LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
International Forecaster June, 2004 (#2) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Wednesday, 9 June 2004 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

JUNE 2004 (#2) Vol. 8 No. 6-2

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951

E-mail Addresses

International_forecaster@yahoo.com (for correspondence)

IF_distctr@yahoo.com  (for information regarding your subscription or renewals)

 

CHECK OUR WEBSITE OUT

 ADDRESS IS:

www.theinternationalforecaster.com

 

 

SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $99.95 U. S. Funds.              Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com.

 

Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.

         

*****

Our favorite Internet sites for gold and silver information are Goldseek.com, Silverseek.com and CapitalUpdates.com.

*****

 

RADIO APPEARANCES

*****

I am a regular guest on the Genesis Communications Network family of programs.  I am also asked to speak as a Guest Expert on various other national talk radio programs.

Tune in to hear my latest analysis of current World events.

 

For current information about my upcoming appearances on GCN or any national program, call:  1-800-686-2237 extension 347 for details, or go to www.gcnlive.com for live streaming from your computer.

 

US MARKETS

The Working Group on Financial Markets better known as “The Plunge Protection Team” and the Fed are doing everything they can to move the stock market higher. They both continue to attempt to suppress the prices of silver and gold as each day more Americans realize the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have been failures. The Bush neocons had a yellow alert recently to take the atrocities at Abu Ghraib prison out of the headlines. The longer we stay bogged down in the Middle East the worse it is going to be. The Fed showing its “patriotism” is increasing aggregates at a $2 trillion annual clip.

 

                        Among us are a few executives with the guts to speak out and speak the truth. Bond guru Bill Gross warned that housing and commodity prices are becoming too speculative and he encouraged Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to hike US interest rates higher before we create too many more bubbles. Gross, Chief investment officer of PIMCO has already positioned his firm’s bond portfolios in anticipation of higher rates. He expects interest rates to rise 1% before the election, starting this month. We believe that is what they should increase, but we believe we will get 1/4% and if lucky 1/2%.

 

                        If earlier oil shocks are any guide, the result will be accelerating inflation and a global recession. That is if current prices are sustained. Since industrial countries are largely consumers and importers of oil, a rising price is always a negative factor on demand. The more consumers pay for oil products the less they can spend on other goods. At current price levels $31.00 per month per car in the US. For Corporations higher costs, lower investment, reduced profits and eventual layoffs. Japan gets hit the worst as 45% of its exports go to other Asian countries. GDP would fall 0.5% in 2005 with oil at current levels and a full 1% in 2006. Inflation would pick up by 0.7%. At $40.00 a barrel, Europe would lose 0.3% in GDP in 2005 and 0.4% in 2006. That could be off set if the euro rises to $1.30 again, which we believe it will. This price level has a detrimental effect on business and consumer confidence, especially if this is associated with rising interest rates and worse, if house prices decline.

 

                        Over the last four weeks the money supply has increased by $156 billion, which is equal to one-fifth of our nations annual output. The elitists do not want any slowdown until after the election. Annualized that is an increase in aggregates of almost $2 trillion a year almost double any increases the Fed has made in the past. Sir Alan Greenspan has increased the money supply by a staggering 58.3% over the past four years in order to keep America and the world afloat. In spite of this, the dollar is headed down to another test of 84-95 and it probably will test 80 before the election. 9.5% inflation and a negative bond return means there will be a panic out of dollars. A $1.30 euro is very possible before the election and 80 on the dollar index will break next year. This, of course, is very good news for gold.

 

                        JP Morgan Chase’s derivative book was $36 trillion at the end of 2003. It was up $3 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2003 alone. The figure is outrageous, which means Morgan is acting for the Fed. We recommend Morgan’s derivative book be audited and examined forensically.

 

                        ARMS are up 130% over last year, they made up 50% of all loans over the past two years and they make up 30% of all loans and that is terrifying.

