-- Posted Monday, 16 August 2004 | Digg This Article
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
August 2004 (#3) Vol. 8 No. 8-3
P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951
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US MARKETS
Persons who want a job, have looked for a job, but are discouraged, were 504,000 in June, up 5.4%. Those who held multiple jobs were 7,521 million, up 2.2% for a rise of only 5.4% from June. Those with both full and part-time jobs were 1.711 million, up a huge 6.0% since June. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index has now been declining for the last six months. Typically, the index leads the economy by eight months. It is not yet signaling a recession, but the clear trend is down and bears repeated watching. Car sales are soft and home delinquency rates are close to record levels. Mortgage refinancing is down dramatically. That means less money to fuel the boom. The rise in home prices is stalling. We began slipping back into recession four months ago and unless Sir Alan opens the money spigots in a big way we will head into recession/depression very quickly. Low interest rates may be headed into a vacuum where the law of diminishing returns may assert itself. You offer the money and credit and only a few want to use them. There has been no real job growth this year and we believe that Wall Street professionals are just beginning to understand that. Without major real job creation, there can be no recovery. It also means that without that growth we will head toward recession unless the Fed prints even more money and credit. The stock market has been at an optimum for eight months. The 10,000 plus or minus level has been maintained by cheap available credit, via the PPT and the Fed’s repo pool. Earnings and P/E ratios are at an optimum as are profit margins. The only clear path is sideways and downward. There are no dotcoms on the horizon. Soon share returns will be flat, not the 8% to 10% expected and once that happens, people will begin to sell. Normal bear markets have 43% corrections. There is nothing normal about this correction coming. It will be as deep or deeper than 1929-34. That means a 60% to 70% correction because never has the economy been so abused in modern times. This has been coming since 1989, and only financial legerdemain and flimflammery has kept the US and world economy afloat. There is no reason any longer to be long the stock market and bonds, save the possibility of a political, Fed driven, election year rally. We still may get such a rally. As inflation continues to rise, the only thing holding the economy together is prohibitively low interest rates and the real estate boom engendered by those rates, Inflation is the wake up call. Once US Treasury paper is un-saleable, the Fed will have to buy hundreds of billions of dollar worth of paper and that monetization is immediately inflationary. They must also raise interest rates to calm those who already own Treasury paper so they won’t sell it as the dollar declines. The increase in interest rates will be seen as an effort to stabilize the dollar, which in finality will be fruitless. Sometime before or after the election interest rates will rise and the stock market will begin to decline. Ninety-five percent of stocks will fall and there will always be a handful that will rise. Again, we recommend gold and silver coins and shares, and euro and Swiss franc denominated CDs. Most everything else will be crushed.
The change in Iraq is a product of smoke and minors. Little has changed. Instead of elitist Bremer, we now have a CIA appointee. Like Afghanistan, Iraq has been invaded and will remain occupied for years to come. There will be no rebuilding, only the expeditious pumping of oil to pay for that occupation. There has been no liberation and there will be none. Since the faux changing of the guard in June, we officially lost 42 American soldiers and in July, 54 with no end in sight. Iraq is now more dangerous than ever; the insurgency is gaining momentum. The infrastructure is in chaos. Severe shortages of electricity, sewage tainting the water supply and typhoid and hepatitis are on the rise. This is what Iraq is about today and what it will be like tomorrow. This is where the elitists have us buried. There is no context for political debate. They own the two sides of the debate. If we cannot debate the issues then we will have to take another course of action.
Our new Iraqi government in the furtherance of democracy has closed the offices of the Arab television station, Al-Jazeera for 30 days, accusing it of inciting violence. The ban was due to their reporting the news of crimes and criminal activity. The new government says it has to protect its people. Our Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, says Al-Jazeera and the other main Arab news channel, Al-Arabeya, harm the image of the US and the Arab world. He delivered this message to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. The bottom line is George – the neocons – and all elitists do not want the truth to be told.
