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International Forecaster April 2010 (#3) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster



-- Posted Sunday, 11 April 2010 | | Source: GoldSeek.com

The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster.  For the full 26 page issue, please see subscription information below.

US MARKETS

 

We have seen the Fed and the US Treasury execute policy that has served to bail out the financial industry that created the conditions that have persisted for more than 2-1/2 years. During that period Wall Street, banking and insurance may have been saved, but nothing has been done to solve the problems of the economy. What has been done has only complicated the problems. That has been the injection of money and credit in the trillions of dollars and the manipulation of markets. Throwing money at the problem does not solve it. As a result of this profligacy, saving financial firms and heaping unpayable debt on American citizens, the Fed has in that endeavor managed to destroy the US dollar. The situation is subtle but nevertheless in process and has been for more than seven years. As Ludwig von Mises said almost 100 years ago, “debauch the currency – engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction.” The interference of financial forces has led to today’s carnage in the global financial system. As we explained before this was not by chance, but done deliberately.

 

Under corporatist fascism the state intervenes in behalf of corporate interests and, of course, the public pays the costs. This is true not only in economic and financial matters, but in war as well. All are methods of controlling the public’s wealth as well as their freedom. In addition this is what the Patriot Acts, medical reform and Homeland Security are all about. Government control of the population is the result and in that atmosphere the prosperity and wealth is lost.

 

If government, the Fed, banking and Wall Street wanted to solve today’s problems they would let the depression run its course as was done in the depression of 1920-21. Let the system chastise those who have stepped out of bounds by allowing bankruptcy. In that time period it only took 18 months for the system to sort itself out. It’s when government and the Fed intervene that depressions last for years.

 

The intercession we have seen in the past 2-1/2 years is a perfect example of what not to do in a depression. It has been the usurpation of government and those who control government that has caused us to wallow in depression. Even though they created this calamity they have to make sure, above all else, that they survive what they have created. These controllers have taken over the markets and the economy and they could care less what the public thinks. If you do not believe that just look at what went on at the CFTC hearings last week. The CFTC had prior knowledge that JPMorgan Chase was going to rig the silver market. They had all the details and did nothing to stop it. When confronted with the details at the CFTC hearings they just change the subject. The CFTC is a government agency working for the government, not the people.  It doesn’t get any more blatant than this. We have contended this since August of 1988 and up until 11 years ago no one would believe us – they do now. This is a cabal of Illuminists and even with the great education and advice von Mises gave us he didn’t understand what these elitists were up too. We find it of interest that only a handful of financial commentators and newsletter writers will bring up the subject of the Illuminati. If you do not understand what the elitists are up too you can never get a clear picture of what this is all about. If you don’t understand you have no control of your fate and you may lose your entire civilization. It is not the power of government we have to challenge, but the power of those who control government.

 

The elitists who control America could care less about the average American. All they are interested in is power. As we have pointed out for many years the same group of people controls both political parties from behind the scenes. That is why we have seamless exchanges of power. Team A replaces Team B, all of whom are members of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderburg Group. This establishment picks and funds the candidates for the most part in both parties. As the power and size of government grows, so does their power. Large transnational conglomerates, Wall Street, banking and insurance are protected as the diminishing middle-class pays the bills. Yes, it is like a disease on the body politic and the American people.

 

Recently, the fall in consumer spending from 72% of GDP to 69.5% has forced government to replace that spending. This spending is planned to continue for at least 10 more years at more than $1 trillion a year in excess of revenues.

 

This reminds us of today’s debt poster child, Greece, which the Illuminists have singled out as the nexus of the looming sovereign debt crisis. Greece is to face austerity as 18 other nations with the same problem are still engaged in economic stimulus and the issuance of money and credit. Little do the other 18 know that it won’t be too long before they will be experiencing the same thing. The welfare state is being transformed into the poverty state. The free ride will be replaced by individual independence and self-reliance. The problem is will our masters allow this?

 

On thing for sure is that sovereign debt problems are pushing up interest rates for all nations. We cannot be positive, due to Fed secrecy, but this week’s auctions had all the earmarks of Fed intervention, especially in the longer end of the market. We are seeing lower debt ratings and it’s only a matter of time before the UK, US and Japan are cut. None of them are reining in spending. Greece has had to do so, as has Ireland. All these still big spenders will have to cut back, but the question is when? Our guess is next year. By the time this is over all nations will have to cut spending. If they do not their cost of borrowing will increase. Unfortunately this will bring about a deflationary depression.

 

Greece was chosen as the poster child to bring about deliberate long-term planning to take the world into a deflationary depression. Since December, Greek long-term interest rates have doubled and in that process the euro has fallen from $1.51 to $1.33. That is about 12% in four months. A lower euro is justified, but is a 12% rise in the dollar justified? We do not think so. America and Britain’s problems are dire as well. Interestingly while Greece’s rating was lowered the US debt limit rose to $14.3 trillion to keep the country running until after the November election. It was only six months ago that US T-notes yielded 3.3%. This past week they hit 4%. Last November we predicted 5% by the end of 2010 with a 6-1/4% to 6-1/2% 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Don’t be so smug, every nation that has been and is spending beyond its means will essentially have to devalue and default.

