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International Forecaster December, 2004 (#2) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Thursday, 9 December 2004 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

DECEMBER 2004 (#2) Vol. 8 No. 12-2

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951

E-mail Addresses

International_forecaster@yahoo.com (for correspondence)

IF_distctr@yahoo.com (for information regarding your subscription or renewals)

 

CHECK OUR WEBSITE OUT

ADDRESS IS:

www.theinternationalforecaster.com

 

** SPECIAL INVITATION **

 

Dear Subscriber:  We have not raised the cost of the IF for 5 years. Our costs have continued to rise. We have deliberately tried to keep the price down, but now it is just impossible. As of 1/1/05, we are raising our annual subscription charge to $129.95. We do hope you all understand. Bob

 

SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $129.95 U. S. Funds.

              Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com

 

Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.

                                                                        *****

 

US MARKETS

 

            Just like in the 1930s in Russia and Germany, the CIA is being purged of any elements that do not pledge allegiance to George and the neocons. A purging of patriots who tried to let the American people know what a mess Iraq had become, and how and why the war really started.

 

No matter what the next step is toward the invasion of Iran, efforts are being made to neutralize the EU’s success at getting Iran to at least postpone its nuclear ambitions. Americans are being sold on Iran being a religious dictatorship by a fanatical nutcase which, of course, is untrue. They had a national referendum 24 years ago, and they have a constitution in which women participate in the electoral process. In fact, the women are better educated than the men are. It is a democracy with scholarly Islamic oversight. Religious minorities also participate in government. Mohammad Khatami, the current President, is a reformer and parliament is controlled by reformers who keep the strident mullahs at bay. This system is unique and as long as it works for Iran, it is fine. It is not a dictatorship as we have been led to believe. It is probably the most democratic government in the Middle East. At least the elections are not rigged, as they are in the US. There are ten different political parties where many ideas are put forth. We have two parties, which are in total control of our political process. Both of parties are financed and controlled by the same group of elitists from behind the scenes. Compared to other governments in the Middle East, Iran is a shinning light. We believe Egypt and Israel are financed as client states of America. Then we have dictators in Jordan, Morocco, Kuwait, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Dubai, etc.  Why not just invade them all so we can bring the neocon brand of fascism to all of the Islamic countries of the Middle East. Then we can put pictures of George W. all over the region, as his legions occupy the lands of Islam. We do not agree with how Iran is being run, but we are neither Muslims nor Iranians.  We deplore as well, how our country is run, but that is not reason enough to destroy our government although we are getting there fast. Do not forget there are Christians in the Iranian government, but no Muslims in Washington. There is no viable reason for us to invade Iran and if we do, it will be done with the blood of your children as the elitists collect the benefits.

 

            Most everyone in China is dumping dollars, just asks anyone in the currency black market. It is only a matter of time before the yuan increases in value. No one wants US dollars, including the government. Over the last month, it has become almost impossible to sell dollars. There has been a 3.8% drop in foreign currency savings or $1.7 billion in household accounts. The conversion of dollar accounts to yuan accounts increased by 17% in September and 34% in October. The dollar is no longer considered stable; the yuan is the new hard currency. What the Chinese do not realize is that as the dollar sinks the US economy sinks and eventually the yuan sinks. That is why gold is a much better choice. The Chinese believe the yuan will be revalued shortly; they are wrong. It will take some time for that to happen. There could be a widening of the trading band for the yuan, but the change would be 2% at best. The Chinese do not realize that the financial system in China is in as bad a shape as that of the US. More than half the loans at the four state-run major banks are worthless. When the US goes into recession and depression, so will China and the remainder of the world. No currency is the final answer; only gold is the ultimate money.

 

            There are presently 29,786 new foreclosed residential properties listed for sale in the US as of the end of October. The total for America is now 81,106 properties. This is a greater increase by 5% than the September-October rise in total inventory for sale. Here are the largest inventories: Alabama 1,975; Colorado 2,533; Florida 1,587; Georgia 6,139; Illinois 2,901; Indiana 4,804; Kentucky 1,507; Michigan 5,268; Missouri 2,358; N. Carolina 5,685; New York 1,982; Ohio 6,278; S. Carolina 2,875; Tennessee 3,523; Texas 9,379 and Washington 1,566.

