-- Posted Wednesday, 23 August 2006 | Digg This Article
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An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.
Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman
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The existing level of debt as well precludes any kind of an easy recovery. These debts cannot be paid and they increase exponentially month by month. This debt structure began on 8/15/71, and is in the process of imploding. Itís only a question of when. The final blow was the active pursuit and implementation of free trade and globalization in the 1980s. The results of those efforts are now manifesting themselves. Now you can fit the pieces together like a mosaic.
As a result, the Federal Reserve System is bankrupt and so are most of the rest of the worldís central banks. It is all fiat paper. That means eventually your currencies will almost all be worthless. That is why it is so important that your assets be denominated in gold once the system collapses. You issue one new gold backed dollar for each 10 or 20 or 100 outstanding, you then drop interest rates and make credit available by the US Treasury.
The government and business then move forward with large-scale infrastructure projects. You impose tariffs; build up industry and the development of industry. All visitors, legal and illegal, would be asked to leave unless they were tourists and there wonít be many of them. Currency is only paper; it is not real - it is really worth nothing. As soon as the financial system is functioning, you allow private banks and government to eventually phase out of the lending system. The countryís finances would be run by the US Treasury. There would be no Federal Reserve or anything privately-owned like it. In this manner we can return to a higher standard of living and the continued development of our culture. We as a nation can use our creativity to create a better life. Above all, remember, he who has the gold makes the rules...
Where is the market headed? For openers itís weaker than it was in October 1987, when interest rates were somewhat higher. Market deterioration began in May this year and more aggressive leakage began in August as the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell 9-points to 40%. That is the third consecutive monthly reading below 50%, which puts the 3-month average at 44%. The advance bookings fell 14-points to 49%, its first venture under 50% in its 6th month history. That is deterioration and analysts agree, increasing their negative ratings from 24% to 41%. Finally the mantra of free trade isnít working so well. You can never have prosperity for all, especially when the playing field is not level. America is playing under a terrible handicap. It cannot compete with labor costs 75% to 90% below ours and we canít compete when countries devalue their currencies daily. We need fair trade and we are not getting it and our competitors have no intention of allowing fair trade.
Housing starts fell 3% in July and they are off 21% since peaking in January. Building permits fell 7% in July to the lowest level in four years. Staff is being cut but it has only begun. There is a six-month to one-year lead-time on housing. During that period the major layoffs begin. There is no question a fall in permits, construction and employment in construction, mortgage creation and in real estate sales and assessments, but that will be offset by the tremendous money and credit creation that has been going on for sometime. Those who look for deflation from real estate will be disappointed. Deflation will only come when you see money and credit begin to retract. In the meantime, we will have stagnation and inflation Ė stagflation and weíll see $4 trillion lost in real estate over the next four years. Somewhere along the way the Fed and the other central banks that are inflating will have to give up and allow the purging of their economies. In the meantime those in gold and silver related assets will protect their wealth and perhaps make a great deal of money.
As we have told you often, you cannot believe any of the statistics coming out of Washington because truth is something these sociopaths know little about. That goes for the employment figures. Over the past three months there has been a loss of jobs not a gain of several hundred thousand, but again that is being offset by the high flow of money and credit, increasing credit card debt and the record removal of home equity. Any market professional should be going on the defensive Ė this is injurious to the economy.
The economy is going to slow more sharply over the next three years than most any professionals realize. They simply donít understand what they are dealing with. They for the most part have never had a bad day in the markets. They figure the Fed can always ride to the rescue and they are in for a big surprise. What is really disturbing is Wall Street analysts and economists take official statistics at face value. When you are operating from an incorrect premise it is difficult to be right. Inflation is not the official 4.1% or 4.5%, it is 10.9% and most people on Wall Street know that, but they wonít go on record to that effect. We are going to slow down and itís going to get progressively worse and itís going to end in depression. Why do you think weíve had an inverted yield curve for nine-weeks? We previously, earlier in the year, had one for a month. For those who donít know, that is when the yield on the two-year Treasury note is higher than the year on the ten-year Treasury note, which is very abnormal. Itís caused by the Fed feeding too much liquidity into the short end of the market. This time it is not going to be different. There is going to be copious pain for everyone, even those who protect themselves in gold and silver assets. During the first two weeks of September the stock market will oblige you with your final chance to sell. Donít let that opportunity pass you by.
You have seen the MSBCI figures and they are borne out by the Conference Boardís leading economic indicators that have fallen at a 1.4% annualized pace in the past six months. In the past when they have turned down for six months straight, there has been a serious slowdown or recession. Rather than report on all the indicators weíll just say several are pointing in the same direction. A signpost Wall Street refuses to recognize. We see growth in GDP in the second half of next year even or a minus. Using your home as a piggybank will have come to an end. We have never gone into a correction when earnings and debt have been anything like they are today. Then there is the tide of liquidity, which is enormous. The correction will be deep and devastating. Eighty percent of our economy is service; our manufacturing capability has been and is being deliberately destroyed. Going out the other side of this terrible experience is going to be very difficult...
As we commented in an earlier issue for now interest rates have peaked and with an election pending and incumbents and Republicans in serious trouble, we do not expect there will be another rate hike until January. That gives inflation six months to have its way with the economy. That means the dollar and the stock market are headed lower and inflation, gold and silver are headed much higher. If rates were to be lowered after the election, the dollar would break 80 on the dollar index and fall to 50-55, which would under todayís leveraged conditions bring on financial chaos and gold higher than $1,700 an ounce and silver over $50 an ounce. Inflation would officially reach 10%. If that were to happen it would be suicidal. Incidentally, the dollar has already begun its descent and by election time will be testing 80 as gold should be testing $850. Again, rates will bring raging inflation and that action would have the Swiss franc testing $1.14, the euro $1.3666 and the pound $2.00. Now, mind you this does not factor in any untoward events. If the Fed leaves rates where they are for the next two years then you can expect progressively higher inflation and a progressively lower dollar - 80 will be broken to the downside. We believe that unchanged rates will be Bernankeís choice, as he will prefer a weak dollar to domestic recession and depression, he has just proven that.
Those of you who are in gold and silver and are out of the market and have dollar assets, sell them. Switch to assets denominated in Swiss francs and Canadian dollars. The gold and silver shares and numismatic gold coins are basing out here. Buy now as it will be your last best chance...
As the result of economic and monetary policies weíll have stagflation or depression for another seven years. The insiders are going to find out again that military Keynesianism does not work. That is why the Fed officially terminated M3. They want to hide the disintegrating US economy, and the implications for the dollar, by obscuring this significant measure of monetary inflation...
-- Posted Wednesday, 23 August 2006 | Digg This Article
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