-- Posted Sunday, 14 May 2006 | Digg This Article
The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster. For the full 33 page issue, please see subscription information below.
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
MAY 2006 (#2) Vol. 10 No. 5-2
P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518
An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.
Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman
E-mail Address
International_forecaster@yahoo.com
CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE
www.theinternationalforecaster.com
RADIO APPEARANCES:
If you would like to access my recent interview and future interviews on GoldSeekRadio please go to the following sites:
The Webpage: http://www.radio.goldseek.com/
The Realaudio link: http://www.radio.goldseek.com/shows/18.02.2006/broadband.rm
The Mp3 link: http://www.radio.goldseek.com/shows/18.02.2006/chapmanchan.mp3
Latest radio program was just posted
You might want to listen to it:
http://radio.goldseek.com/
US MARKETS
For some years there has been an anti-Islamic crusade by the US and Britain. Presently it’s the Iran crisis driven by Anglo-American interests. This state of affairs has been exacerbated by total impotence of politicians in England and the US. They simply don’t have the courage to fight and risk their careers for their country and humanity. Many are being blackmailed, and many more are simply bought out.
The moves against Iran are to be a fulfillment of the Samuel Huntington-Bernard Lewis epic of the “Clash of Civilizations”, which is nothing more than a replay of the crusades. If you remember the Crusades were followed by the Dark Age of disease and perpetual war. An attack against Iran will precipitate world war in which 50% of the human race will die. Such a war would wipe out sovereign nation states and lead the way to a globalized dictatorship by Illuminists throughout the world.
Thus, Iran, Iraq, China, Russia and Venezuela are not the problems; free trade and globalization are the problems.
Globalization is geared to collapse the current world economy, by creating a petroleum crisis that will upset economies throughout the world. The result will be as well the dethroning of the dollar as the world reserve currency. That has been in motion for the past six years and will come to fruition shortly. The free trade doctrine has allowed Illuminist interests to loot and dominate existing nominally sovereign governments in a way reminiscent of the 12th and 13th Centuries. A collapse of the financial system will destroy many existing governments, perhaps all, leaving these elitists world control.
People have great difficulty understanding why things happen the way they do. Not having been immersed in history they do not understand what part is played behind the scenes and the existential nature of the thinking process. Thus, there is no Iran crisis. It is something that has been illogically manufactured to fit into the future plans for world domination.
Things are never the way they seem to be. An example is the illegal alien problem. Our borders were left virtually wide open so big business elites could employ slave labor and drive down the US wage structure as they attempted to raise that of the third world to make everyone equal.
In 1980 Henry Kissinger told Mexico, you will open your country for international investment. First in corporations, then in banking and finally in the re-privatization of the oil industry. The corporate buy-ins were easy. The banking buy-ins began ten years ago after the Mexican financial collapse, and now oil is next.
The Republicans on the House International Relations Committee quietly have proposed to link amnesty with the opening of Pemex for foreign investment. The next Mexican president probably will be Lopez Obrador and we do not see him going along with the program. Pemex is Mexico’s cash cow from which Mexico’s corporate elites live off of and they don’t want to share their corruption with other international elitists. Corrupt Mexican’s spirit their money out of the country to tax havens and little gets invested into Mexico. Due to the lack of jobs and opportunity Mexicans illegally cross our border to work and by American standards are slave laborers and this is just what American corporate elitists want. Propaganda is promoted by HBO Latino, Clear Channel News Corp., which wants to take over Univision, and it goes on and on. This is to condition Americans to accept amnesty so corporate America can fatten the bottom line and so that we can amalgamate the US, Mexico and Canada in preparation for world government. That is really what this is all about and Americans are clueless.
We are surrounded by a sea of liquidity. That is 15 years of manufacturing money and credit to stave off financial calamity. That has been aided by the use of derivatives - a plus $300 trillion market. As a result of lax monetary control and total lack of regulatory control over derivatives, what has developed is a global market for non-performing loans. There have been three dozen major sales over the past two years by European lenders and focus has shifted to China as well...
GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALADIUM AND DIAMONDS
The central banks creators of fiat currencies have made one of their stupidest mistakes ever trying to buy time. That is by eliminating M3. What they did was expedite the upward moves in gold and silver. Granted both were ready to move higher anyway, but the criminals that they are they had to do what they wanted to do. Ever since the announcement last fall that M3 was to be terminated, gold and silver have been on a tear. The result is the paper suppression of the gold market is finally and mercifully coming to an end. The elitists have finally screwed themselves. The idiots at the Fed made it obvious what their intentions really are and that is to flood the world with money and credit. This has made the dollar extremely vulnerable because foreign holders know that the dollar will be entering a period of more rapid debasement. That too was borne out by the commentary by the G7 and how the IMF would solve the problem of the dollar that has to fall. That is a bit of theatrics because the IMF is incapable of solving anything and sophisticated investors know that. Thus it’s bail out time. This has made the dollar extra extremely vulnerable. The gold market spotted this month’s ago and physical buying has continued to overwhelm market.
