical breakout over $452 to $477 and $496.
MCX COPPER FEBRUARY
A break of Rs.447 will result in Rs.452 and Rs.457. On the lower side as long as Rs.438 holds downside will be limited. There will be sellers below Rs.438 only today.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
Customer care: 9811139549/9311139549
You can also mail your queries at chintan@insigniaindia.com
-- Posted Thursday, 13 January 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