 

            Before they hedonize the Producer Price Index (PPI), as they have the Consumer Price Index (CPI), we have to reiterate that the PPI for October was 1.7%. That is 21% annualized. Regarding the CPI, if your work prices are expanding at a 7.44% rate, inflation is only 6.2%. That is official; our figure of 9.5% is right on the button.

 

            Credit card companies, such as MBNA, have just doubled interest rates from 9.2% to 18.4%. Users did not expect MBNA to invoke clauses that are tucked into the fine print of their contract agreements. Lenders are doubling or tripling interest rates with little warning or explanation, we warned you about this a number of times. This is the industry that made $2.5 billion a month in profit before taxes last year. Last year these Shylocks collected $11.7 billion in penalty fees, more than half of the fees they collected from cardholders. Once interest rates begin to rise, not only will rates rise, but also so will bankruptcies. Who knows, we may see 35% rates and then we can call these lenders, loan sharks international. We have warned you over and over and over again to get rid of credit cards and revolving debt.

 

Our attacks on Fallujah have brought us over 58 American boys killed and at least 425 wounded. We are told the figures are considerably higher, but the White House has never been known during this administration for being truthful. George and the neocons claim victory when militant opposition still controls 60% of the city. They must think we are stupid; the entire war has been a clustermuck. General Eric Shinseki said, “We needed 200,000 boots on the ground,” and for that he was promptly fired. The Rumsfeld-Bush decision has cost our children their lives and the lives of countless Iraqis. Top brass runs the war, most of who are ensconced safely in Washington; the others are career ticket punchers, not effective combat leaders. The people on the ground loath the people who lead in a chopper two thousand feet in the air, while grunts on the ground take the heat and lose their lives. We should have been doing targeted operations and continued negotiations with community leaders. Unfortunately, that is beyond the thinking process of our leaders. The morons in the White House issued the orders for the attack. Marine intelligence officers have been warned as well, if troop levels are significantly down in the reconstruction phase as planned, insurgents will reconstitute their forces to kill again, causing more causalities, battering the just-trained and untested Iraqi security forces, and intimidating local populations into shunning the January 30 elections. Of course, the brass at the top and the White House ignore this assessment, because it comes from combat managers on the ground.  What could they conceivably know?  They do not know the trooper’s worst nightmare is fighting un-uniformed guerrillas in urban combat, and house-to-house in their backyard. No one ever told George all war is murder. That is why you work so hard to avoid it.

 

Just as we predicted, the Bush neocons have started to talk about short-term borrowing to help finance its plan to add personal retirement accounts to Social Security. That would be $2 trillion in financing, which will be used to keep Wall Street in profits, and to keep the stock market from collapsing. What is short-term financing will certainly become long-term debt. The White House Council of Economic Advisors found that tapping the bond markets to pay for private accounts, because Social Security was broke, would increase the nation's debt to GDP ratio by 23.6% by 2036. We believe that number will be 50% higher, or between $5 to $10 trillion. $2 trillion would only be for the next five years. There idea is to inflate and pay it off with cheaper dollars, but they do not tell you that. Democrats have pledged to protect Social Security from privatization and they are right. Just look at the news. Everyday there is a new scandal on Wall Street. Millions are stolen, the fines go into the pocket of the government, and the investors get screwed. Bankers get richer, government gets more fascistic and above all, no one goes to jail. The bonds for financing will never be repaid they will be rolled-over forever. Just in Bush’s second term, this will add $2 trillion to the budget deficit. Leave the system the way it is and really fund it with tax revenues. We call it more lies and insanity.

 

            As we mentioned last week, bureaucrats in California want a tax, based on how much motorists drive. That is because California’s tax base is being destroyed and has been in that mode 15 years. It is not only happening in California, it is happening worldwide. Germany is preparing to do something similar, but no matter how you cut it, more taxation will result. It probably will get passed. Any state that would vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger has to have its head screwed on backwards. Of course, if you were taxing mileage, drivers would continue to buy gas-guzzlers because gas would be much cheaper. Of course, every car owner would have to pay for a tracking device.

 

New Council on Foreign Relations members includes Andrea Mitchell, the wife of CFR member Sir Alan Greenspan. Another new member is Jack Valenti, chief lobbyist for the motion picture industry.