 

                        GMAC now contributes two out of every three dollars of GM profits with more than half of the financing profits completely unrelated to the auto business. Wait until interest rates rise. There may not be a GM in five years. Unless, of course, the corporate fascists nationalize it. Once the market starts down then the economy will spike and we are afraid there will be no one to sell to.

 

Families who can afford a monthly mortgage payment but do not have enough money for a down payment on a home can apply for assistance through a new government program under HUD, the most corrupt of our government agencies. HUD will distribute over $161 million to state and local agencies to help first-time homebuyers defray the costs of the down payment and closing costs typically due at settlement. Grants will be up to $10,000 or 6% of the purchase price. The money can be used to rehabilitate the property. Our government is not only giving houses away but they will pay you to buy one. The program is to help minorities and illegal aliens. That is because fewer than 50% own their own homes and this is a way to drive up housing prices. The Bush neocons want $200 million for next year. This is no way to run a country on a financially sound basis.

 

                        Hospitals are seeing a sharp rise in people not paying their bills. It is probably 30% of billings. Kaiser will spend $41 billion this year to cover medical costs for the uninsured. In some instances 50% of hospital earnings are being wiped out. Due to the cost of medical care the situation can only worsen, especially with a recession facing us in 2005 and millions of illegal aliens streaming over the border.

 

                        The Republican’s defeat in South Dakota last week shows that not only the presidency is at risk, so is control of Congress. Last time around Bush received 60% of the vote in this district. The public is rebelling against phony terrorist tactics, another war lost, which only served to enrich Mr. Bush’s elitist friends, massive deficits and virtual draft as thousands of soldiers are forced to continue serving in combat long after there enlistments are up.

 

                        New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has sued British pharmaceuticals group Glaxo Smith Kline PLC claiming fraud over its antidepressant drug Paxil. The company withheld negative information about Paxil and misrepresented data concerning its safety and efficacy in children and adolescents. They suppressed facts showing increased risk of suicide. More than two million prescriptions for Paxil were written for children and adolescents in the US in 2002. Finally, the truth is winning out thankfully to the giant efforts and guts of Dawn Rider.

 

                        Dick Cheney says John Kerry does not support an increase in gasoline taxes of $.50 cents a gallon but he voted three times to increase those taxes.

 

The secret elitist Bilderberger group is now in session in Stresa, Italy, at the Grand Hotel des Iles Borromees. Here is a preliminary list of Illuminists and soon to be Illuminists. Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition. We wonder how he reconciles Christianity with Satanism because this is a group of Satanist. Incidentally, just south of the meeting in Rome, our Satanist President was meeting with the Pope. In attendance was Democratic Senator Jon Corzine and John Edwards, Henry Kissinger, Richard Perle, Bill Gates’ wife Melinda, the ominous David Rockefeller, Tim Geithmer of the NY Fed, Don Graham of the Washington Post, the President of the CFR, Aspen Institute, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the American Enterprise Institute. We hope to get a more complete list and discussion points later.

 

                        A fellow subscriber says, “I have so much work because people are defaulting on their mortgages at a record pace in Orange and Los Angeles counties.” He is picking up properties for 70% below market value. He has had to hire more help because he cannot keep up with the volume. “The volume of Chapter 13 bankruptcies is incredible. In the four years I’ve been working the foreclosure market, I’ve never seen so many 13’s being filed. The volume is so enormous that paralegals are advertising and pawning themselves off as attorneys. I am there to help the people get out of their situation, believe me when I say there are sharks out there who will stop at nothing to screw these poor people out of their homes.” In order for my industry to keep a handle on this hemorrhaging and postpone complete destruction, they have imposed heavy underwriting guidelines and are putting pressure on underwriters, loan officers and processors to scrutinize each borrower closely. There can be no safety in a hyperinflation market, which is scientifically being created and sustained. I’ve always said the media is the mouthpiece of the people’s minds forming opinion on our housing market here in Southern California.”

