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International Forecaster March 2009 (#4) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

-- Posted Sunday, 15 March 2009 | | Source:

The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster.  For the full 25 page issue, please see subscription information below.



Our Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday warned that the global recession was deepening and urged strong actions by all major nations. That must mean we are in depression.


Federal individual tax payments fell 64% yoy, and withholdings fell 16% yoy. This is a disaster – revenue is totally collapsing. That $2 trillion shortfall fiscal loss for 2009 could be $2.5 to $3 trillion.


We believe the Fed started buying new Treasury instruments directly from the Treasury about four months ago. Recently Fed Chairman Bernanke put us on notice that he was going to use all the tools available to revive economic growth. We believe there will soon be news that the Fed is officially buying US Treasuries from the Treasury.


That means overnight loans between banks will range from zero to 0.25%. The US will almost triple its debt sales this year to over $2.5 trillion. Perhaps next year bonds will be a great short or maybe even later this year.


We are hearing more and more about digital gold as a private-bank solution to potential devaluation of fiat currencies. The May/June issue of the CFR’s, Foreign Affairs magazine, Brenn Steil a senior fellow and director of International Economics, who has been on loan from the parent Royal Institute in London since 1996, says digital gold, “although a niche business at present, gold banking has grown dramatically in recent years in tandem with the dollar’s decline.” Mr. Steil was the Illuminist who drew up the plans for the North American Union and the Amero. If there is digital gold out there somewhere we haven’t heard about it.


The new approach to a world currency obviously will be digital gold. This way they can introduce a one-world currency backed by gold to make it acceptable to the world public. The digital nature means government would know every aspect of your financial life and would control you and your country. The gold storage would, of course, be controlled by the Illuminists. The elitists have come to the conclusion another fiat currency is not going to be acceptable. This is why JP Morgan Chase, Citicorp and Goldman Sachs talk in terms of $2,000 gold and UBS projects $2,500. Historically such benchmarks are usually and normally exceeded by prices from $3,000 to $7,000.


Steil says countries should abandon monetary nationalism and embrace a world currency.


Washington’s latest approach hasn’t worked and the CFR-London Institute approach is in trouble as well.


The Keynesians are beating their chests again in behalf of our elitist superstructure, as to why we shouldn’t raise trade barriers to finally protect workers from foreign competition. They believe trade will play an important part in the world’s recovery. This is the trade at which we lose $2.5 billion a day and that cost American workers more than 6.3 million jobs over the past eight years.


Protectionism has already begun by our friends and allies via subsidies and pushing down the value of their currencies. The US government doesn’t say anything about that because to cheapen currencies the country doing so buys dollars, which are used to buy US Treasuries and the process makes goods cheaper that are shipped into the US, which keeps inflation down.


Russia has already increased import barriers on cars, farm machinery and a host of other products. The EU has reintroduced subsidies on dairy products and Europe, Brazil and India have raised tariffs on imported steel. In England the nationalized banks are giving preference to local loans.


Mr. Obama’s trade representative, Ron Kirk, appears ambivalent about the value of free trade and we understand the Mexican truck program into the US has been scrapped. It looks like the administration will walk away from the South Korean free trade deal because it is unfair. He wants to open a public discourse with the public on whether the trade agreements awaiting ratification, with Colombia, South Korea and Panama, are a good idea. Due to strong labor connections he doesn’t want another round of WTO negotiations.


The days for collective action are really over. China’s exalted trade position is history.


What we are seeing in Washington under a different set of elitists is a continued expansion of the failed policies of the Bush administration. Team A has replaced Team B.


We do not like taxes or higher taxes, but if someone or something has to be taxed it is the wealthy, if for no other reason then they received most of the previous tax breaks. Besides they can afford it.


Our president says he will eliminate the carried interest tax advantages that benefited hedge fund managers, yet in reality there is not much carried interest income left to tax. That means the change he presents is phony.


Both parties are very comfortable with staggering deficits in a depressionary economy. Tax revenues are collapsing and we are monetizing debt, and that is the worst thing possible you can do.


The key to recovery in America is tariffs on goods and services and until that happens there will be no recovery. The system has to be purged of over-valued; misallocated assets and the value of all assets have to be adjusted to reality. The value of the dollar must fall and gold must be allowed to rise to reflect current circumstances. The longer we allow the elitists to postpone their adjustments, the more difficult it will be in the future. The Obama plan has to be stopped now or our society will collapse.


US commercial paper outstanding rose $3.9 billion last week versus a $44.2 billion fall the prior week. Asset backed CP fell $4.9 billion versus $2.0 billion. CP outstanding was $1.484 trillion versus $1.480 trillion. ABCP totaled $717.2 billion versus $722.1 billion. Unsecured financial CP rose $8.2 billion versus a fall of $35.9 billion.


The Fed Flow of Funds report showed household borrowing contracted at a 2% annual rate in the previous period. Home mortgage debt fell at a 1.6% pace, the third consecutive quarter of declines and consumer credit dropped at a 3.2% rate.


During the month, foreclosure filings were 390,631 properties, or one of every 440 US housing units. Nevada, Arizona and California had the highest totals.


State attorneys general are preparing for a surge of prosecutions of financial fraud, and there are hints the Obama administration’s budget will add to the effort.


Today scumbag Madoff went to jail; Fannie Mae requested $30 billion more to keep from collapsing; we found out Merrill Lynch lied to Congress and GE’s credit rating fell to AA+ from AAA. What thieving crooks. Where is the SEC to file charges – nowhere to be found? Didn’t you know they are a political appendage of our government and the elitists?



       Saturday March 14, 2009

      031409 (4)_IF

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

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