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-- Posted Friday, 28 February 2003 | Digg This Article
In an average day at the office I might imbibe about three minutes’ worth of CNBC, most of it gleaned in passing TV monitors on my way to and from the water fountain, or enroute to the Wise-Ex Webcast studio on the far end of the building. On Friday, however, I ate lunch in the company lunchroom rather than at my desk, as I usually do, and this exposed me to twenty Styrofoam-filled minutes of CNBC commentary and reportage, such as it is. I had always imagined that it would be difficult in a bear market for CNBC to fill the airwaves all day, every day, with interesting and worthwhile features. What could they possibly talk about with the economy in a three-year dirge and most stocks unable to rally for more than a day or two at a stretch? Not much, evidently. The two featurettes that I caught received about three times the air time they might’ve gotten during the heady days of the bull market, and in both cases it was a journalistic stretch to make them fit a format geared ostensibly toward investors. One of the segments concerned how consumers often need spend only a few more dollars to buy an excellent product rather than a merely good one. Enough said. The other story concerned Disney and how the company is putting its imprimatur on a wider variety of films. This story came courtesy of The Wall Street Journal, which, more and more, has been helping CNBC to while away the time, furnishing its reporters, stories and graphics for on-air presentations. CNBC’s bland prattle will not likely improve to the point where news coverage is in the same class as The Journal’s, but in this instance they seem to have imported one of the Wall Street newspaper’s worst flaws – a tendency to evaluate a company’s fortunes as though they were independent of the quality of the product or service that company sells. Thus did the Journal once run a lengthy, negative story about Subway without ever once mentioning that the franchiser’s hoagie sandwich is a joke in places like Atlantic City, where White House sub shop makes the real thing. And so it went during Friday’s discussion of “Disney” films. Just a generation ago, a release from Disney was a major event in most kids’ lives. These days, however, the Disney name is synonymous with swill – soulless, feature-length cartoons that look like they were drawn with a Microsoft-Word tool, and live-action movies with no-name actors and unengaging scripts that seem to have been written by a computer (Microsoft Screenplay 5.0?). Rather Surprising The pleasant surprise of the day, media-wise, was our discovery that Dan Rather, the leftist news anchor, is actually not a bad reporter. Rather’s “Baghdad Dispatch,” published at Wall Street Journal Online, contains impressions of his recent interview with Saddam that are both vivid and instructive. Here is Rather at his very best, not merely reading the news but crafting it brilliantly, with finely nuanced insightfulness: “When Saddam Hussein enters the room his footsteps sound sharp reports that reverberate off the hard tiles to the high ceilings above. He displays a keen awareness of his personal bearing, and he tries hard to radiate what military people call "command presence." Despite some stiffness, perhaps the result of reported back problems, he stands upright, at his full height of about 6 feet 2. Now 68 years old, he is thinner than when I last saw him. Down from about 240 pounds to an estimated 215 to 220. His gait is unhurried. From the outset, he is calm, almost eerily, preternaturally so.” Welcome back to the world of journalism, Mr. Rather. [The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.]
Gold
APR GOLD (349.90): Friday’s close looked sufficiently robust to suggest the rally will continue into today. If so, we’d look for a minimum 353.40, subject to possible resistance at 351.00, a hidden pivot.
+ GG (11.44): We hold 200 shares for an average 4.65. Odds of a fill are fading, but we’ll nonetheless continue to bid 10.46 for 200 shares in case the stock pulls back. Goldcorp needs to rally above 11.80 to get out of jeopardy over the near-term.  
DURBAN DEEP (NasdaqSC:DROOY) : Quote - News - Profile - Message Board - Website
+ DROOY (3.60): We own 600 shares for an average 4.38. Yesterday’s swoon brought DROOY to within 6 cents of our 3.19 target – probably not close enough to allow you to fish a few shares at the lows on your own initiative. We’ll attempt nothing further today.
RGLD (19.45): We’ll repeat Thursday’s comments for those of you who have been feeling Royal’s pain. To wit, a full, 0.618 correction of the bull cycle begun last July from around $9 would bring Royal down to 16.45. Corrections of that magnitude are considered both normal and healthy in powerful bull markets such as this one.  
DJIA (7891.08): Friday’s penetration intraday of a 7943 hidden pivot will allow us to give the bull the benefit of the doubt today. The nearest crucial resistance lies at 7924. If it’s penetrated without the Dow’s first having slipped below 7855, we’d infer that a move to at least 7994 is under way. Alternatively, if the index heads lower from the opening bell, we’d look for a bounce at exactly 7808.39, a hidden pivot. $ E-Mini S&Ps (841.00): If the closing-hour rally spills over into today, expect the futures to reach a minimum 849.75 (a target first broached here on Friday). You can short a single contract there with an 850.25 stop in the first 30 minutes, but you’ll be on your own thereafter. If the stop is hit, the next potentially short-able impediment, a hidden pivot, lies at 853.00. $ MAR BONDS (115.26): Based on Friday’s action, our minimum upside target is 116.13. If you’ve held long positions on your own initiative, profit-taking was prudent at 115.07, but at least two thirds of any remaining position should be exited between here and the new target. OEX (425.36): Yet again, the index will need to hold easily above a hidden pivot at 426.15 to suggest it is ready to leap to the next, 431.24. A close above the latter number would leave the OEX in good position for a run to 438.61, our most-bullish scenario for the next 2-3 days. QQQ (25.16): By finishing above a hidden-pivot resistance the cubes signaled a move to at least 25.80 today, or if any higher, to 26.13. $ MAR NASDAQ 100 (1010.50): Friday’s close above 1003.25 gives the futures a fighting chance to reach 1037.50, a hidden pivot, by no later than midsession tomorrow. You can trade with the trend at your discretion, but officially I’ll recommend shorting 1037.50 with a 1039.50 stop, good until the final hour. Use a single E-mini contract and switch to a 4-point trailing stop below 1028.00. Target: 1017.
-- Posted Friday, 28 February 2003 | Digg This Article
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MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.
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