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-- Posted Sunday, 8 January 2006 | Digg This Article
January 6 – Gold $538.80 up $12.70 - Silver $9.08 up 31 cents "Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy." … Dale Carnegie GO GATA!
No real surprise. Because gold topped out above $530 weeks ago and then tanked, many market participants were thinking the same again. However, markets rarely accommodate "mob" thinking. Yesterday’s vicious market setback; fast, deep and violent … followed by today’s even smarter comeback is CLASSIC super bullish action. From the Wednesday MIDAS: "We should have already had our major shakeout on this part of the move. As is, many veteran gold pundits are sitting on the sidelines with their gold trading positions and have their clients out of their share positions. The market surprises are far more likely to be on the upside than on the downside for the time being. Yesterday’s surge was only our "Jacks for Openers." Today’s gold move up into new high ground further validates GATA’s analysis of the gold market: *The Gold Cartel has lost control. *Physical market demand is overpowering the bums – their diminishing central bank supply is just not enough at these price levels. *We are in the middle of a Commercial Signal Failure. The Gold Cartel and other shorts are panicking to cover whenever they can. Their problem is that there is so much buying out there, the market won’t stay down long enough for them to do any covering in size. Repeat commentary from the Wednesday MIDAS for emphasis purposes: The price of gold is going to rocket from these levels because: - There are many thousands of specs still to get long. The open interest numbers confirm as much.
- There are tens of thousands of shorts out there who are very exposed to a gold price explosion. A number will want out, or will be forced out. They will be buying on dips, as well as on rallies ... and later at any price.
- Most everyone is still gold clueless. Most of Planet Wall Street AND the mainstream gold world are baffled why gold is doing what it is. They just make up reasons why gold is moving up. Not hard to do. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY.
… This tells me GATA is right on the money about the shorts panicking in order to extricate themselves from their short positions. How are they doing? Not so good. By my calculations all they covered yesterday was around 40 tonnes, max. The total short position is above 10,000 tonnes. If only 10% of the minimum number of shorts plan to cover, it will take another 25 days like yesterday. 25 TRADING DAYS! SO, many more shorts are still to get out in the weeks and months to come. Then you have more than 45,000 specs who can get long just to take the open interest only back to where it was with gold $80 lower than here. AND THEN you have central banks trying to buy gold and a surging physical gold market in various locations of the world. Wait until Planet Wall Street wakes up. *** More from the Wednesday MIDAS: The Café Sentiment Indicator has moved up, but is still nowhere near what I would expect it to be with the price where it is. I would give it a 6 out of a peak number of 10. There is very little froth in the gold/silver markets, which is very bullish. I spoke with GATA’s James Turk this morning, and he is inclined to believe that gold is likely to go nuts in the first part of the year … then it may need to correct for some time. Based on the lack of bullishness; relatively low Café Sentiment Indicator; Market Timer bearishness; Planet Wall Street cluelessness; and most importantly, the massive short positions of The Gold Cartel and others, I agree. *** To this day I have not heard of anyone talk about the gold short position outside of the GATA camp. NOT ONE!!! Gold was hit for $3 in early Asian trading last night and then made a steady comeback. So much so that the AM Fix came in at $529.50. Then came a surge of buying on the Comex which took the PM Fix up to $535.25. Yesterday MIDAS brought to your attention a little noticed article about the Chinese and their monetary reserves. The FT ran with it late last evening and it caught the attention of many in the gold world: China signals reserves switch away from dollar
By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai and Andrew Balls in Washington
