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International Forecaster MidWeek Reading - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Thursday, 13 September 2007 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

US MARKETS

 

The only thing that can make the stock market hold its own or go higher is massive liquidity and the machinations of the “Working Group on Financial Markets” and the Fed. Corporate earnings certainly won’t live up to expectations of growth of 13.5%. We see 4% to 8% probably around 5.5%. Hardest hit will be financial stocks and companies with involvement in the financial area. Retail stocks should get hit hard along with a continual thrashing of mortgage, real estate, homebuilders and supplier stocks. Over the next three years the fall in these areas will deeply affect business in the economy. Unemployment will rise and consumption will fall from 70% of GDP to 64.5%. This will not be a recession like all the others since 1960. This will turn into depression. The credit contraction you are seeing is only in its beginning stages. Consumption will fall off a cliff next year. You must keep in mind there are other possible factors in the wings. Wait until the dollar is selling at 75 on the USDX. All you will hear is how did this happen. The Fed from here on out will have its hands tied. The day of the hedge fund, derivatives and structured finance are over. Most of what they do will disappear over the next five years. Markets will fall and pension and retirement funds will get hit hard. The Republicans will lose badly in the next election as Democrats rule the House and Senate. Taxes will rise, we’ll finally get trade tariffs as the country digs itself out of the economic and financial hole it is in. The wars in the Middle East will end.

 

The subprime crisis will be with us for some time to come. The Fed, investment banks, bankers and many experts knew it was coming but there was a conspiracy of silence. Now the result is it’s out of control with no sign in sight that the credit crunch is any way near over. The elitists believe that by disbursing the risk all over the world the losses could be absorbed. Well they were wrong. As a result of this episode the central banks in the future will only get limited cooperation. The elitist’s reply is we had to keep the US economy out of recession, deflation and depression. If we didn’t do that then the world would have fallen into depression. This is their justification for defrauding investors worldwide. The Fed and the investment banks knew there would be disastrous fallout. Now they have a situation they cannot control and they have lost the world’s confidence.

 

GOLD, SILVER

 

...We also thought we might give non-insider large specs a brief reminder about how to best carry out their current mission:  

 

First, to protect against yen hits on gold and carry trade unwinding due to a plummeting dollar, stock index puts and yen calls for a term of six months or more are recommended.  These protective derivatives should not be purchased using leverage as they have leverage already built into them, so don't make them into a margin-call-generating liability.  The longer term will prevent a short-term manipulation by the cartel from pushing you out of your protective positions, especially if those positions are not leveraged or subject to margin calls as just recommended.  Having these longer-term, protective derivative positions is also likely to prove to be a profitable move in any case, and there should be many good opportunities to move out of these positions in the near future.  The current rally is likely to hurt the dollar and the Dow as traders start to view gold as a profitable venture, start to realize just how desperate the condition of our financial system really is, and move their money accordingly.  This could well make the current venture doubly profitable!  Obviously, if the cartel causes the stock markets to crash by strengthening the yen to hit gold, or the markets crash for any one of a myriad of reasons due to the various ongoing debacles, and you own a significant number of these protective derivatives, you can simply thank the cartel for the billions in profits, cover your shortfalls, and continue to buy physical gold by the truckload!  At the very least, you will have neutralized the cartel's new weapon, which is now a nuclear option in any case, as such a manipulation could backfire and crash markets beyond the point of no return.  The cartel is likely to back off when they see that their unscrupulous manipulation is going to be counterproductive.  And if the Dow and the Dollar move up, which we can assure you will be short-lived under the current scenario, there will be plenty of time left on the derivatives to wait for a correction or a pullback.

 

Second, never start a rally by taking on large amounts of gold futures too quickly.  Each rally should be launched when factors such as economic news or seasonal factors are very bullish, with an especially bullish event being the trigger, so now is the perfect time.  The current fall rally has now started in earnest and fundamentals could not be better as seasonal and investment demand are now heating up, gold supply is rapidly dwindling on an ongoing basis, de-hedging by producers is accelerating, short positions in gold futures are at stunningly low levels, gold lease rates are higher than in previous rallies and a potential Fed funds rate cut is in the offing on September 18.  Any rally should be commenced by heavily purchasing PM stocks, which must be supported throughout the rally in order to draw the attention of traders to these easily purchased and highly leveraged assets.  Gold is always more bullish when the stocks lead off than when gold or gold futures lead off.  When the cartel starts to pound the PM stocks in response, that is when you guide your battleships into the physical gold pits and open up with your 16-inch guns, firing a full broadside.  That will send the cartel scrambling.  If you are successful in the physical pits, then and only then should you add to your PM futures positions.       One of the main problems in sustaining a PM rally is that the gold bulls get too greedy and take out too great of an overall futures position too early and with too much leverage in order to maximize profits, and that is their downfall.  When the cartel puts a really large hit on gold, the bulls get so far behind the eight-ball so quickly that they are forced out of their futures positions in order to prevent their implosion.  We have seen this happen over and over again, ad nauseam, over the past year.  One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results each time.

 

THIRD:  THE BATTLE FOR GOLD CAN ONLY BE WON IN THE PHYSICAL GOLD PITS AND THAT IS WHERE MUCH OF YOUR LIQUIDITY SHOULD GO.  DO NOT TRY TO GO TOE TO TOE WITH THE CARTEL IN THE FUTURES MARKET UNLESS YOU ARE DOMINATING IN THE PHYSICAL MARKET!  PHYSICAL GOLD CANNOT BE CREATED OUT OF THIN AIR THE WAY GOLD FUTURES CAN.  THE CARTEL HAS MORE MONEY THAN YOU DO BECAUSE THEY CAN REPURCHASE, MONETIZE AND PRINT WHATEVER THEY NEED.  THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT PHYSICAL GOLD IS THEIR GREATEST VULNERABILITY!  THEIR EVER-DECLINING LACK OF AVAILABLE PHYSCIAL GOLD IS THEIR ACHILLES HEEL!

 

We firmly believe that if the large specs could get their act together as outlined above, they could easily defeat the gold-depleted cartel, especially if they have some help from deep pockets like Russia, China and India.  Let's take these bums out!

 

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman

E-mail Address

International_forecaster@yahoo.com

CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE

www.theinternationalforecaster.com


-- Posted Thursday, 13 September 2007 | Digg This Article



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