The latest ASU-KAET poll showed that 74% of likely voters support the Arizona Taxpayer & Citizen Protection Act; up from 70% nine months ago, while only 16% appose it and 10% were undecided. We would expect almost 80% will eventually support the measure. This issue is a national issue and once the vote is in you will see two-thirds of the states adapt similar measures. Voters should carefully poll their politicians and see where they stand on the issue and if they are against such an issue, you should vote them out of office. National polls already show overwhelming support for ending illegal immigration. Our politicians must be stopped from bankrupting America. Next is the end of free trade and globalization. In Arizona, PAN has been vehemently opposed by the Governor, the Mayor of Phoenix, their entire congressional delegation, arrogant pseudo-leaders from both major political parties, purported church and union leaders, every newspaper in the state, the Chambers of Commerce, construction and education lobbies, the Marxist groups and the entire pro-illegal alien forces, including immigration lawyers and other Hispanic groups. Proposition 200 will win in November and we hope it will be emulated in every state in the country. Illegal aliens are illegal and they are destroying the country’s superstructure. We commiserate with them in their plight, but we have a nation we do not want destroyed by the politicians who want votes and greedy businessmen who do not care how they get their profits.
We hope you enjoyed the latest phony orange terrorist alert. George and the neocons have one every time bad news is near. The spate of ugly reports last week qualify. The Dow obviously agreed down some 300 points, half of which occurred before the bad news, which indicates that those in the know knew ahead of time. Everything is phony in our society today. We have the PPT and the Fed via the bullion banks and brokerage houses rigging gold and silver prices, currencies, interest rates, stock indexes, commodity prices and elections. It leaves you with little belief in anything, with our government ranked number one on the hit parade. It is all part of psywar conditioning. Your papers please, you must answer our questions or you are automatically guilty. You will cooperate. The formulated agenda is that everything including intelligence is being manipulated and that is because they, the elitists, know best what is good for you. Where you are born, live, educated and what you will peruse as a career. Whether you will be allowed to breed and with whom or perhaps you will be designated to be a homosexual. After having a family you will be told where to live and work. Your wife may live and work in another city and your children will attend a government school in a third city. Government will rear your children, etc. etc. That is the brave new Orwellian world the elitists have in store for you, your children and your grandchildren. Homeland Security is not to defend and protect America and its citizens. It is a Fatherland Security to protect the fascist state from the people. The periodic threats planned and identified by Fatherland Security are about to become more numerous and finally the public is beginning to get suspicious. They are finally realizing that alerts are to divert attention from other negative events or issues. The dimwits in our society, who cannot think beyond their noses, will of course welcome a red alert, martial law and no elections. They will welcome and covet our government’s protection from those phantom monsters. Our controlled media, government, Wall Street, big business, bankers and the likes of propaganda specialist, like CNBC, will keep the public bamboozled, as our politicians will smear it is true. 05% of our politicians are bought and paid for, what do you expect. They can be counted on to be witnesses at your firing squad. It is like all those politicians representing Arizona citizens who back illegal immigration when 80% of their constituents are against it. They do not ever represent you, they represent themselves, reelection, feeding at the public trough and special elitist interests. They go along with the program because they have no decency. As alerts increase we will see more and more the presence of uniformed soldiers and swat teams in black garb, all with automatic assault weapons. This is part of the occupational presence that you will be conditioned for. Few will figure out they cannot stop bombs and that their presence is there to control and suppress the people. This is the acceptance of a police state. Soon it becomes normal. Due to their presence, you will no longer need your personal weapons, so you will be directed by executive order to relinquish them to the state, and if you do not and you are discovered with them in your possession, you will be shot. It is all conditioning for the New World Order. If you do not think we are headed in this direction, you are mistaken. This is to be our brave new world and anyone who does not cooperate will be silenced one way or another.
