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International Forecaster MidWeek Reading - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Wednesday, 30 May 2007 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster.  For the full 19 page MidWeek Reading, please see subscription information below.

WEDNESDAY, MIDWEEK, MAY 30, 2007

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

 

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman

E-mail Address

International_forecaster@yahoo.com

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Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or twice a week by E-mail. international_forecaster@yahoo.com

 

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US MARKETS

...

The financial frauds that run our system would have us believe that the torrent of money and credit they have created is going to save our monetary system. That will keep us afloat as the housing market, stock market and bond markets eventually disintegrate. We are approaching the stage in this sea of liquidity when a higher level of money and credit creation is needed to sustain even flat growth. That is borne out by recent M3 figures from 8 to 10 major nations, all of which officially are over 11%. The average is 13% to 15% plus private credit creation. We are now approaching 20% as earnings moderate, real wages fall and inflation unofficially exceeds 11%. GDP is under 2%, which denotes recession as M3 goes ballistic.

 

This is why in spite of dollar intervention by central banks the dollar on the USDX can only rally from 81.5 to 83 on the USDX, after billions have been spent propping it up. Any rally will fail. Someone has to tell us how the dollar can rally with world interest rates moving higher and US remaining static? This scenario guarantees a perpetually weaker dollar.

 

Recently Kuwait announced its removal of its peg to the US dollar. The fear here is that the rest of the Gulf oil producers will follow. For 2-1/2 years these oil kingdoms and hedge funds have essentially been the only buyers of US Treasury and Agency bonds and notes. A cessation of Gulf dollar denominated asset buying would collapse the dollar. This doesn’t have to be an abandonment of dollar assets. Just a cut in buying of 25% would be crippling. This is what we see as being underway. This dollar problem is also expediting movement of US transnational conglomerates offshore. They do not want dollar assets or cash flow because they know the dollar is in a state of collapse. That means more and more American jobs are and will be moved offshore. A weak and weakening dollar is bad for every American as it causes higher inflation, lower wages and the possibility of national bankruptcy. You must remember as we have said over and over, America’s major corporations are doing what they are doing deliberately. America is being deliberately gutted and abandoned and overrun by illegal foreigners to destroy its capabilities to survive economically, financially, socially and culturally. This isn’t just happening for profit, it is the deliberate destruction of our country to bring about a One World government.

 

We are already seeing capital flows slowing except for companies, investors and countries buying American companies just to launder their dollars.

 

Adding to the loss of veracity is our government’s official statistics that are the laughing stock of the financial world. Their arrogance and ineptness knows no bounds. How can we expect anyone to believe in our dollar or our economy?

 

The CFTC, SEC and NASD protect the major firms because these firms are operating in behalf of our government, which is rigging every market. Every pro in every financial center of the world knows this, but won’t say anything about it. They do not want to ruin a good thing. They are guaranteed profits. The SEC lets the major players on Wall Street run wild making billions of dollars every day.

 

There is absolutely no respect left for either George and the neocons, or our new Congress. Eighty percent of foreigners hate our government. They do not hate Americans; they hate our corporatist, fascists bullying murderous government. This is a government that has never seen a dictator it didn’t like. When it’s through using them they are cast aside.

 

Our government has systematically looted our citizens turning them into tax slaves since 1971. They have served them up the worst silent, subtle tax of all, inflation, and then they officially lie about it every day. How can a thinking American not be a skeptic?

 

We have had a fiat currency since August 15, 1971. Not only are we not on a gold standard, but they have been selling our gold. We don’t know if we have any, it hasn’t been audited since 1954. Every effort to audit is stopped by our bought and paid for Congress and Executive Branch. The system is designed so that the major product of our labor ends up in the elitists’ hands. They have even made it difficult to be bankrupt. Down the road we can see the re-imposition of debtors’ prison and indentured servitude.

 

Our economy is based on perpetual war for perpetual peace. Human sacrifice for economic gain. Only none of the elitists ever die in the conflicts, only the cannon fodder give up their lives because they have believed the elitists lies.

 

This is a government and rich elitist class that lives by crime. They are immune to our laws and day after day we see scandal after scandal envelope our society. A society based on fraud and deception.

 

We now live in a society where these white-collar criminals steal one-third of the fruits of our labor. Nothing is safe from them even our lives. There is no such thing as security left in America. Our lives have been stolen from us. Most of us just don’t know it yet. Our government intrudes in everything in our lives. They even spy on us by looking into our bank accounts, our credit, our personal history, where we go and what we do and who we associate with. Our lives are ruled by security goons and by the titans of Wall Street who control our government. It’s Morgan, Goldman, Citicorp and Lehman who give the orders the Fed and our government follows. This is why it is so easy to manipulate our markets. This is why there is a steady stream of CFR, Trilateral Bilderbergers going between Wall Street, banking, insurance, oil and corporate America to positions in our government. They simply own it and almost everyone in it. If you step out of line you are financially destroyed and if that doesn’t work they either put you in jail on trumped up charges, or eliminate you. It’s a giant racket run by criminals far more evil and dangerous than any Mafia. There is a revolving door in and out of corporate America and government. The same group of people controls it all.

