-- Posted Friday, 25 February 2011 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS/FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR
TODAY
For the time being the fall in gold, silver and crude oil is just profit taking after a spectacular rise since last Friday. This is just a technical correction which if continues till Monday will start the beginning of a few days of a bear trend. Libya is not over yet.
Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s world was shrinking yesterday as a close adviser abandoned him, opponents consolidated their control of the country’s oil-rich east, and Switzerland froze some of his assets. It will take months if not years for the Middle East and North African crisis to settle down peacefully. Till then the overall trend in gold and silver are bullish. One should use sharp dips to invest for a period of two years. Crude oil will continue to have wild swings. Yesterday profit taking brought crude oil down after it reached a high of $103. We are looking at $90-$110 as the new trading band. Anything below $90 should be used to invest for the short term. Buying end 2012 call options with a strike price of $220 will also be a good investment.
Global economic fundamentals will not get derailed by the current crude oil price rise. Base metals are in a bullish trend this zone. One should use sharp dips to invest for the long term. LME Copper is not expected to fall below $8500 this year with every possibility of $12000+. So the risk to return favors the buyer in copper at the moment.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD APRIL
Bullish over $1406 with $1414 and $1434 as price target
Bearish below $1400 with $1393 and $1381 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1400-$1406
- Gold needs to break $1424 today else it will fall to $1390 and $1382 before the next move higher to $1425+
- Only if gold remains below $1396 in US session that there can be a big sell off.
- Keep a close watch at $1393 and $1412 as a break of either of these prices will result in big moves.
- Trading call: Buy gold around $1388 stop loss below $1374 and price target $1414 and $1434. Jobber can buy gold over $1406 for $1410 and $1414 with a stop loss below $1400
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Bullish over $97.10 with $101.80 and $105.50 as price target
Bearish below $96.10 with $95.10 and $93.50 as price target.
The first phase of rise to $103 is over. Crude oil now needs to trade over $97 to be in bullish zone and target $103 once again. A close below $93 today will be very positive for next week.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared By Chintan Karnani. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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-- Posted Friday, 25 February 2011 | Digg This Article
| Source: GoldSeek.com