Published: January 5 2006 20:13 | Last updated: January 6 2006 02:43 China indicated on Thursday it could begin to diversify its rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar and government bonds – a shift with significant implications for global financial and commodity markets. http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e25-11da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html -END- The gold press was rife this morning about the Chinese shifting some of their reserves to gold. My take on all of this central bank buying talk and what is going on: MIDAS has been reporting to Café members for TWO YEARS now of Chinese buying through our STALKER source. I reported nearly five years ago of the Chinese scouring South Africa to secure gold supply. In addition this column has reported on South Korean central bank buying, as well as strong suspicions of other Asian central bank buying by the "little Stalkers." Most importantly, the price of gold has taken off, and all this talk of central banks buying gold has hit center stage since Gold Rush 21 … after Andrey Bykov, a key economic consultant to President Putin, left the conference. The sequence of events from the Russian Central Bank mentioning GATA in a speech in Moscow (then translating the speech for GATA), to Bykov at the conference, to President Putin having a picture taken of him with a gold bar in his hand, has been well documented here. Many of these central banks have been buying for some time. The Russians and Chinese are too smart to announce their intentions to the world in advance. They have already done a lot of this buying, or secured supply, most likely through intermediaries. At some time in the future it will show up on their books as gold reserves. Have no idea when. However, the key here is that hedge funds and other big money are getting the word major central banks are buyers of gold. THAT is the new perception. Thus, they want in because they know the gold market CANNOT accommodate even marginal buying from these sources without taking the price much higher. In addition, the big money realizes that a number of these same central banks WILL BE buyers on dips. So, they realize the downside for the price of gold is limited. It gets better. The Gold Cartel and their allies know they are TRAPPED. The crooks and friends know the downside is limited too and are trying to cover as fast as they can. This is why we are seeing these dramatic price surges to the upside. The gold open interest fell as expected 3177 contracts to 328,916. The silver open interest also fell … 2232 contracts to 131,542. This morning I was informed of a rumor of a forced silver liquidation yesterday for some obscure reason – including options … due to something not related to the silver market itself. That makes sense as the magnitude of the silver move down did not make sense. The reason is that we had "the trade" and Morgan Stanley as buyers the day before with the funds as sellers. Could not understand the depth of the silver sell-off. While we are seeing a Commercial Signal Failure in gold, the silver shorts are still hanging in there. Only a matter of time before there is a Commercial Signal Failure in silver too. We will observe silver move $1 higher in a single trading session. Gold makes yet another 25-year high … FEB gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/26 March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/36 Speaking of one of the crooks. Adrian on Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs: Bill,
As of today Jan 6 Goldman Sachs position on TOCOM is 15,029 short and 3611 long. From yesterday they increased their short position 1124 contracts and left their long unchanged. The vicious raid on NY failed to break the market. The OI indicates that the market is not overbought and the local shorts are covering. GS is going against the market dynamics. This is different from their usual approach of attacking an overbought market…commercial signal failure, perhaps?
Cheers
Adrian GLD added 19 tonnes of gold yesterday. Unusual and bullish for gold demand. Perhaps for some of The Gold Cartel’s short friends who are so desperate to cover. GLD is not my cup of tea, as it is run by the anti-gold World Gold Council. www.goldmoney.com is. The latest from GATA’s James Turk: This is to let you know that you can now buy silver through GoldMoney.com in the same, convenient, safe and economical way that our customers now purchase gold. Just click the new silver tab on our home page http://goldmoney.com/en/index.php The silver our customers purchase is in allocated storage in a specialized bullion vault near London, England, and their silver is insured by Lloyd’s of London. The same governance procedures we apply to gold are also used for silver, so our customers know their metal is safe.
Purchases can be made in US dollars, Canadian dollars, euros and British pounds. Also, existing GoldMoney customers can use their goldgrams to purchase silver.
