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-- Posted Friday, 28 February 2003 | Digg This Article
During yesterday’s Wise-Ex presentation we looked in vain for promising trade set-ups in the E-mini S&Ps. Unfortunately the little bugger spent much of the day playing cat-and-mouse in a four-point range. Such action seemingly made the futures untradable for all but CME floor pros, whose commissions are low enough to allow them to profit even when cyclical price swings are reduced to mere pennies. For retail customers, though, even the most nimble of them would have had difficulty picking winning trades amidst Thursday’s tiresome action. If we get more of the same today, that would probably be about as bullish a scenario as we could hope for. It’s Friday, after all, and few traders could be eager to take home long positions, given the grave geopolitical uncertainties that continue to dominate the news. In most instances below, I’ve given both bullish and bearish targets for the near term, though no new trades. You can improvise by taking countertrend positions at those targets, but no more than pennies should be placed at risk. We are as bored and frustrated with this market as the next guy, but that is never an excuse for forcing trades. [The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.] Gold
APR GOLD (346.20): Yesterday’s drubbing left the futures above last Wednesday’s 342.40 low, but if that support fails today it would leave the April contract in jeopardy of falling to as low as 336.60, a hidden pivot, over the near term.
GoldCorp (NYSE:GG) : Quote - Options - News - Profile - Message Board - Website
+ GG (11.14): We hold 200 shares for an average 4.65. We’ll continue to bid 10.46 for 200 shares in case the stock pulls back. Goldcorp would need to rally above 11.80 to get out of jeopardy over the near-term.  
DURBAN DEEP (NasdaqSC:DROOY) : Quote - News - Profile - Message Board - Website
+ DROOY (3.45): We own 600 shares for an average 4.38. Yesterday’s slight slippage below 3.40 suggests the decline will continue, to at least 3.19. It’d need to touch 3.84 intraday to turn the short-term picture bullish.
RGLD (19.50): For those who are near despair, we should note that a full, 0.618 correction of the bull cycle begun last July near $9 would bring Royal down to 16.45. Corrections of that magnitude are considered both normal and healthy in powerful bull markets such as this one.  
DJIA (7884.99): If bulls can get something going today – a doubtful prospect as we head into the weekend – it would have the potential to carry the Dow to as high as 8166, a hidden pivot, by early next week. The first clue we’d have is an easy penetration of a lesser pivot at 7943.12. If that number is breached by more than two points intraday, or if the index closes above it, we’d make the Indoos an even bet to reach our target within the allotted time span. The bearish case has the index falling to at least 7814, or as low as 7552 next week if it doesn’t hold. E-Mini S&Ps (838.25): If the futures move higher from the opening bell, look for the rally to carry to at least 849.75, a hidden pivot. It does not look like a promising spot to go short against the trend, although it could stop the bull cold. Alternatively, the closest important hidden-pivot support below lies at 825.50. MAR BONDS (114.24): Yesterday’s rally missed out longstanding target at 115.07 by just three ticks. That could be it for a while, but if the futures get second wind and pierce 115.07 by 3-4 ticks, we’d infer there is strength remaining to take them to at least 116.13. OEX (423.50): The OEX still needs to exceed 426.15, and to hold above it for at least a short while, to suggest it’s capable of a slightly more impressive feat – namely, a move up to a hidden pivot at 431.24, a hidden pivot. QQQ (24.77): No change. We’d turn bullish, sort of, if the cubes can muster a rally above 24.94 in the first hour (they missed by 3 cents yesterday), or if they can close above that price. Our minimum upside target thereafter would be 25.80. MAR NASDAQ 100 (996.00): Just a small change. We said the futures would need to exceed a hidden pivot at 1003.25 to show some pluck, but they stalled out again yesterday just below it, at 1002.50. 1003.25 is still the number to beat, but if the March contract simply turns lower, it would probably seek support within the range 950-960.
-- Posted Friday, 28 February 2003 | Digg This Article
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MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.
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