Just to give you an idea of the elitist thought process, which allows them to do as they please, the theft of classified government documents by Samuel Berger from our National Archives will not be prosecuted. Why? Because he only made copies and did not remove the originals. They forgot to consider that in his original visit he stole the original copies. They must think we are stupid. He is guilty of espionage and theft of government property, plan and simple. As you see, elitists are not prosecuted nor do they go to jail. Only you and I go to jail. We are not among the anointed. The man is a common thief. You didn’t see or hear of this in your media, did you?
Ahmad Chalabi and Salem Chalabi have had Iraq arrest warrants issued against them on counterfeiting charges. Ahmad is in hot water with his elitist Council on Foreign Relations’ pals and Salem heads the tribunal that is due to try Saddam Hussein on war crimes charges. One group of crooks trying another crook. Then again, we wonder if the counterfeit money found in Salem’s house was his or was it planted there. We’d guess it was planted there. Salem has also been named as a suspect in the June killing of Haithem Fadhil who was director general of the finance ministry. That also makes us suspicious of the guilt of Salem. We believe its elitist payback.
Retired General Tommy Franks who led the invasion of Iraq believes foreign troops will have to remain in Iraq for 3 to 5 years. He also says US troops will have to stay. Unfortunately, the retired general justifies what he and the conspiracy has done by defending both invasions and occupations and praises George W. Bush and his neocons.
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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONGS
Based on a fundamental historical perspective $45.00 oil should mean gold should be selling at about $750 and ounce. It is not selling at that level because international elitists are suppressing the price of gold and have been since 1987. The good news is that the end of the suppression is in site. In addition, oil is going higher, which will put further upward pressure on gold prices simply because of the inflation-higher oil prices will cause. Not only is overwhelming demand behind higher prices but also so are events. As an example, Mugtada Al-Sadr has stopped Iraq’s Southern Company from pumping oil. In addition, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela will win his referendum on 8/15/04. What happens if he decides to cut off oil supplies to the US?
Gold lease rates are in backwardation because of significant short-term leasing by central banks. They cannot lease gold fast enough to suppress the price. One-year rates are lower than one-month rates over the past few years. The elitists are pulling out all stops to suppress gold going into the election. That same thinking gives credence to a higher Dow. They aim to challenge all those physical buyers at $385 to $390. They also want to scare out the wimps that complain every day about how discouraged they are. What is wrong with our society is very few have guts anymore. The minute there is any heat investors want to wimp out. Have they not heard about being mentally strong? If they lose this gold battle, they will lose everything. These comments are not pointed at you subscribers. They are pointed at the people who visit the Internet with their babble and the letters I see in other hard money publications. We want to thank you for supporting us because the other newsletter writers have lost half their subscribes over the past year and a half. We have doubled our subscriptions over that period. We cannot take the easy way out. We all knew from the beginning this would be a hard fight.
For years, South African mining companies have been moving assets out of the country. The reason is that they have known for a long time that they would lose their assets to the tribal Marxists who took over the country. Gold Fields just moved $2.1 billion worth of assets, one more step away from South African government control. This is really what this is all about. We thought it very significant that the new Gold Fields International main offices would be in Denver and that the new companies shares would be listed in the US and Canada. Gold Fields is doing what we have been telling you to do and that is get out of South African investments.
Durban Deep whose earnings were off 50% has warned that rand strength would force more restructuring and job losses while it sought to keep diversifying into more overseas assets.
We find it very telling that the Central Fund of Canada appears to have received only 60% of the silver it purchased in late March.
On Thursday, silver warehouse stock fell 1,193,826 ounces to register a new low of 110,416,153.
The jewelry show in Jordan last week saw record sales, more than twice the usual in the event’s five-year history.
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SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $99.95 U. S. Funds. Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges. Provide us with your card number and expiration date. We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note: We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com.
Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.
-- Posted Monday, 16 August 2004 | Digg This Article
