...

          As this TARP fraud transpired, the Federal Reserve shelled out over 9 trillion in liquidity to their cronies, thus rapidly debasing our currency with total impunity, and the Fed may even be floating unauthorized treasury bonds to absorb toxic waste and to fund bailouts.  The Fed's Board of Governors are now the gods of high finance, deciding which companies will survive and which will get vaporized.  (Hint:  Survivors are Illuminist owned or controlled companies).

          The Fed's member banks continue to hoard their reserves to destroy the small businesses that compete with Illuminist transnational conglomerates, while they use taxpayer largesse, extorted via threats of martial law and PPT-orchestrated stock market crashes, to buy out the competition which has been weakened by the hoarding of loan money.  Dividends were paid to stockholders of insolvent companies which have no business doling out nonexistent profits.  These miscreants even had the unmitigated gall to use bailout money to fund the payment of salaries and bonuses to executives who have intentionally burned their once-profitable companies to the ground to pave the way for the consolidation, amalgamation and nationalization of the finance, insurance and auto industries that will form the core of the planned corporatist, fascist police state that now exists in fact, if not yet in name.  The corruption is ongoing, pervasive and arrogant, and is nothing less than disgusting.  This state of affairs is going to get much worse unless you stop them -- one way, or the other.  

          You will certainly not get a new start from Fascist Commie Comrade Obama and the new CCCP (Clintonite Cabinet of Con-artists and Parasites) that is composed of the same slugs who set up the economic scenario that has ruined our country -- intentionally -- to pave the way for a one world police state.  When Caligula leaves the White House, he will be replaced by Nero who will play his Keynesian FDR fiddle while Rome burns to the ground and we are hyperinflated into oblivion.  No, he won't tax the poor.  Then what, we ask, is inflation if not a stealth tax?  He has told us we must spend, spend, spend immediately to avoid any further meltdown of the system.  We have news for you Obama:  the system has already burned down.  Throwing money down these rat-holes will ignite inflation, which is the worst kind of tax on the poor.   The rich will get their loopholes while the poor shell out twenty dollar bills for a loaf of bread.  Has this man read any history, or is he just another ignorant baboon like the one leaving the White House?  The use of multi-billion dollar bailouts to address multi-trillion dollar problems is like trying to bail out the Titanic with a shot glass.  What else do you call over a million jobs lost over two months and the worst unemployment rates in six decades? Some of these idiots have yet to even acknowledge that we are in recession!  That must be because, hey, our economy is strong and resilient (Caligula), and the housing crisis and credit-crunch will moderate over time (Buck-Busting Ben), as we continue to support a strong dollar policy (Hanky-Panky) while the Fed cuts to zero interest and spikes the money supply with 9 trillion dollars.  Who can possibly believe a single word that issues forth from the mouths of these pathological liars and ignorant baboons who are, God help us, in charge of our political, foreign and economic affairs?  And people wonder why we have a crisis of confidence?

          If all the current debacles that are taking place -- in yo' face -- are not enough to convince you to buy gold, silver and their related shares, then may we be the first to welcome you to the Royal Order of Ignorant Baboons, with Caligula presiding as Grand Pooh-Bah and Baboon-in-Chief.

...

We get many requests for projections on gold for the year 2009. This is the way we see it - a minimum of $1,200 and the possibility of $2,000. The dollar will revisit 71.11 on the USDX and break that level to the downside, perhaps to 60 or 65. We believe $80.00 a barrel is a reasonable price for oil. House prices will fall 15% to 20% more and the 10-year Treasury note should reach 4%.

Vacancy rates in office buildings exceed 10% in virtually every major city in the country and are rising rapidly, a sign of economic distress that could lead to yet another wave of problems for troubled lenders.

Hardest hit will be Los Angeles and New York City as rental income declines so do property values. This year will be the worst year since 1991-92. Many properties will have to be refinanced this year, many owners won’t be able to get loans from banks, which are hoarding funds in what has now been diagnosed as a bogus credit crisis. Defaults will abound. That means more problems for investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds and others. These are the illiquid assets we have so often spoken about. Matters are further complicated by the securitization of these commercial properties. In part, these are the same kind of problems we just witnessed in residential real estate; only the numbers are much larger.

