-- Posted Thursday, 15 April 2004 | Digg This Article
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
APRIL 2004 (#3) Vol. 8 No. 4-3
P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951
E-mail Addresses
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(for correspondence)
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SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $99.95 U. S. Funds. Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges. Provide us with your card number and expiration date. We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note: We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com.
For more than 3-years we have refrained from increasing our subscription rates when many other publications have raised theirs. In some instances other subscriptions are 50% to 400% the cost of ours and many do not put out anywhere near the volume and variety we do.
We have no intention of raising our subscription prices, but we would like to request a favor. Our credit card rates have increased so we’d like to ask you if you would pay by check. It costs nothing for us to deposit a check. We appreciate your help very much and thanks for being loyal subscribers.
Foreigners may use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.
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Our favorite Internet sites for gold and silver information are Goldseek.com, Silverseek.com and CapitalUpdates.com.
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Col. Donn de Grand-Pre., US Army (Ret.), has written three books on 9/11 and we think you might be interested in reading them. They are: “Barbarians Inside the Gates”, “The Vipers Venom” and “The Rattler’s Revenge”. They can be obtained by writing to P. O. Box 1124, Madison, Va 22727. Send in care of Grand-Pre Publishing, Ltd., include $30.00 each for the first two books and $45.00 for the third.
Incidentally, we have no financial back door arrangement with any publishers.
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We now recommend the “Brotherhood of Darkness”, a fine book to add to your knowledge of the elitist conspiracy. We have known the author, Dr. Stan Monteith, for many years and believe this is another gem on the subject.
BROTHERHOOD OF DARKNESS
This unique book identifies the covert groups that rule the world, and the secret that has motivated them down through the centuries.
Call 877-479-8178 to order the book ($12.95), the video, ($19.95) or the audiotape. The Brotherhood of Darkness Special includes all three for $29.95. Plus a free Silver Dollar is you order from this toll free number.
Listen to Radio Liberty roadcasts 5 hours weekdays at www.radioliberty.com, or to our shortwave broadcasts on WHRI at 5.745 MH weekdays from 3-5 pm and 8-10 pm Pacific Time.
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Have I got a book for you! You think you know all about money? Well, so did I – until I started reading The Creature from Jekyll Island; A Second Look at the Federal Reserve, by G. Edward Griffin. Sure, I had a good working knowledge of how our banking system functions and how money is created out of nothing to make loans, but I was blown away by the magnitude of the scam as it has evolved over the years. What a wild ride through history this is as the author reveals where money comes from, where it goes, and who makes it. The money magicians' secrets are unveiled, and you will get a close look at their mirrors and smoke machines, their pulleys, cogs, and wheels that create the grand illusion called money. A dry and boring subject? Just wait! You'll be hooked in five minutes. Reads like a detective story — which it really is. But it's all true: the cause of wars, boom-bust cycles, inflation, depression, prosperity. Your worldview will definitely change. This book is available on the Internet from The Reality Zone. The link is http://www.realityzone.com/creature.html.
Special Offer: You may also order it by calling Midas Resources Inc. at 877-479-8178. Midas Resources will give you a silver dollar from the early 1900s (a $12 value) just for purchasing the book at its normal price of $19.95.
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We found a new release by Laurence Gardner, “Last Secrets of the Sacred Ark”, very intriguing. Gardner’s amazing revelations of the incredible power of gold is extremely thought provoking. The publisher is Harper Collins and in England “element.” Gardner’s other books are, “Bloodline of the Holy Grail”, “Genesis of the Grail Kings” and “Realm of the Ring Lords.” Gardner presents a controversial and intriguing study of the Ark’s significance and the stunning power to transmute gold into an anti-gravitational state. Laurence Gardner is a Fellow of the Society of Antiquaries, is an internationally renowned sovereign genealogist and historical lecturer. If he is correct, you will realize why gold s being sold by nations and being repurchased by the elitists.
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US MARKETS
Here is some food for thought. Confidence among US business leaders is stronger than at any time in the last 20 years. Based on March’s bogus employment growth figures they expect a return to strong profitability. The jobless recovery is over. Those bogus jobs for March, which we are sure will repeat in April, will guarantee higher interest rates, which guarantees lower stock, bond and real estate prices. That is why gold and silver are going up – they are real money. Wait until these business leaders see what inflation has in store for them.
