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International Forecaster MidWeek Reading - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Thursday, 7 September 2006 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster.  For the full 31 page MidWeek Reading, please see subscription information below.

          THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

MID WEEK READING

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman

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International_forecaster@yahoo.com

 

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US MARKETS

 

          As all you readers know we believe the chance of America and the world going into depression is very good. If that becomes reality, the rest of the world is bound to follow. The boom in the world that was led by the US since WWII could be over. The downside began in the early 1960s, and it has been relentless ever since. The weakness caused by the stock market collapse in 2000, and what has had to be done monetarily since in the form of a housing bubble bought time, but sealed the fate of the US economy. There was a great opportunity in the early 1990s to purge the system and move on, but the power hungry elitists refused to do so and because of that today the world faces financial ruin.

 

            We have already seen a political and social splintering in relations throughout the world with the US. Blocks have formed such as Mercosur in South America, the Islamic world and China, Russia, Iran, India and Venezuela. American foreign policy, driven mainly by greed and arrogance, has been a disaster.

 

            The US, UK, Europe and Japan have all attempted to coordinate their monetary policies since 2001, the result of which has been the creation of massive amounts of money and credit to keep their economies from collapsing. Believe it or not, Japan, England and Europe have been staggering for years. Japan as a fascist government and the remainder as socialist governments. The housing bubble and all its reasons and manifestations has carried us for the past five years and now that bubble has broken and there will be no more bubbles, save a terror bubble, if such a horrible thing can exist.

 

            America, as the holder of the world’s reserve currency, has dominated the world since WWII and in the process, has misused that trust by accumulating massive public and private debt. It was based on a relentless pursuit of an ever-higher standard of living for all, unfortunately, based on a foundation of debt. While we have headed blindly toward bankruptcy, other nations such as Russia, India, China and Asia and South America have reaped a harvest of dollars and with the exception of Russia all were the recipients of the foolish largess of free trade and globalization. They are all rich in US dollars and as a result they are all about to lose 35% to 50% of their purchasing power. The exceptions to that are the citizens of India and the governments of Russia and Argentina. They have been large gold buyers as has been individuals in the Middle East.

 

            Even though they might think so, Japan has still never recovered. Their debt has been whittled down within their banking system from $1.3 trillion to $150 billion, but governmental debt has risen dramatically. They still have to take that final purge as so many other nations have too. They as well are almost entirely dependent on imports of energy and most minerals.

 

            Europe still hasn’t realized that socialism hasn’t solved their economic problems. If it weren’t for the German economy and its exports, the eurozone and the EU would be in serious shape. They too have been creating excess money and credit over the last 1-1/2 years, which has taken inflation to 3%.

 

            The US more than anyone else has taken just about everything to the limit. America will lead the world into depression. What surprises us is the length of time it has taken for this to happen and how strong the underlying economy remained for the past 35 years. That is in the process of coming to an end.

 

            In spite of their natural resources all of the world will pay a price. The abused and battered colossus of the West is crumbling, unable to continue to carry the weight of the world on its shoulders any longer. All nations are going to have to find a way to survive. They will all experience social turmoil and the possibility of wars and revolution. Just look at what the elitists are attempting in the Middle East. It is sheer madness, but the elitists believe they can keep their system going and war is a cover for economic failure.

 

            For 3-1/2 years via massive injections of liquidity, nations have been able to avoid the inevitable. In reality since 2000 we have been in a stage of stagnation – a false prosperity. The fingerprints of privately owned central banks are everywhere. They not only have supplied the liquidity, but they have manipulated every world market. They call it financial and economic management. The public doesn’t understand and probably never well, but there is a growing small minority that does understand the debauchment that is taking place and they have been acting to protect themselves for the past five years. They have done this by investing in gold and silver assets. The hand of manipulation has hung quite heavily on these two markets, but their suppression has been relatively unsuccessful. Gold has risen from $252 to $730 and silver from $3.58 to $15.00 in spite of these efforts. The longer these efforts continue the less affective they’ll be. This cabal is close to nearing the end of their gold and silver suppression. When you have such a phenomenon it forces these two metals into a position of a coiled spring. Everytime the pressure has to be released the prices jump up and follow their normal course. There is simply no permanent way of stopping their progression. In time this artifice is going to cause very violent moves to the upside in prices. Then finally investors will be attracted to both metals and they will begin to discover why gold and silver are doing what they are doing and why the possibilities for profit are so enormous. Remember in 1980, only 5% of the public was involved in the precious metals boom. If you were 25 in 1980 you might remember something about the markets of those days. 99% of 25 year olds won’t remember and those 25 year olds are now 50 and all those under 50 know little or nothing about gold and silver, including professionals. It is an arcane market to them. But, they will learn because they want to make profits. That is the process that is going on right now. The professionals are catching on along with professional money managers and hedge funds. The public will join us, as will the sold out bulls, after gold passes $850 an ounce, silver $50 an ounce. This is going to occur when other markets are falling and investors and the public are desperate for a return on the capital they have left. This is how the story is about to unfold. We have been dead right on 98% of our calls for the past 17 years and we know we are dead right on this one. This is the culmination of our life’s work.