 

We ask how can it be that higher rates are viewed as a risk premium in Greece and as a sign of recovery in the US? In the end all rates are going higher, because every nation is in trouble. Greece has had a mixed past fiscally and for timely repayment of debt.

 

Why does the Fed insist on holding the short end rates down if a recovery is in progress? Why are they secretly buying bonds and notes on the long end? We will tell you why, because they know this recovery won’t last unless rates stay low, there is more stimuli and that the Fed increases money and credit – that is why. This is a false recovery – a mirage. The public consumption versus GDP has fallen from 72% to 69.5%, and that gap has been filled by government spending as borne out by a projected $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit for the year ended 9/30/10. The US record of fiscal management is no better than that of the Greeks. As the financial world comes tumbling down America’s Democrats have passed a multi-trillion dollar health plan. What is more irresponsible than that? There are 18 more nations ready to follow Greece and there is no way of reversing that. In Europe, the recovery is failing. Mainstream media is telling us that higher rates are fine. Who is fooling whom? Remember all the king’s horses and men couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty back together again. That is an apt description of sovereign debt today. It will get lots worse before it gets better.

 

This brings us back to Greece. When we covered the beginnings of the euro zone 10 to 12 years ago we knew, as did everyone in Europe, that both Greece and Italy had fudged their books to enter the zone. The other and more powerful and solvent nations knew neither nation should have been admitted – they simply didn’t qualify, but the other members wanted the business, so they looked the other way. The result is what you see today. Germany doesn’t want to lend money to Greece at 3%, but will at 6.50%, which to us is academic. Either way they will probably never get paid back. That is why Germany and France wanted an IMF solution. That is so they could spread the problem among all the nations of the world when in fact they were in part to blame for letting Greece into the zone in the first place. Now we have another liquidity crisis. Commerzbank, and others, are pulling repos with Greek banks, which is akin to what happened to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. German banks are sellers at the worst possible time. This is starting a cascade of asset liquidation to go along with a deposit run. These lenders do not believe Greece is going to make it. Even if they do Greece won’t be able to meet minimum collateral requirements as put forth by the ECB by the end of the year. By the looks of things Greece will have a budget deficit this year of 12.9% of GDP. The economy has shrunk by 2% year-to-date. This is putting further pressure on bonds even as the Greek government says they will cut the deficit to 8.7% of GDP next year and to 3% by 2012.

 

There are many in Europe that believe Greece will default. That is because you cannot have growth and austerity simultaneously. Just to stay even Greece needs a 5% budget surplus, which is impossible under the present circumstances and with European recovery failing. That includes a 30% cut in public spending, which is not attainable with massive demonstrations in the streets. Thus, default cannot be avoided.

 

That brings us to the cold hard facts, and the inevitability of default. The key to destruction was planted some time ago when Greece accepted the solutions of Goldman Sachs, all of which were illegal. They helped the Greek government cook the books in violation of ECB rules. They defrauded lenders and relieved Greek citizens of their tax money.

 

Greece should default. They should have never been in the euro in the first place. They are in part victims of their own vanity and greed, but on the other hand they are victims of the economic terrorists at Goldman Sachs. Greece doesn’t want the IMF and we don’t blame them. It means economic slavery for the next 20 years, just so creditors can be paid off. Greece is broke and that means they should declare bankruptcy just as so many countries have done before them. Banks should temporarily be nationalized, Greece should leave the euro zone and the drachma should be reissued in exchange for euros. Criminal charges should be brought against Goldman Sachs and the Greek officials that broke the law. That means that the Goldman Sachs’ loans do not get repaid and hopefully that will take Goldman Sachs under. In fact the Greek government should consider throwing Goldman Sachs out of the country except for those who are jailed awaiting their criminal trials.

 

This will lead to depression for Greece, but they will face that with every other country shortly anyway. This problem is not just one in Greece, but it is worldwide. What we are seeing here is planned demolition of the world economy to force its inhabitants to accept world government. That is what this is all about.

 

Above all Greece’s citizens should stay calm and not get violent. It is the last thing they want to do. The entire world is soon going to face the same problems. Starting a civil war is the last thing they should do. They can work the problems out, as painful as they are going to be. Violence will only give the enemy the opportunity to subject Greece to further tyranny - the tyranny of the bankers and those who want world government.

 

There is talk of a coordinated Greek bailout. We can promise you it is only to buy time, so that within a couple of years the world can devalue and default simultaneously. Any arrangement will only be temporary. What Greece and others face is not going to go away anytime soon.

...

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

SATURDAY, April 10, 2010

041010(3)IF

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

 

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman

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For correspondence to Bob: bob@intforecaster.com

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-- Posted Sunday, 11 April 2010 | Digg This Article | Source: GoldSeek.com



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