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Captain Nellie + Gold, RGLD & More Trading Notes

By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box


-- Posted Monday, 3 February 2003 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

Trading Notes will be brief today and tomorrow, since the two-day E-mini course is in progress. I will respond to your e-mails when I have time, probably later in the week, but for now I would ask that you hold your messages for a couple of days. I should mention nonetheless that several of you wrote me over the weekend to correct my spelling of Captain Bligh, which came out “Bly” as in Nellie Bly, the early-1900s suffragette and all-around, stand-up gal. I stand corrected.

[The + symbol means we have an open position,

while $ means there is actionable advice.]


Gold Futures

FEB GOLD (370.80): Our minimum projection is still to 378.10, but if that price is exceeded by more than a couple of ticks we’d expect the short-term bull cycle to continue up to at least 382.90. The move to these targets will be in the booster stage once the futures have traded above 372.80, a hidden pivot, intraday.


GoldCorp (NYSE:GG) : Quote - Options - News - Profile - Message Board - Website

+  GG (12.20):  We hold 200 shares for an average 4.65, and no changes are contemplated. When the stock closes above 13.77, or trades more than six cents above that price intraday, we should assume it's bound for a longstanding target at 15.72.

               

 
DURBAN DEEP (NasdaqSC:DROOY) : Quote - News - Profile - Message Board - Website

$   +   DROOY (3.92):  We hold 400 shares for an average 4.66. Once again, bid 3.82 for 200 more shares, day order. 

                 

 
$   RGLD (27.60): Our immediate upside target is 29.74, but we were unable to buy Feb 30 calls (MJQBF) for 0.40. Today let’s bid 0.45 for two of them, good on the opening rotation only.
 
               
 
 

DJIA (8109.82): If the Dow is sitting above an 8162 hidden pivot after the first hour, we should infer that it has sufficient strength to reach a minimum 8240 in this minor rally cycle. Short the latter target with a tight stop only if you are exiting a profitable long held on your initiative at that level.

 

E-Mini S&Ps (859.25): The nearest hidden-pivot support worth mentioning lies at 840.50, so that will be our minimum downside projection if the futures fall hard in the first hour. We won’t suggest bottom-fishing there, however, since the 840 level looks vaguely supportive because of some prior lows near there.

 

MAR 10-YEAR NOTE (113.310):  No change. The futures would need to close above 114.310 to suggest that a test of the important January 31 peak at 115.175 is likely.

 

OEX (435.70): Just a small addition: The closest pivot, and therefore our minimum upside target if the OEX should rally, is 442.66. In a somewhat larger picture, a garden-variety bear rally this week should be able to reach 456.16, equivalent to a 0.618 retracement of the decline from mid-January’s high. 

 

QQQ  (24.49):  The cubes are struggling to hold their ground at levels where several important bottoms were made over the last few months. With other issues we track seemingly ready to rally, our slightly bullish bias yields a modest upside target of 26.17, a Fibo level. It holds no special opportunities for us.

 

$    MAR NASDAQ 100 (986.50):  If the futures move higher, our minimum projection is to 1008.00, a hidden pivot; if lower, 970.25. The latter number can be bottom-fished in the first hour only, using the E-mini contract and a 970.50 bid, stop 969.50. You’ll be on your own thereafter.


-- Posted Monday, 3 February 2003 | Digg This Article


-- its free! --


MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.



 



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