Regards
James What makes the GATA analysis of this gold market so obviously correct and right on can be ascertained by observing what the US stock and bond markets are doing. The US stock market is moving up steadily and US interest rates are sanguinely moving lower. There is not the slightest trace of concern about anything regarding inflation or safe-haven stuff in these markets: March S&P
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/36 March 10-year T note
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NO/36 When it comes to the dollar, IT is starting to swoon. Today it fell .46 to 88.62, while the euro was up .55 to 122.08. However, look at what the dollar has done the past many months and compare it to what gold has done. The dollar was at 87 during Gold Rush 21. Gold was $436. Gold has clearly moved all on its own and now is the beneficiary of our expected dollar weakness tailwind. One other way you know this move is mostly gold demand oriented rather than due to outside market factors is the magnitude of the daily moves in gold these days. These double digit days to the upside were unheard of for years no matter what the dollar did. Yep, The $6 Rule has had it. The tailwind for gold was gale force today. Oil stormed up $1.42 per barrel to $64.21. However, crude is still $3.50 per barrel lower than it was during Gold Rush 21. The CRB gained 3.67 to 339.47, another multi-decade high and more fuel for the gold tailwind. JAN CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/16 The John Brimelow Report This time its different! Friday, January 06, 2006 Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.90, PM $3.05, with world gold at $526 and $529.50. Ample, and adequate for legal imports. The rupee helpfully closed at another 3-month high. UBS reports, speaking of India: "The early signs are quite positive according to our physical sales desk. Normally the first ten days of the year see very little physical interest in gold yet this year light buying has taken place and customers are keen to arrange gold on consignment, a sign that they expect to see good buying soon." UBS also says: "In early 2005, very strong physical demand, largely from India, was the major reason why gold held above $400/oz during a period of rapid speculative selling. At some point this year heavy speculative selling will occur again and the level at which strong physical demand emerges will determine where strong support will be found for gold…. In November we heard from our Indian customers that good buying would be found at $460-470/oz but after the rally in gold we expect strong physical demand to kick in above $500/oz." Thinking about India and gold seems to be becoming more fashionable! TOCOM traded the equivalent of 26,424 Comex lots (+2.6%). The active contract closed down 11 yen but world gold went out $1.60 above the NY close. Open interest rose the equivalent of 1,423 Comex lots (4.43 tonnes); Mitsubishi’s data implies the public added 4.7 tonnes to its long. In sum, an attempt to spook the Japanese public by creating momentum from yesterday’s soft NY action was blocked by fresh buying appetite. The FT and others are carrying stories about the possibility of gold buying by the Chinese Central Bank. I doubt these greatly: but the impact on sentiment could be influential. GLD added a steep 18.9 tonnes of bullion to its holdings last night. A very astute gold observer notes this morning that this means there was a large seller about, as I mentioned yesterday – he hints at a Latin American Central Bank. The seller met a buyer apparently. NY yesterday traded 73,183 contracts, with open interest dropping 3,177 lots (9.9 tonnes). Presumably some longs were frightened out. Looking at today’s action they must be irritated. The Gartman Letter stuck to its guns and bought gold on the open. So apparently, did powerful friends. With estimated volume today of 95,000 and gold up $14.20, it once again appears that the resolute seller who has graced the gold market consistently for the past several years has scaled back activity. Earlier this week an observer was musing about some subjective similarities in the geopolitical situation between the present and the latter part of ’79 possibly to influence gold. That thought appears much more plausible now. JB CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH "Everything is Fine in Stepfordville," says a Planet Wall Street spokesman. The DOW shot up 77 to 10,959 and the DOG jumped 29 to 2306. 08:30 Dec. Average Hourly Earnings reported 0.3% vs. consensus 0.2%; average weekly hours 33.7 vs. consensus 33.8
Nov. avg. hourly revised to 0.1% from 0.2%; Nov. average weekly hours revised to 33.8 from 33.7.
* * * * * 08:30 Nov. nonfarm payrolls revised to 305K from 215K
* * * * * 08:30 Nonfarm payrolls reported 108K vs. consensus 200K; unemployment rate 4.9% vs. consensus 5%
* * * * * 08:34 Nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected, though upward revision and other figures offset
Non farmpayrolls were weaker than expected in December at +108K, though the entire shortfall vs the +200K consensus was offset by the upward revision to November to +305K from +215K. Also off setting the negative payrolls headline were the unexpected one tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 4.9% and the slightly better than expected 0.3% increase in hourly earnings. The report does not suggest any notable improvement in labor market conditions, but it also does not point to any deterioration, as the headline figure might have suggested. The market may also benefit from the perception that a slightly weaker headline will take pressure off the Fed to raise rates again. After aninitial downtick, S&P futures rallied and are now +6.1 vs fair value; 10-year note (6/32) to yield 4.38%.