 

The model of corporatist fascism most recently was adopted by Mussolini and then Hitler in their corporate fascist governments. It in fact is the Roman model, so successful for some 500 years. That was the prototype - this is a copy an afterthought. Nonetheless it is every bit as brutal and evil. Today government only exists to please the people and keep them in line. The elitists already control our government and all other major governments. We as semi-free citizens are living on borrowed time. It’s only a matter of time before Martial law is declared because of some event created by these monsters. You have to start thinking in terms of all aspects of survival and you have to start gathering things to protect yourself and your family from our government. If you do not you will pay dearly.

 

Two and one-half or more years ago dozens of Condo towers were conceived and put into construction and they are now approaching completion. Investors in cities like Miami who speculated on these units in the pre-construction stage, in hopes of turning a quick profit, are increasingly trying to break contracts, and even walking away from substantial deposits. This is just the first wave of more waves to follow. We are already seeing motivated sellers and lawyers are being inundated with calls from speculators hoping to avoid closing and taking delivery of their units. There are thousands of them all trying to get out the door simultaneously. Walk-a-ways are already losing from $100,000 to $500,000, rather than close on a deal from $1 to $1.8 million. This year and next some 20,000 condos will be completed. Unfortunately, condo prices have been falling and are down about 10% yoy. The same madness has afflicted Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, NYC and D.C. South Florida drew the most investors and will get hit hardest. Seventy percent of the sales were to speculators. Many speculators were from other countries in Latin America. The rich hiding their assets from their governments. Those who bought in 2003 are about even. Those who bought in 2004 and 2005 are losing money. Those who bought in 2006 have bigger problems. About 25% of units are presently up for sale. Condos are the most vulnerable in falling markets. They should fall some 40% before this is all over.

 

For the past nine months the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has traded between 4.43% and 4.90%. This is the result of stagflation, but professionals are now finally realizing what we have been saying for so long, and that is that the US Government Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are all lies. This was verified by the Fed last week. Thus, the market is going to demand real higher yields. Economic growth may be weak, but the creation of money and credit is climbing and already is between 15% and 20%. It doesn’t matter how weak the economy is if inflation is 11% plus and investors finally realize that the yields have to rise. If they don’t they won’t invest and rates will climb anyway. The Fed cannot lower rates to try to save the economy in this environment because if they do the dollar will collapse and that will drive real US interest rates higher anyway. Talk about being in a box and not having a way out. We believe rates currently at 4.86% could easily break through 4.9% to 5.15% soon.

 

The key factor in the coming higher yields is that foreign central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the central banks of China, India and Japan are raising rates. They are trying to suppress inflation, which is out of control growth or out of control debt and stock and real estate markets. The US yields simply cannot compete. They have to raise rates or the dollar falls.

 

The other major factor is that central banks and other foreign investors are trying to get out of dollars and dollar denominated assets. Central bank holdings of dollars has fallen from 72% of reserves six years ago to 64.75% recently. China is taking steps to diversify its assets as we have already seen and that means, more pressure on dollar assets such as Treasuries and Agency securities. China holds about $450 billion in US Treasuries and some of them could very well be sold into the market.

 

The third factor is inflation in the US, which we have already mentioned.

 

We believe bonds will soon break down again and the natural questions is what do you do? You invest in gold and silver exploration stocks. The large capitalization stocks from here on out will not perform anywhere near as well as exploration stocks. You invest in graded numismatic gold and silver coins and junk 90% bags. For those of you who want and need further diversification you buy Swiss franc government bonds. The yield is a low 1-1/4%, but you will preserve your capital and then some and have easy liquidity.

...

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALADIUM AND URANIUM

 

Despite the best efforts of the central banks the gold price is relentlessly moving higher. Yes, we had a correction but we believe it is over. The fundamentals are just overwhelming. We should see $700 broken again soon and then a move to $850. The dollar is about to test 80 on the USDX in the next down draft, probably due to higher official and real interest rates worldwide. The collapse in the subprime and ALT-A mortgages are about to be followed by the prices on the upper end of the price scale and that will threaten the collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) of which 65% are held by hedge funds. Once the dominos begin to fall the house comes down. The orgy of lending is over and the fiddler must now be paid. Our prediction of 3-1/2 years ago has unfortunately come true. In case you forgot we called the top of the real estate market two years ago and all the kings horses and all the kings can’t put it back together again. Sir Alan Greenspan planned, executed and encouraged this financial fiasco. He is now making mega millions a year by doing exactly what the Illuminists wanted him to do. He and his fellow elitists should be tarred and feathered and then drawn and quartered. What they fostered isn’t going to leave us anytime soon and it fits right in with the destruction of our economy.