 

            Russian is in the planning stages of a proposed northern pipeline, earlier known as the Murmansk project, which would support oil exports to the US. The costs will be borne by Russia through the feasibility stage. After that the project would be funded by the US Trade and Development Agency, or by American taxpayers. Feasibility would cost $100 million. The project has not yet begun, but it would start in Surgut in Western Siberia and run to the village of Indega on the Barents Sea. It would carry 1.2 million B/O/D. Moscow is interested in developing the US as a market for Russian oil and gas, citing potential liquefied natural gas exports from offshore artic gas deposits as holding the most interest. The Shtokmanovskoye gas fields in the Barents Sea are viewed as the main source of supply.

 

                        Yukos has been stripped of its controlling stake in Sibneft and has a tax bill that could push it into bankruptcy. It still owns 35%. The tax claims are $3.4 billion. The company will be able to only pay 70% of the bill.

 

More for subscribers....

 

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

 

The bad news throughout the world piles up and gold stalls at $400.00 as the US government via their gold and silver cartel members continue to pressure the market. Refinancing is falling with new home sales. The effort to drive the 10-year Treasury note below 4.625% was unsuccessful. It is now back to 4.75%. We saw 22 people killed in Khofar, Saudi Arabia and the Saudi government let the murders go. Thirty-six dead in explosions in Baghdad. Oil trades over $42.00 a barrel. The CRB climbs 4.50 to 281.75. Soybeans and corn locked limit up, wheat jumped $0.26 to $3.88 a bushel. Our fleet is headed into the China Sea. Again, on the plus side gold open interest continues to fall to about 234,000 contracts. This allows the specs plenty of room to enter the market. Silver interest also remains relatively low at around 86,000 contracts. As you can see, the fundamentals are again in place for another upward run in gold and silver.

 

AIG International Ltd., part of AIG Group, Inc., will no longer be a London Bullion Market Association market maker in gold and silver. They were a first-tier market maker and dealer in over-the-counter spot, forward and swap markets in precious metals. This departure follows the exit of Rothschild from the London gold pool. It looks like hedging is over.

 

                        Consumer demand for gold including jewelry and retail was up 12% in the first quarter from last year and up 30% in dollar terms. That happened even as the average gold price moved from $352 to $408 an ounce. The big buyers were Japan, Turkey, Vietnam, UAE, India and Saudi Arabia. Total gold supply fell 7%, which is enormously significant and portents pressure for higher gold prices. Production will probably fall again in 2004, some 4-6%. These factors may be why commercials are longer than they have been in many years. Net short positions are under 20%, which could not be more bullish. Let’s not forget a weakening dollar. All in all the fundamental case is very bullish.

 

                        There is something really serious going on behind the scenes. We see the Plunge Protection Team (working group on Financial Markets) holding the Dow and other averages in line, they are trying to break the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note below 4.625% to strengthen bonds and they are blatantly forcing gold and silver lower in spite of heavy buying. We do not, as yet, know what is up, but it must be real bad. Recently the ECB warned Europeans to move out of dollar related assets. Japan has been a dollar seller, as well as stocks, agencies and US government debt. This is the first time we have seen them as large net sellers. The SEC plans to ease the rule banning short selling when stocks are falling. If we had a major derivative failure, we could see a horrible drop in the stock market. A seat on the NYSE just dropped over 25%. Does that have significance? Is the dollar about to drop another 40%? Is the plug being pulled on the GSE’s and the housing market? We look for a 35% to 80% plunge in real estate. Is this it? We will let you know what is going on as soon as we find out. In the meantime, keep buying gold and silver coins and shares, fortunes could soon be a reality for those with foresight.

 

More for subscribers....

 

                ** Receive an Introductory Copy of the IF -- See  Below **

      Full 30-page issue of this newsletter available to subscribers only

 

SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $99.95 U. S. Funds.              Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com.

 

   Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.

 


-- Posted Wednesday, 9 June 2004 | Digg This Article



Special Offer:
CGI Central - custom CGI and PHP scripts

** Receive an Introductory Copy of the IF -- Please Use the Form Below**

Required Fields marked with *
*Name
Please enter your first & last name.
*Email
E-mail where free issue will be sent


Please allow 24 hours for a response to your request.



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.