* * * * * 2:18 Boston Fed President Cathy Minehan says fed funds rate now near bottom of neutral range -- Reuters
10-yr. (2/32) to 4.36%.
* * * * * This is the way MIDAS sees the US stock market too: Hi Bill,
I just wanted to give you a heads up on something I noticed today. It looks to me like the S&P and Nasdaq are starting to resemble a two month broadening top like on pg 152. of the Edwards and Magee TA book. That was the formation right before the great crash of 1929. I have seen this once before and it did not come to pass. In this case with the strength in gold of late, inverted yield curve, new Fed Chairman (a la 1987 crash), derivatives, Iran? etc. this could bear watching.
Goodnight,
Scott Speaking of history … Adrian:
http://www.oregonlive.com/editorials/oregonian/
index.ssf?/base/editorial/113641530636210.xml&coll=7
Bill,
How many times in financial and market history have these four infamous words been uttered "This time it’s different"? My guess is probably too many times to count! And how many times has it actually turned out to be "different this time"? …a rough approximation is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% of the time commonly known as ZERO or NEVER! Last time I remember hearing this was the New Economy of the 1990’s where Greenspan himself declared that increasing productivity due to innovation and technology had killed the old era of business cycles and we could expand our growth almost as far as the eye could see…for ever. You now know that that wasn’t true! It wasn’t different for the dot.com boom. Coincidently the same guy (Sir Alan) has postulated that the inversion of the yield curve is "different this time". This has always signaled recession in the past. But it is "different this time"! Oh really Mr. Greenspan! Well it’s a good story, and if you can get away with it for another 25 days it really won’t matter. Because by January 31 it will be "different this time" because we will have a new chairman of the FED in the form of John Law the Second, Dr. Ben Bernanke. But wait a minute! He pledged to continue the Greenspan policies. Greenspan strictly followed a doctrine of price stability and zero inflation, so he restrained himself to conservatively magic into existence only a piffling 6 trillion dollars in M3. Dr Bernanke will perhaps think that its time to target a bit of inflation…so who knows how much M3 he will conjure into existence?...and you won’t know because they don’t intend to tell you. M3 has passed into the realms of state secrets. May be it will be different this time,….but only by being more of the same! When a long established harbinger of economic turmoil is dismissed as out-dated, broken, irrelevant…it’s time to get some of that long dismissed, outdated, irrelevant barbarous relic…what’s it called again? ..errr G-O-L-D…yes! That’s it…GOLD. In 6000 years of human history, when it’s been time for gold, it has never been different.
Cheers
Adrian Rhody: Good morning Bill:
Gold lease rates are little changed this morning, although the spread between one month and one year has widened slightly, taking us farther from inversion. Silver reversed its surge of yesterday and lost all the rate increases. In this, it is acting contrary to its moves in the past. There is no follow through to the surge in leased silver from yesterday, and instead borrowers are backing away from the lease silver market. This implies that silver’s correction may be short indeed. Platinum had a minor fall in rates over the middle to late terms, while palladium had a significant increase in the later (6 month to 1 year) terms. http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html Over at CRIMEX there were 5 contracts delivered in silver, and one in gold, so not much is happening here. I note that Scotia Mocotta was the big stopper again, COMEX warehouse stockpiles in silver remained unchanged, but there was 600,000 or so ounces brought into HSBC vaults that left the same day and ended up in Scotia Mocotta’s which then withdrew the lot for no net change. This means HSBC had to bring silver in from outside COMEX to meet a demand from a customer at Scotia Mocotta, who then removed it from COMEX entirely. This sort of thing screams tightness in supply. Strangely, silver is under-performing gold somewhat at this time on the spot market. As Bill likes to say, silver continues to act unpredictably, and I think this is because silver is still under the thumb of COMEX futures shenanigans. This has to mean the silver short is increasing.