 

Ultimately the dollar will be the key and it will collapse and that is when gold will really fly along with silver, and that will happen over the next year, so you do not have long to wait. It is super important that you get your gold and silver related assets now. You do not want to be left behind as the profit express pulls away.

 

When this hits all the problems will converge in an overwhelming manner. The coming tariffs on foreign goods and services, with China being the first in line is not politically expedient. It is a matter of survival for the American people. The Chinese, Japanese, Canadians, Mexicans and others have manipulated their currencies for years to take advantage of the US market and in the process have virtually destroyed it. Let the creditors sell their dollars. Let the dollar drop to 40 on the USDX and then we’ll declare bankruptcy and see how the world likes that. The sword has two edges. We have allowed the world to screw us for years and that game is now nearing its end.

 

We find it ludicrous that the World Gold Fantasy Council, which is lavishly funded by gold producers, but controlled by the Illuminists, when asked by the Financial Times of London if they have found any evidence that the gold price was being kept artificially low, they mumbled no, and had the audacity to add insult to injury by citing the work of GFMS, another Illuminist controlled outfit, and Virtual Metals, also controlled by the elitists to prove that no such thing was occurring. Both GFMS, and Virtual Metals clients are involved in the gold and silver manipulation. This is the way of the world, but the barbarians will soon be at the gates. This time we are the barbarians and we are taking no prisoners. We hope Washington hears us loud and clear.

 

The opening session of the Saigon Gold Trading Exchange saw 7,250 taels of gold equate to $5.8 million in trade.

 

Dubai gold sales rose 32% in April yoy.

 

First quarter demand in UAE rose 5.7% to 29.7 tons worth $741 million.

 

Abu Dhabi gold sales rose 10% in April yoy with value rising 17%.

 

The second quarter looks to be 30% higher in value.

 

 Early Tuesday was generally plus. The Dow was up 22, S&P +10 and Nasdaq up 25 Dow points. The FTSE was +42 Dow points, CAC -7. This is a strong week on releases the ADP Employment report, income and the BLS employment report. The 2-year treasury and the 10’s were 4.87%. The yen was -.14, the euro +.35 and the pound +.38. Oil was -$.082, gas -$0.02 and natural gas -$0.06. Gold was +$2.40, silver -$0.03 and copper +$0.03.

 

South African gold output fell 7.6% in the first quarter yoy. There was a 12.9% fall in the average grade, which is very large. Volume of ore processed was up 7.3%, but that wasn’t enough to offset the drop in grade. Capital investment rose 39% to 1.6 billion rand.

 

Tuesday saw gold have a decent day, closing up $1.80 at $656.70 and silver very strong, up $0.24 at $13.41. The September gold contract was up $2.00 at $663.40, silver up $0.22 at $13.22 and copper -$0.01. Gold was up $6.00 at the London p.m. fixing at $660.15. The reversal of the dollar off early. A.M. losses moderated the gain as the shares were softer. The yen was +.01 at 121.63, the euro -.0005 to $1.3448, the pound off .0021 to $1.9809 and the magical Canadian dollar up .58 to 93.16. Gold open interest fell 7,461 contracts to 415,722 with the June contract lost 29,055 contracts falling to 82,718. The open interest in gold is 5.52 times larger than total warehouse stocks. Comex silver open interest is 109,372 or 4.14 times larger than warehouse stocks. The commercial short in Comex gold is now larger than that of silver. Can you believe that Comex gold inventories are a mere 35,610 contracts? One day there will be big trouble. 

 

Three central banks sold 191 million euros of gold this past week, or 11.92 tons. Last week 17.5 tons were sold. The question is over the past nine weeks how much gold has the ECB itself sold? Over the past 11 weeks European central banks have sold about 141 tons of gold and gold has withstood the onslaught.

 

On Friday the big Tocom shorts increased their total net shorts by 5,006 contracts to 112,083 and Goldman increased their shorts by 1,233 to 25,093. In silver the same group reduced their net short by 82 to 5,784 contracts.

 

Monday Goldman reduced their shorts by 437 contracts to 24,656.

 

The XAU closed off .23 to 135.57 and the HUI lost .69 to 321.56. The Dow was up 14 to 13,521, S&P rose 22 and Nasdaq was +90 Dow points. The 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.90% and the 10’s were 4.89%. Oil dived $2.05 to $63.15, gas fell -$0.11 to $2.30 and natural gas was -$0.05 to $7.59.

 

Gold coin enterprises are cropping up all over India. The Gold Club of Chennai, Union Bank of India and ICIC Bank are all involved in their own projects. The Gold Club of Chennai recently released what it calls 24-carat gold coins in denominations of 1 gram to 10 grams. The gold can be cashed in at any of the Gold club showrooms.

...

SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $129.95 U.S. Funds.   

Make check payable to ROBERT CHAPMAN (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card US$129.95 for a one-year subscription.

Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders.

Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or twice a week by E-mail. international_forecaster@yahoo.com


-- Posted Wednesday, 30 May 2007 | Digg This Article



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