We have for months seen higher oil prices and that means oil producers are loaded with dollars. They see what is going on and they load up with gold as well. Then comes the Dubai Ports deal and they have even more incentive to buy gold. They and the Chinese are sellers of US securities and buyers of gold. Who wants to have a dollar denominated security with a falling dollar?
We ask how could the CFTC allow the silver dealers to manipulate the price of silver unless on orders of the US government? How could they allow a dealer short of 700 million ounces of silver, which is greater than the total world mine production? This is why we see $30.00 silver in our immediate future. It is so easy to figure out – it is incredible. You should also find it of interest that the commercials, who are the concentrated shorts have not been net long for 20 years. Thus, we see the basis for another silver run and it’s upon us.
As we predicted some time ago, Warren Buffett sold or lent his silver to Barclay’s for its Silver ETF. The overhand is gone and it’s being dispersed every day to buyers all over the world. This is very bullish for silver. We wonder what Barclay’s will do when they run out?
Warren Buffett said his silver had been sold, but gave no details. That is where the 130 million ounces went – to Barclay’s, just as we said it did.
Buffett of course tried to take down commodities, but he well knows we are in a 15-year bull market, we are only five years into it and, that we’ll probably see another doubling in commodity prices over the next five years, unless we are beset by depression, which is a distinct possibility.
We are sure the SEC overruled the Silver Users Association in approving the Silver ETF ISilver Shares trust for trading on the AMEX because Barclay’s told them they had Buffett’s 130 million ounces. You read what is going to happen, here, before it happens.
Van Eck Associates has filed a registration statement with the SEC for approval of the first US ETF that would focus on gold and silver mining company stocks. The object of Market Victors ETF Trust is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners Index. Those would be companies with a capitalization of $100 million that have traded on an average daily volume of at least 50,000 shares over the past six months. The Index includes 43 gold and silver companies. Van Eck proposes to charge a total net annual fund operating expense of 0.55%.
First came Ben Bernanke and then came the elimination of M3 that was followed by a 45% increase in gold prices. The Fed Chairman is the antithesis of sound money. From here on out no matter what other markets do gold and silver have to go higher.
Monday was another day of desperation for the gold and silver shorts and the suppression cartel. They got gold and silver down, but it was nothing to write home about. Gold fell $5.00 to $677.40 and silver fell as well 12 cents, down to $13.78. Gold is about to explode through $700 and silver through $15.00 and the media has a few stories regarding this historic bull market, and that is it. Talk about managed news. We must say that now the longer they don’t report what is going on in gold and silver and commodities, the better. The public still isn’t in the market and neither are many professionals. On weakness at $670 the open interest in gold finally rose 4566 contracts to 357,941, but silver contracts fell another 1119 to 110,685. Gold was bullish and silver is mega-bullish. Gold is up ten of the last 11 days and we expect gold will blow through $700 this week. Newsletter writers and pros refuse to believe the short position in both metals and take advantage of it. 85% of letter writers still have 65% of gold and silver related asset buyers either in cash or short – what morons. That’s from $520 to $8.80. They should be skinned alive. There are only five publications long that we know of.
Tocom was open for the first time since last Tuesday, and open interest fell the equivalent of 855 Comex lots.
We have seen seven headlines in business sections proclaiming a correction on the bubble in gold and silver, which daily climb a wall of worry. These pundits are all dumb or don’t want to lose their jobs. We have seen this for 47 years. We are the experts – we are the ones for years who have been correct, not these media whores.
AngloGold Ashanti, operators of the Geita Gold Mine reports a decline in production.
Harmony’s gold production fell by 14% for the first quarter.
Barrick says a container used to hoist ore up the main shaft at South Africa’s South Deep Mine collapsed and it will take weeks to repair the damage.
Total gold production could fall to 2,000 tons a year in the year’s ahead and these problems don’t help. That makes being short either gold or silver very risky.
On Monday afternoon, Barclay’s representative was on CNBC and said gold was in a bubble and would fall. Just more sour grapes as the prices of gold moves higher. Barclay’s is very anti-anti-gold and silver in spite of owning the Silver ETF.
We read lots of newsletters and one of the writers who got his subscribers out of gold at $520 and recommended shorting now tells us gold is in a speculative blow-off pattern where its been for some time. Doesn’t this guy get it. Doesn’t he know he can throw in the towel and admit he was wrong – we guess not. Then he tells us the Tocom is short 179,000 contracts and that position is as unchanged as his is. How do you get so dumb or egotistical?