Regards, Rhody. Rhody’s brother: One has to like the way Adrian thinks: Bill,
I had a question from a friend who asked me "why doesn’t the Cartel just cover",... Well I think he has stated the situation correctly. Implied is the concept that central banks aren’t worried about profit, just preserving a system. If it costs gold, well,... I actually also have felt that gold is simply the "cost" of managing a pyramid scheme on a world-wide level. The point of all this is that most folks, who aren’t gold bugs or central monetary planners of governments, just go where the money flows to their pockets. If it is on the "dark side" and quasi legal, all the players on this side are complicit and eminently practical, and this is the important part- COMPLACENT. Why complacent? Well because most of them do not understand the system anyway. They are technicians. And incurious..You know the types, you are actually surrounded by them most of the time. They don’t want to know the truth, NOT because they can’t handle the truth, but because they just don’t care. Their success is the only concern - and they have had many years of successful experience of the dark side - without deeply comprehending just how dark it is. Theirs is not a moral or ethical view. In the end the scam and manipulation of the whole system can go on without that much maintenance because most people don’t care how it works, just that it does (for them). It has the support of the system. Many are now trapped and entering the "denial stage". (We know of this because it coincides with stage 2 of the gold and silver market.) This denial of the new reality attitude is not helpful, for delay ...as we are seeing ... is only making it worse for the supporters of the losing side. And the smart side, the specs ... US ... who have been buying at the lows because WE KNOW: it is beginning to be our time. And we now have the stronger faith on our side ... because we actually UNDERSTAND! Soon our side will be augmented (and funded) by the myriad of new spec technician types and they will drive these markets up,,,,,way up. And they won’t care why either. (Smile) That’s my slightly shorter version of what Adrian is saying. Accolades to him and you, Bill. You both help to cement the reasoning.
Regards,
Galearis From Jesse on his superb charts: .... don’t forget to look at the lowest righthand corner for the murph
This might be a little intense download on dial. Music sounds best with some nice headphones. Enjoy.
http://www.geocities.com/arthurcutten/jesse.html *** From market pundit "Jack Chan":
Thur 8:30pm EST
Greetings,
A few members are quite concerned about the "bullish sentiment" in gold, referring to some analysts who suggest a major top is in for gold, because of this and that. Lets address this "fear", by looking at only facts, not opinions.
- gold has rallied from a major bottom of $255 to current levels of $540 in the past four years. FACT.
- so far, anyone who has tried to pick a major top in gold in the past four years has failed. The failure rate is 100%. FACT.
- in the same four year period, anyone who has tried to pick a bottom to buy gold, has been successful. The most recent bottom was around $490 in Dec. The success rate is 100%. FACT.
Positive sentiment amid positive price action is natural, and as long as there are analysts who feel this bullish sentiment is unjustified, the bull lives on. *** Chris Powell and I will do some presenting at Peter Grandich’s seminar before the Vancouver gold conference on Saturday, January 21. The rest of the time both of us will be focused on the Gold Rush 21 DVD. Seminar details: 1:30PM and ending at 4PM? At the Terminal City Club which is just one block from hotel. Further details of seminar are on page 10 of Peter’s newsletter http://www.grandich.com/docs/GL_01-03-06.pdf -END- Chis and I hope to see some of you there. As far as the Gold Rush 21 DVD goes, we should be ready to take orders on Monday. What was communicated at this historic gold conference, who was there, and what the gold price has done since then, will stun Planet Wall Street when they view it. GATA is going to call on the GATA ARMY to spread the word around the internet about this DVD shortly. To view the Hollywood-like trailer, please go to:
www.GoldRush21.com More on Vancouver: "The Larry Reaugh Group of Companies" : Adanac Moly Corp, Goldrea Resources Corp, & Molycor Gold Corp. are hosting a party for GATA, GATA supporters and Cafe members from 6 to 10 on Monday evening, January 23, in the "Mountain Parlour Hospitality Suite" at the Pan Pacific Hotel.