The 10-year Treasury note is doing its magic. A rise in its rates has triggered a rise in mortgage rates, which has dampened demand for home loan refinancings. The MBA says their refinancing index declined 15% to 4,126.7 from the previous week’s 4,857.6. That is still over 50% of all mortgage loans. Last week we said if the 10-year stayed at 4.22%, we would see mortgage rates at 5.80%. The 10-year backed off to 4.17% and the 30-year mortgage rate was 5.75%. The MBA measure of demand for loans to buy homes, the purchase index, rose by 7.6% to 477.5 from 443.8 in the prior week. Their seasonal adjusted market index, a measure of activity fell 7.2% to 1,012.9. Sir Alan Greenspan still encourages Americans to leverage themselves as much as possible.
Higher oil prices are going to start raising havoc soon. Of course, gas pump prices have already taken their toll and will continue to so do. Businesses either raise prices or have lower profits. It is just that simple. Businesses that hold out on passing on their costs will simply see their share prices fall. Oil’s effect on the economy is enormous, not the piddling 8% that the elitist experts would have us believe. We use oil in almost everything we use. Any price higher than $32.00 a barrel spells trouble.
March import prices rose 0.9% reflecting the drop in the dollar and an increase in costs of oil and other raw materials. Oil was up only 0.2%. This was the sixth straight increase following a 0.4% increase in February. The expert economists were wrong by 30% again, what geniuses. Imports, including petroleum, last month cost 1.2% more than in March 2003. On the other hand, exports rose 0.9% in March, the seventh straight increase due to the lower dollar. February was up 0.7%. The 12-month increase was 3.4% in March, the biggest since the 4.1% in the year through November 1995. Prices for agricultural products shipped abroad surged 3.3%, the seventh consecutive gain. Over the past 12 months, such costs increased 20.7%, the most since 24.8% in the year ended May 1996. Costs for non-agriculture exports rose 0.6%, the same as in February. Now get this, St. Louis Fed President, William Poole, rejected several conventional inflation signals, including commodity prices, as reliable near-term indicators of retail prices. It is obvious a desperate Fed has to lie about the cause and effect of inflation.
Isn’t anyone getting the message? Sales of stocks by US corporate insiders flashed a bearish signal for the eleventh straight month in March. They sold $3.5 billion of their own companies’ stocks in March, which was down from $5.1 billion in February. They have sold so much maybe they are running out. The ratio of sales to buys was 28.4 versus 54.6 in February. This is a one-year sell signal, which shows you the extent of market manipulation by the “Plunge Protection Team.” These executives are bailing out and you should be too.
Soybean prices are in the process of doing to food prices what oil is doing to gasoline prices. Worse yet, other food ingredients have doubled like butter, eggs, wheat, etc. This is pure commodity inflation and it certainly won’t end prior to the end of the year. Soybeans touched $11.00, up from $4.00 not that long ago. Food prices will rise at least 3.5% this year. It is surprising that retail prices are really just starting to go up.
Overall household debt is $9.4 trillion, of that $6.7 trillion is mortgage debt and $745 billion is credit card debt. Borrowers have little or no savings and the delinquency rates are high at 2.68%. If cardholders miss a single payment, their 3% interest rates immediately jump to 18%, which just about buries them. Another factor is rising interest rates that are just around the corner. Bankruptcies nationally are already at record highs and those seeking credit counseling are becoming an epidemic and rates haven’t even moved up yet. This time the elderly are going to get hit very hard. Try living on $800.00 a month from Social Security when you are in your 80’s with $8,000 in credit card debt. It is not a pretty picture and it will get worse.
Consumer credit grew $4.2 billion in February or at a 2.5% annual pace to $2.02 trillion. Auto loans were up $2.6 billion and revolving credit and credit cards rose $1.6 billion. They just keep on piling it on.
The overseers of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac want them to provide more liquidity in the home-loan market so that homebuyers across the country have access to mortgages and to promote affordable housing and homeownership for lower income Americans. Both agencies are virtually giving away homes to people who have no financial qualifications to own them, and these idiots want them to just give everyone a home. Of course, Fannie and Freddie are overjoyed. They believe because 75% of white Americans own homes every minority and illegal immigrant should also have a home. This is just another redistribution of wealth and an increase in our debt burden. When this thing collapses it will be a nightmare as all these people lose their homes.
Wal-Mart’s rock bottom wages and benefits cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollar a year in basic housing, medical, childcare and energy needs that the retailer fails to properly cover for its employees. More of their employees’ families are on welfare, then any other company in the county. They have created a major burden for the taxpayer. Wal-Mart is also the largest importer of Chinese goods, some 10% of their exports. Fifty-three percent of Wal-Mart’s clothing comes from China. Wal-Mart is America’s largest corporation and is a black stain on our economy.