Tuesday was a precious day in the gold market. We told you there would be days like this. Volatility and moves of $20 and $50 and even $100. Those days are here again. Gold rose $22.30 to $699.70 and silver was up $0.71 to $14.49. The access market after the close showed gold up another dollar and silver ten cents higher. The suppression cartel we are sure is preparing another attack, but it will end like all the others of the past six months in failure. You cannot shove gold down and cover your shorts at the same time. Better yet, there are few gold bulls out there. They have sold out or been sold out. Today is as good as it gets, without a major event of some kind. The shorts in both silver and gold are now losing billions of dollars. Then add in those derivatives writers including gold producers who wrote calls and sold them and you have a putrid kettle of fish. It just warms our hearts to see Barrick and Anglo go into the tank. Barrick has to be offside over $7 billion on their hedges. Another hedger, Newcrest, could go under. If they do those counter parties in their hedge book are royally screwed. Those who leased the central bank gold cannot buy it back. They have to pay in dollars if they can. Then when the citizens of these different countries whose gold was stolen realize what has transpired, they will hang the people in their central banks responsible and then the whole conspiracy will collapse.
Gold open interest fell again 855 contracts to 357,086, while silver open interest fell 2429 contracts to 108,056 in our short driven gold and silver markets.
We might add that due to production to usage shortfalls in platinum and the takeover in Zimbabwe of production by the government, platinum rose $41 to $1229 and palladium rose $17 to $388. Copper raced ahead again $0.09 to $3.70. We see $6 to $7 in copper’s future.
Tocom gold open interest rose 11.7 tons or 3,750 Comex lots. Their shorts reduced their positions by 7,174 contracts to a total of 171,690 contracts. They have a long way to go to reach zero, some 24-business days at this high volume.
The ECB reported a gold sale of 916 million euros last week or 59.05 tons. Four banks were sellers, 57 tons of this sale was announced on March 31st, which had not previously showed up in accounts. It seems the central banks are reluctant to sell. China holds 19.29 million ounces of gold, unchanged from the fourth quarter and China is being urged to quadruple its gold holdings.
We have to laugh when we are told by companies such as Barclay’s that the end of the yen carry-trade is going to effect gold and silver. That is ridiculous. What it is going to effect is the stock and bond markets and real estate.
One of the reasons rising gold and silver prices are a lock is that Fed Chairman Bernanke is going to allow inflation to rise so that real growth does not deteriorate too badly. His lifetime body of work indicates he is so afraid of economic recession evolving into debt deflation, that he desires and will foster some degree of inflation in the misguided belief that the inflation will prevent a debt reckoning. What he forgets is our debtors, particularly foreigners such as China, are not willing to allow inflation to rise further and the dollar as a result to fall further. The new breed of monetarism began in the 1980s as a branch of Keynesianism and it continues on today. The Fed today is still a year or more behind the curve and they obviously have no intention of catching up. People are not going to believe their bogus statistics forever either. Just as a fresh example of Mickey Mousing, the figures the BLS said compensation per hour in the manufacturing sector rose at a 2.4% annual rate in the first quarter, yet their initial figures which is what everyone looks at, not the revisions, was reported up only 1.5%. We eventually found out unit labor costs fell 1.7%, not 2.6% as originally reported. As each day passes government and the Fed lose more and more credibility.
The Eurosystem’s reserves of gold and gold receivables fell by 916 million euros to 179.61 billion this past week. Foreign currency reserves increased 900 million euros. Cash in circulation rose 3.9 billion euros to 572.7 billion.
A persistent slide in the dollar has got to underpin the gold market just as the massive short positions have. In addition, there is persistent talk of the Chinese raising gold reserves by some 600 tons to 2,500 tons. Oil and gasoline are holding at high levels as inflation roars on with no end in sight. The UN knows the Security Council will not pass sanctions on Iran. If you remember we predicted this long ago. Thus, the UN is going to delay addressing the Iranian situation by sending Iran a list of questions on compliance and that pushes a sanction’s vote into the next century. Again gold and silver are not going down in any meaningful way anytime soon. We still see commodity prices doubling from May 1st as they catch up with inflation and demand. The elitists are terrified because they have lost control of everything. Remember, you read it here first. This is the financial journey of a lifetime.
Silver investment demand particularly in physical coins and bullion is raging and we see no end in sight. Even if the metal falters gold’s strength will carry it higher. IShares holdings rose to 53.9 million ounces on Tuesday and that means the implied silver demand forecast at 60 million ounces is about to be seen in the first two weeks of trading. It won’t take long at this rate to move through 130 million ounces. How bullish can it get?...
SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $129.95 U.S. Funds.
Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT to the International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges. Provide us with your card number and expiration date. We will charge your card US$129.95 for a one-year subscription. Note: We publish twice a month by surface mail or 3-4 times a month by E-mail. international_forecaster@yahoo.com
Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.