Chris Powell and I hope those of you in town can make it here too and do a bit of celebrating with us. A sign of the gold times: DJ MARKET TALK: Randgold Could Miss Targets After Default 1513 GMT [Dow Jones] Randgold Resources (GOLD) could miss its production targets after a contractor defaulted at its Loulo gold mine, says John Meyer at Numis. The move could delay a ramp-up in production at the mine, which he says is symptomatic of problems at contractor level throughout the industry. But any dent to profit may be offset by the rise in the gold price, he adds. Maintains hold rating, 259p target. Shares trade +0.6% at 1000p. (DWE) -END- Adrian nailed it again last night: Bill,
With the stunning OI yesterday this is a VERY dangerous game the Cartel is playing this morning. They want every one to take the bait that the unemployment numbers are really bullish and the job market is on fire…. so then why did the FED say they aren’t going to raise interest rates for much longer? This could be a real quick flush out and bounce back. With the OI as it is the Cartel can not go short more short and stay more short…they have to go more short and hope to cover immediately as well as covering some of their other shorts. This will be telling. If it bounces to any great extent we are off to the races. The OI of yesterday suggests a big bounce back.
Cheers
Adrian All Café members owe Adrian Douglas a salute for one of the truly great sleuth market calls (short-term) I have ever come across. For those of you who are new to The Café: 11/13 Explosive Rise in Gold Mining Shares Has Been Coming – Now We Know Precisely When By Adrian Douglas http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=5010&SearchParam=Adrian Douglas …We have known for some time that we could expect a massive move up into Phase 2 of the gold bull market. I think we now also know when. -END- JUST IN… More SENSATIONAL COT (COMEX Committment Of Traders Report) news: As of Tuesday the large specs increased their spec longs by 1363 contracts, but increased their shorts by 4,924 contracts. Meanwhile the Commercials increased longs by 3,406 contacts and reduced their shorts by 1,819 contracts. This is unprecedented for the shorts to continue to cover their positions on such a rally and, once again, confirms the GATA analysis of the gold market. The bums are on the run. The Gold Cartel is in a heap of trouble. What do they say about, "It couldn’t happen to a nicer group of guys!" Yep, the Commercial Signal Failure is going into full bloom. GATA stretcher-bearers: you are doing a gentlemanly fine job of carrying these bullying bad guys out. Well done. IN LATE ... Adrian on the Open Interest: Bill,
You are dead right. What a corker! The Open Interest is just a knock out!!. It’s a real standoff …the only way for some one to go long is for someone to go short on the other side of the contract. Who would want to go short when this rocket is just blasting off? For someone to cover a short some one has to pitch in his longs. Who would want to pitch in his longs when the rocket is just blasting off? And so we have an amazing game played out. The only resolution is a MUCH higher gold price. At a much higher gold price some longs might be ready to take some profits and some traders may want to go short sensing an intermediate top. So the price goes up dramatically and the OI hardly moves. The outsiders want to go long but can’t get in because the shorts will not go more short, and in fact they want to get out of their shorts but can’t because no one is pitching longs. This situation is telling everyone what the new dynamics are and it is screaming "HIGHER GOLD PRICES" as the ONLY resolution. The Midas report has spelled this out in advance of the move. I wonder if there has ever been a market move in history that has been so well defined and laid out in ADVANCE of the move. Café members are getting a hell of a deal for their subscriptions!
Cheers
Adrian
The gold/silver shares are on fire. The XAU rose 4.47 to 139.86 and the HUI leaped 8.24 to 305.08. Yes Siree Bob, the gold/silver train has pulled out of the station with most all of Planet Wall Street clueless … much of the mainstream gold world too. What fun to see the smaller golds come to life after two years of doing little to sinking away. An example of this is one of my biggest holdings, Samex Mining, which closed at 71 cents, up 9.5 cents (15.45%). It wasn’t long ago that Samex was spending most of its time between 30 and 40 cents. (SMXMF)
http://new.stockwatch.com/swnet/default.aspx Many of the smaller gold/silver companies have begun their moonshots. The Gold Rush Fever long talked about in the MIDAS commentary has commenced … and we are only at blast off!!! The moves in many of the gold stocks will dwarf the NASDAQ mania of the late 90’s. Most in Planet Wall Street investment world still cannot even spell gold stocks yet. 