Already the industry lobbyists are seeking a taxpayer bailout of the industry citing the cumulative effect such default will put on the financial sectors. This is another ticking time bomb for banks, which have already received hundreds of billions of dollars in capital and other assistance from the federal government. Not only are the five big legacy banks buried in commercial real estate, but so are regional banks. The proportion of their lending in the sector has doubled in the last six years. Worse yet, in 2006-08, nearly 60% of commercial property loans were turned into securities. Banks are now no better off then homeowners. There is little market for these securities. In one year the bottom has fallen out of the market. The recession is so widespread that every market will be affected. As a result in NYC and Los Angeles, rates of occupancy are off 10% and in Tampa, Fl they are off 20%. The outlook for Chicago in 2009 is 17% and in Dallas 19%.

Rents effectively have started to fall and are expected to decline 30% or more across the country from recent highs.

Another problem not generally known is that owners, who have projected ever-rising rents typically, pay only interest on the loans of 5, 7 or 10 years and refinance the big principal payments necessary when the loans come due. If the lenders do not roll the loans they end up with the properties and the owners are left with nothing.

Most troubled have been hotels, shopping centers and heavily leveraged mall operators, like General Growth Properties and Centro. They have to sell assets and there are few buyers. We see no relief. The Fed and Treasury are generally lending to the banks not the borrowers. Besides, we believe it is part of the plan to have the banks take over commercial real estate.

Foreclosures are looming on $400 billion of commercial real estate and the Real Estate Round Table has pleaded with our Treasury to include them in a new $200 billion bailout. Yet we see no bailout of the average citizen.

Most commercial loans make up 50% to 70% of property values and some are at 90%. Since then values have fallen 20% and the market is essentially frozen. Banks are demanding that 20% loss of equity in cash and payments have to be up to date, if not the loan is not renewed.

Real Capital Analytics says more than $100 billion of properties are in delinquency or foreclosure. NYC alone has 268 such distressed properties valued at $12 billion. There are another 19 cities with more than $1 billion of loans in trouble. Almost all will go under. As you can see, we have years to go before we hit the bottom and years to go before we emerge on the other side of this deliberately created economic and financial disaster.

Switching over to the residential area loans for mortgages under $465,750 are 4-5/8% to 5%, but jumbo’s, those above that amount, are still up at 7%. Those are rates for about 10% of borrowers. Actually that amount is $417,000 for conventional mortgages. Those mortgages between $417,000 and $465,750, average 5.6%.

Jumbo mortgage rates are higher because lenders who initiate the loans are having trouble selling them on the secondary market where the resale of mortgages provides funds for new loans. The banks and investment groups that buy mortgages are not in the market and are avoiding high-risk investments. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not buy jumbos. This situation could be changed by being part of the stimulus package.

For a decade, Russian Academic and former KGB analyst, Igor Panarin, has been predicting that the US will fall apart by 2010. He also predicts that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the US.

Panarin is Dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to the Kremlin, lectures students, publishes books and appears in the media as a US-Russia relation’s expert.

He blames the US for all the trouble in the Middle East and for the global financial crisis. He says there is a 45% to 55% chance of disintegration in the US. He believes that within the US that mass immigration, economic decline and moral degradation will trigger civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010 he says the US will break into six pieces, with Alaska reverting to Russian control. Mr. Panarin did much the same work we did 20 years earlier with ASA and NSA. He was with the KGB and worked for the FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the US national Security Agency, NSA. He, as we do, predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the US. He says when the going gets tough states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including civil war will follow. The US will then split upon ethnic lines, which we question, and be believes foreign powers will move in. We also disagree with that because all countries will be in no position to send troops anywhere. They are all going to be beset by the same set of problems. He goes on to describe the breakup and participation of foreign nations in the US, which we see as wishful thinking. We expect the overthrow of the US government, but if foreigners attempt to occupy the US they’ll share the same fate as that of the US government.

...

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

Saturday, January 10, 2009

  011009 (3)_IF

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman

E-Mail Addresses:

international_forecaster@yahoo.com

if_distctr@yahoo.com

CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE

www.theinternationalforecaster.com

1-YEAR $159.95 U.S. Funds

US AND CANADIAN SUBSCRIBERS: Make check payable to Robert Chapman (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address.

Or:

We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card US$159.95 for a one-year subscription.

You can email us in two separate emails (1- the Credit Card Number with full name, address and your telephone number and (2- the Expiration date on the card.

NON US OR CANADIANS SUBSCRIBERS:

Due to the time that it takes for your mail to arrive to us from a foreign country, we would like for you to email us as above the CC information in two separate emails.

Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or twice a week by E-mail. international_forecaster@yahoo.com or if_distctr@yahoo.com

RADIO APPEARANCES:

To check out all of our radio appearances click on this link below:

-- Posted Sunday, 11 January 2009 | Digg This Article