 

Refinancing is the trap. In many large metro areas, mortgages foreclosure sales are up over 50% from 2001. Since 1998, homeowners have waked away from $565 billion in cash-out mortgages, or an average of $27,000 per refinancing. Homes are being used like credit cards. Commercial banks currently hold $415 billion in home equity credit lines, up 41% in the last year. Thirty-five percent of refinancings were for home improvements, 26% paid off debt and 16% spent the money on consumer purchases. In 2003, mortgage debt grew to $6.9 billion, an increase of 9.9% from 2002. Home equity grew, but more slowly, rising 6.1% to $8.4 trillion. An even larger problem, are those who are allowed to refinance with “sub-prime” mortgages, which carry rates of 5/8 to 7/8% higher than conventional loans. Over the next four years, there will be mountains of foreclosures and much lower house prices.

 

** Receive an Introductory Copy of the IF -- See  Below **

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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

            The second batch of Chinese 2005 New Years Celebration Gold Bars have just gone on sale and are being snapped up. Ranging from 50 to 1,000 grams, the gold bars all selling at 128 yuan per gram, an increase of three yuan compared with the first batch of bars that sold out quickly just a week ago. That was 300 kilograms of gold bars. If demand persists, another 300-kilo batch will be minted.

 

            In the first quarter of 2004, profits from the 300-member China Gold Association totaled more than $245 million, a jump of 35% year-to-year.

 

            Gold output was 149 tons during this period, an increase of 7%. Total gold demand in 2004 is expected to rise to 220 tons from 207 tons last year.

 

            In spite, of moving higher early in the week the PPT and the Fed are still trying to lean on gold, as commodity prices hit 23-year highs. Gold in euros backed off from 344 to 340 again as central banks intervened.

 

            Physical gold demand is growing in leaps and bounds as production continues to fall. The gold cartel comes under more and more buying pressures as each day passes. Premiums in India are very strong. The shorts, mainly the commercials, are in a losing spot waiting for a correction that never comes. The trend is our friend and time is on or side.

 

            The US Mint has sold 456,500 ounces of Gold Eagle bullion coins this year, versus 484,500 last year. Investors have put just $396 million into gold mutual funds this year, less than 1% of the $139 billion that was poured into stock funds. International income funds, which invest in foreign bonds, have taken in an estimated $2.4 billion this year. Most gold has been purchased in jewelry form throughout the world, the rich put gold bullion away and the average American is buying numismatic coins and some gold and silver shares. Gold share indexes have been more or less flat this year and exploration stocks are off 50 to 80%. This tells us the gold bull market is in its infancy. After 45 years in this specialty, we know that you buy them when nobody wants them. It is only a matter of time before gold explodes and those who buy gold related assets at these levels are still buying at the bottom.

 

            On 12/6/04, China’s heaviest gold coins will go on sale and the issuer is confident the Chinese passion for the metal will ensure the 27 pieces worth more than $216,867 each will be sold, especially after 1.985 tons of gold bullion was sold out within a week. These are 10-Kilo coins. Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co. sold out its issue of ‘Year of the Rooster’ coins. The 10 kg coins, which are 99.99% pure, have a dragon, a traditional Chinese symbol that represents power and royalty. The Chinese have a passion for gold and the current high property prices and bearish stock market will help gold glimmer even more as a safe haven to hedge against inflation.

 

The Indian gold demand by weight in the third quarter was 16% higher than the third quarter of 2003. That was in the face of a 10% higher rupee. India is booming and thus, so are gold sales.

 

We find it unconscionable and criminal that none of the financial media will report that ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) in gold are derivatives and that they do not have to meet London Good Delivery status nor can the bullion’s presence in London vaults be verified by audit.

 

We have another Exchange Traded Fund, ETF, the iShares Comex Gold Trust. It is listed on AMEX with the symbol IAU. The Bank of NY is trustee and it is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. It is a commodity pool. Bank of NY was at the core of a massive Russian money-laundering scheme and no one went to jail. We would not touch this with a barge pole.

 

** Receive an Introductory Copy of the IF -- See  Below **

 

More for subscribers.... 

 

SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $129.95 U. S. Funds. 

             Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card $99.95 for a one-year subscription. Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. Correspondence to Bob Chapman international_forecaster@yahoo.com, or for subscription information IF_distctr@yahoo.com

 

 

Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.

 


-- Posted Thursday, 9 December 2004 | Digg This Article



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