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GOLD , SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS
Last year the UAE sold its gold to make what they call a diversification of assets and what we call an order to sell by the White House.
Over the last two weeks, there has been a reduction of 2500 silver contracts by commercial shorts. If this continues it could turn into a stampede as the naked short position explodes. It is the function of the Comex to guarantee that there is enough silver in inventory to cover the reserve position. Silver will probably have its explosion before gold and it could be the trigger to take down the entire financial edifice. That is because the silver manipulation is more visible than that of gold. Silver has been illegally depressed and the numbers are there for all to see. The shorts are short 478 million ounces of silver. Yearly production is about 590 million ounces; yearly demand is 840 million ounces, a deficit of about 250 million ounces. The shortfall heretofore has been met by above ground inventory, which we contend is gone or almost totally gone. Comex holds 125 million ounces of silver. That means one large buyer could take delivery of the Comex reserve. If they did, prices would go crazy.
Gold shares have done very well over the past four years. The majors have made fine gains, but it is evident that they have come under selling and shorting pressure over the past four months. Traders, funds and hedge funds trade. That is how they make their living and it has to be expected. We watch the major gold shares all day every day and we can promise you with great assurance that these shares are being shorted by the gold cartel. That does not mean they will not perform well, they will.
It is now time to really concentrate on juniors ad exploration stocks. These are the stocks with the potential to go from $0.50 to $50.00. They did it between 1976 and 1981 and they will do it again. Majors are losing reserves as they produce. That is because they did not spend the money that they should have over the past ten years on exploration. They do not have the reserves for replacement in the pipeline. They have merged and that has helped them, but the easiest way for them to replace those reserves is to buy them. That means junior and exploration stocks will take on a completely new valuation. It takes two to three years to find an ore body. Only about one or two companies out of 100 finds an ore body. It then takes one to two years to complete feasibility and then two to three years to get into production. Thus, you are looking at four to eight years to make a mine. Financing was so difficult to get during the 1990s that little exploration was done by exploration companies and it has only been since 2000 that money has become available again. On top of this, regulatory bodies have done everything within their power and then some to destroy the mining industry at the grassroots. That means the place to be is in exploration companies. They do not have declining reserves; they have what majors need, expanding reserves. The gains in these stocks in the year’s ahead will be enormous. Gold production is falling. That means the price of gold has to go up. The overhang or inventory of above ground gold for sale is dwindling. Of 32,000 official tons in reserve, we estimate that between 22,000 and 28,000 have been sold or leased. This is not as good as the silver inventory situation, but it is very good. You have declining production, declining official reserves, very little new reserves in the pipeline and investment demand growing as investors flee fiat currencies, particularly the US dollar in which gold is denominated. In just Newmont, Anglogold and Barrick gold production for 2003 was off 30%. This year there will be a number of producers whose production will fall 5 to 10%. These major producers without reserves in the pipeline have to buy production to survive due to very poor management decisions and hedging during the 1990s.
Hans Welteke, son of Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke, said his father clashed with German Finance Minister Hans Eichel over the use of the central bank’s gold reserves before taking a leave of absence in conjunction with an investigation by the Frankfurt prosecutors’ office. In addition, the Bundesbank is resisting efforts by the government to install Deputy Finance Minster Caio Koch-Weser as its new president, which it considers a political attack on its independence. This, of course, is Gerhard Schroeder’s idea. He and Welteke had been collaborating on the gold sale behind the scenes. Koch-Weser wants to sell more gold than Welteke did. Chancellor Schroeder’s popularity is so low with the people and his party he would do anything to regain favor and spending piles of money from gold sales would help him politically. Schroeder wants to increase spending to 3.0% of GDP by 2010 from 2.5% presently. One group of politicians wants to use any proceeds to cut debt and the other to ostensibly spend it on research and education, which is a farce. Presently, by law it must be spent on debt reduction. In the middle of this political fight Welteke looks like he will lose his job and Hans Eichel is struggling to keep from being dismissed. As much as he wants to get his hands on the money Schroeder cannot fire Welteke and Eichel at the same time. Schroeder’s party, the SPD’s popularity, has dropped to 29% versus 48% for Helmut Kohl’s CDU. This is a party fight, between a group of socialist and Marxists, over who gets to spend the money from gold sales. Only 500 tons can be sold under the agreement by Germany. This does not affect any further gold sales over the next five years. Their phony sale is to make a bookkeeping entry, which allows further spending. The gold has already been leased or sold. In all probability leased. Thus, the gold is gone. This is what they are not telling you.
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SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $99.95 U. S. Funds. Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges. Provide us with your card number and expiration date. We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note: We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com.