 

            These markets are quiet and are forming a new base. Prices that have been stagnant, especially in gold and silver shares, but they are starting to again come to life. Over the past week we saw a reawakening, the beginning of another strong upward move. This is why we told you all summer to buy them when nobody wants them. That is how you achieve your greatest gains.

 

            The world as yet isn’t watching. Their investing attention is still on the stock market, bonds, wars in the Middle East and illegal immigration on our streets. We have phony bomb scares, hurricanes, murders and business and sex scandals to divert our attention away from rescuing our assets. Time is short. Soon corporate profits will fall, wages, unemployment and inflation will rise, the result of which will be falling stock, bond and real estate prices. People will be looking for a new home for their money. They will be looking for the next investment opportunity. That chance to protect their assets they will find lies in gold and silver related assets. Slowly they will realize the game is over. Only 5% need to come to that conclusion for gold and silver to reach historic heights. So few will make so much.

 

            The trigger has been pulled both on real estate and the stock market, which will end in one of the worst financial disasters in history. We will not even stop in a recession and we will simply fold into depression before anyone knows it. The recession has already begun. It began in June of 2005, and as pundits look back they will belatedly agree. This will be a lengthy depression. It will last 10 to 15 years and everyone will be affected even the elitist rich, most of whom we believe will meet an early demise. When the pubic finds out what has been done to them they will show little mercy in the shambles that they have been forced to live in. With the exception of those of you over 80 years old, none of you can for a second imagine how devastating a depression will be. A depression worse than the 1930s. In the 1930s people were law abiding and a homogenous Indo-European society with nowhere near the debt that exists today. Those were terrible trying times. This time it is going to be worse – much worse. Crime is already a major problem. We have innumable foreign wars and we have 30 million illegal aliens who run down our flag and run up foreign flags and demand amnesty as they break our laws. This is happening before depression, what will it be like during a depression - worse, much worse of course?

 

            This is what gold and silver are reflecting along with temporary inflation. Gold should already have passed $850 an ounce and silver $50 an ounce, and that presents you with the opportunity to purchase these assets at bargain basement prices, probably for the last time.

 

            As the inflationary spiral spins out of control it is up to us to try to pick the top or somewhere near the top of that bubble and cycle and to guide you into a survival mode. It is easy to buy, but it is very difficult to sell when everything looks so rosy. You fall in love with your investments as you gloat in your success. It is our job to awaken you from your reverie. That is not an enviable job, but someone has to do it. You do not want to give all those gains away. This is why you have to have the International Forecaster during the trying times to come.

 

            After the election economically and financially all hell will break loose. Sometime over the next two years the wars in the Middle East will widen. By 2008, economic activity will have slowed considerably and personal consumption will have fallen from 71% back to the norm of 64.5%. Gold and silver are way behind the curve due to manipulation and they won’t catch up until they reach $1,700 and $100 respectively. That is just a reflection of the inflation of the past 25 years. Based on previous market excesses, based on inflation only, gold should see $3,500 and silver $200 based solely on a conservative model. Both could go much higher. We won’t know what to do until we get there. Once there, the strategy changes and we’ll instruct you what to do next. The force propelling gold and silver now is liquidity borne inflation. Few are thinking recession and very few are thinking depression. Even those who have an understanding and see recession cannot conceive of the scenario I’ve just laid out. Gold and silver are not reflecting recession/depression and a flight to ultimate quality as yet. They will do that later. They are trying to reflect the end result of inflation and the debauchery of the dollar and almost all fiat paper currencies. We do not want to get ahead of ourselves – we want to take one step at a time in this process. Incidentally, do not let anyone get you off track and out of your most precious investments and do not attempt to trade this market. It is not worth it. Buy and hold - the trend is your friend. You only sell and re-buy when you have too. Changes have to be event driven. Do not let some coin dealer or some stockbroker get you out of these investments of a lifetime...

 

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

 

As Red Buttons used to say, “strange things are happening.” On Monday, silver hit $13.09 and closed in London at $13.00. Then, after about a half an hour, after London was closed, on one contract silver was taken down to $12.99. A few minutes later it moved back to $13.00. Then 28 straight contract sells took it to $12.89 before it up-ticked to $12.91 on the close.

 

            Yes, this should be exposed but it goes on every day and no once cares. The screen shots are there for all to see. The cabal couldn’t allow silver to finish over $13.00, so they painted the tape. The move over $12.50 was a breakout. A move over $13.00 is a major breakout. Such blatantly illegal actions are the norm and we frequently get letters complaining of such infractions. You have to look at the big picture. We are going to win, so don’t let the elitists bother you.

 

Demand for gold by jewelers and investors are far outstripping production. 18 of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed advised buying gold. September is stocking up time for 2,000 jewelers for the winter holidays...


-- Posted Thursday, 7 September 2006 | Digg This Article



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