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT! MIDASAppendix This sure sounds like my buddy Chris Powell, the editor of Journal Inquirer: Journal Inquirer, Manchester, Connecticut
Thursday, January 5, 2006 http://www.journalinquirer.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=15875681&BRD=985&PAG=461&dept_id=565859&rfi=6 West Virginians who want to earn good money but don’t have a college degree have only two choices, the Associated Press reported this week from the coal mine disaster in Tallmansville: "You either have to cut it from the wooded hillsides or gouge it from the earth." Everybody knows that mining is dangerous; there are even songs about the danger. But as it turns out, cutting a living from the wooded hillsides is even more dangerous than mining, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has determined that logging produces the most fatalities per 100,000 people employed. Mining isn’t even in second place; that rank belongs to fishermen, with airplane pilots and structural metal workers ranking third and fourth. Miners and drillers rank fifth, roofers sixth. Police work and firefighting get respect as they should but they don’t rank in even the top 10 most dangerous occupations. A cop is more likely to die in an ordinary traffic accident than on the job. Mining may have the reputation as most dangerous occupation because mine accidents can be spectacular and fatal to groups of people while the fatalities in the other dangerous occupations tend to occur individually and so are less noticed even when they are more numerous. But mining is dangerous enough and, like the other dangerous occupations, not appreciated enough by a prosperous country that, having shifted so much from manual work to office work, seems to have lost track of where things really come from. (Contrary to popular belief, everything doesn’t start at Wal-Mart; that’s the end of the line, not the beginning.) Coal is a good example of the lack of appreciation for what are called the extractive industries, especially when those industries are considered from Connecticut’s perspective. More than half the country’s electricity is generated from coal, and the recent sharp increase in the prices of oil and natural gas has made coal more competitive and has strengthened the coal-mining industry. As a result, coal mines are expanding or reopening in Appalachia and elsewhere. Since most oil and much natural gas used in the United States are imported and since the United States has more coal than the Middle East has oil, the strengthening of the coal-mining industry will be good for the country if it underwrites the technology necessary for the cleaner burning of coal and the conversion of coal to other fuels, and if it underwrites better compensation and safer working conditions for miners. Yes, the coal-mining industry’s job-safety record is not as good as those of, say, Connecticut’s two biggest industries, government and insurance, and the Tallmansville mine seems to have violated safety standards more than the average mine. But then the mine’s current owner purchased it out of bankruptcy only a few months ago, figuring that higher energy prices might make it profitable again. And even under the best conditions danger will always be inherent in mining. So before Connecticut looks down its nose at coal and its problems, the state may want to consider the 22 percent increase in the electric rates it started paying this month, an increase caused by state government’s adamant refusal to diversify electrical generation options here. Take coal out of the national energy equation and electric rates in Connecticut would go even higher and get rate payers as mad as someone who likes to consider himself an environmentalist and then discovers that a wind farm or hydroelectric dam is proposed nearby. Nobody who flips on a light switch or a big-screen television set or who turns the key in the ignition of his car thinks of the coal miners or the oil and gas drillers. Suburbanites admiring their new outdoor deck are thinking of summer cookouts, not the lumberjacks who play tag with hundred-foot trees for a living. Anyone cruising the supermarket or a restaurant menu is thinking of dinner, not of the fishermen or pesticide-dusted migrant farm workers who may have made it possible, unless maybe he’s planning to watch "The Perfect Storm" or "The Grapes of Wrath" on his big-screen TV after dinner. For that matter, how much respect does the pizza delivery guy get, even though his job is both poorly compensated and a recent addition to the most-dangerous list, ranking above roofers, construction workers, police officers, and firefighters? Logging, mining, fishing, agriculture generally -- the extractive industries -- are the most dangerous industries, and for feeding, housing, clothing, and carrying the country they are largely taken for granted when they aren’t simply scorned. -END-
-- Posted Sunday, 8 January 2006 | Digg This Article
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