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-- Posted Wednesday, 19 February 2003 | Digg This Article
Our Dirty Dozen list of gold stocks is taking final shape and should be tracking in real time by no later than the end of next week. We asked subscribers to nominate mining companies that have been scandalized, mismanaged and/or publicly disparaged, and you have come up with some real winners…er, make that, losers. Silverado, though not without its ardent defenders, was leading the pack from the get-go, but the following headline, contained in an e-mail message from a Black Box subscriber, clinched a spot on our list: "Gold analyst 'disappears' following WND report; Touter of Silverado stock rumored to have fled country after story ran." We are sure the analyst will turn up somewhere – Tahiti, perhaps, in the company of Judge Crater – and the flurry of excitement over his whereabouts will turn out to have been based on a simple misunderstanding. But for now, we’ll ask that you hold off on any further Silverado nominations, since it’s a shoe-in. Nominations will be closed on Friday, so please let us know asap if there is an overlooked "tailing" that deserves a place on our list. Also, I am looking for volunteers who can track the value of this Dirty Dozen index in real time. Ideally, purchase prices for the twelve stocks could be established from any given day – past, present or future. We can do this with the RealTick application, but we are looking for back-up and independent corroboration. If you are able to help with this chore, please let us know via e-mail. (I’ve provided precise hidden-pivot targets for nearly all vehicles today that can tell us much about the potential of any broad-based rally. All of the targets are predicated on strength from the opening bell. A modest decline in the first hour or two, to beneath Wednesday’s lows, would not necessarily invalidate the bullish case, but it would alter our targets in ways which we cannot currently predict. The targets should work astoundingly well, however, if there is no pullback on the opening.) [The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.]
Gold
APR GOLD (350.20): A Fibonacci-based support at 344.86 has contained the correction so far, but if it is breached over the next 1-3 days we should expect the decline to continue to at least 340, the lower threshold of a compelling point-and-figure channel. Any close below 338 would put the futures on course for a test of support near 330, where a lengthy consolidation occurred between late October and early December.
+ GG (11.98): We hold 200 shares for an average 4.65. Goldcorp has been stuck between 11.40 and 12.00 for a week – an impressive performance, considering the nasty fall that bullion quotes have taken over the same period. For now, we should continue to monitor a hidden-pivot support at 11.15 closely, since its breach would imply that the correction has an additional ways to go, to an even more important pivot at 10.26.  
DURBAN DEEP (NasdaqSC:DROOY) : Quote - News - Profile - Message Board - Website
$ + DROOY (3.79): We own 600 shares for an average 4.38. Once again, enter a day order for 200 shares, 3.41 bid.
RGLD (24.91): No change. There’s a minor pivot at 23.97 that we are using for a pullback target, but it’s too close to the February 11 low at 23.81 to be an enticing place to bottom-fish.  
DJIA (8000.60): If stocks head higher from the opening bell, look for the Indoos to reach a minimum 8110.52, a hidden pivot that you can short on your own initiative. If you do, risk no more than small change on the initial stop. Any progress above 8110.52, however slight, would imply the short-term bullish cycle has sufficient power to reach 8285.77. $ E-Mini S&Ps (846.25): Unless the futures dip below 836 (including during the night session), our minimum projection is 864.25. If the opportunity should arise, you can short a single contract there, stop 865.25, until the final hour. Switch to a 2.50-point trailing stop below 859.00, using 851.00 for a minimum target. MAR BONDS (113.15): No change. The penetration last week of December’s 113.26 high portends further upside, to a minimum 115.30. That is the easy part of the forecast, but speculating on what it might mean is beyond current reckoning. It would appear that it will not be a flight-to-quality. OEX (428.80): If the OEX doesn’t pull back this morning, look for the first surge to carry to at least 435.34, a hidden pivot that you can short according to your own design. A stop no higher than 435.57 is suggested. If it’s hit, we’d infer the index is on its way up to at least 445.65, a somewhat more important pivot that also would be short-able. QQQ (25.08): Same deal as the OEX: First-line resistance lies at 25.55, so we’ll make that our minimum upside target for today. Further strength, to a minimum 26.40, would be signaled by the slightest penetration of 25.55. APR GOLD (350.20): A Fibonacci-based support at 344.86 has contained the correction so far, but if it is breached over the next 1-3 days we should expect the decline to continue to at least 340, the lower threshold of a compelling point-and-figure channel. Any close below 338 would put the futures on course for a test of support near 330, where a lengthy consolidation occurred between late October and early December. MAR NASDAQ 100 (1009.50): A rally to 1062.00 is possible over the short term, but the futures will first need to get by a hidden pivot at 1028.00 – our minimum upside target for today. The lower resistance can be shorted with a micro-stop (i.e., 1029.50), but you’ll be on your own thereafter. *** IBM (79.51): There’s a hidden pivot at 80.86 that will serve as our minimum upside target for today, but if Big Blue can get past it, look for a run to at least 82.94, another hidden pivot. INTC (16.80): Our minimum upside projection is 17.26, but anything above it would make Intel an odds-on bet to reach 18.03. C (33.36): On a rally, our minimum expectation would be 33.95. If the stock goes even 3 cents higher, it will clinch a run to at least 34.92. + MSFT (24.53): We hold eight April 30 calls with a cost basis of 0.60. A run to 25.77 or higher is possible on the next surge, but it’ll take a 28 print over the next week or so to drive our calls into the realm of profitability. $ + EBAY (76.99): We hold two March 80 calls for 1.20. Once again, but this time on a g-t-c basis, offer two March 85 calls short against them for 0.90. We’ll likely get filled if the stock rallies to 79 today.
-- Posted Wednesday, 19 February 2003 | Digg This Article
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MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.
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