We focused on very short-term charts Tuesday, with gratifying results.Most of the trading vehicles trackedbelow completed minor rallies to their hidden-pivot targets, allowing us to short confidently at what turned out to be the best prices of the day. Referring to the March e-Mini contract, we’d written that the futures were“on their way up to a hidden-pivot target at 842.50 when [Monday’s] closing bell rang.” Just so. Following a flaccid opening, the E-mini futures rallied to exactly 842.75 in the first hour, then went into a seven-point swoon. The subsequent rally carried to 842.50, but that turned out to be a last gasp, and after that it was down, down, down.If the decline continues, as we expect it to, we are ready with targets given here earlier that are 3-4 percent below current levels.Incidentally, I’ll be enjoying President’s Weekend in ski country with my family, so editions for Friday and Tuesday will be omitted.Next Wednesday’s edition will go out Tuesday evening as usual.
[The + symbol means we have an open position,
while $ means there is actionable advice.]
Gold
APR GOLD (363.00):No change. We’ve projected a pullback low near 358.90, a Fibonacci-based level, but with less confidence for purposes of bottom-fishing than if it were a hidden pivot. To keep things in perspective we should mention that a correction to as low as 344.86 would not even blemish the bullish look of the intermediate- and long-term charts.
+GG (11.94): We hold 200 shares for an average 4.65, and no changes are contemplated. Once the stock has closed above 13.77, or trades more than six cents above that price intraday, we should assume it's on its way to a longstanding target at 15.72.
$+DROOY (3.94):We own 600 shares for an average 4.38, but an attempt to buy an additional 200 shares for 3.69 fell six cents short of yesterday’s low. Once again, let’s bid 3.69 for 200 shares, day order. That’s an important hidden-pivot.
RGLD (26.00): Royal slid briefly beneath the 24.21 threshold we’d flagged as crucial to the stock’s short-term health, but the recovery was impressively robust. Even so, it will need to climb above 27.17 to be considered out of the woods for the near term.
$DJIA (7843.11): Two hidden pivots below these levels will serve as targets for the short-term. The first lies at 7467.65, but if that number is exceeded intraday by more than five points, we should infer that the next, 7163.85, is likely to be reached.You can bottom-fish either, but it will be on your initiative and at your complete discretion.
$E-Mini S&Ps (829.25):Yesterday’s advice was good for a relatively effortless profit of up to $300 per contract for those who followed our instructions precisely. Now, assuming the decline continues, we expect a potentially important low at 793.75, a hidden pivot that looks compelling as a place to bottom-fish. If and when the time comes, you can do so with a 793.75 bid for an E-mini contract, stop 792.75. Best place to look for a bounce between here and the target: 815.50, another hidden-pivot support that you can bottom-fish on your own terms, first 90 minutes only.A stop at 814.75 should suffice, but you’ll be on your own thereafter.
MAR BONDS (112.10):No change. If the futures can close today above a hidden pivot at 112.22 we’d rate them an even bet to take out late December’s high, 113.26.If it is a flight to quality rather than, say, a reaction to a rally in the dollar, gold quotes will confirm by surging higher.
OEX (418.58):The pivot given yesterday nailed the intraday high to within 0.04 points, so some of you may have made some easy money shorting into the rally. We expect lower prices today, to a minimum 411.87, a hidden pivot. You can bottom-fish there according to your own plan, but we’d suggest risking no more than pocket change on the initial stop-loss.
QQQ(24.15):Yesterday’s high exceeded our minimum target by 16 cents – too much to allow shorts from 24.50 to remain in the trade, since we’d suggested a stop-loss no wider than 3 cents. Today we expect lower prices, down to a minimum 23.26. That’s a hidden pivot, but not so fetching a one that we’ll recommend bottom-fishing there.
MAR NASDAQ 100 (972.00):Yesterday’s surge carried six points beyond our target, suggesting thatif any trading vehicle can turn the market higher today, it will be the Naz. Assuming 962 is not touched first, a bullish surge would become likely if the futures are holding above 982.00 after the first hour. If so, we’d expect an additional 20.00 points of upside, to a minimum 1002.00.
MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
