[The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.]
DJIA (9036.32): By a fraction of a point, the Indoos held above the lowest of several hidden-pivot supports I’d flagged. This is not a bullish development, merely slightly less bearish than the worst-case scenario I’d proffered for the day. The Dow would need to rally today above the 9156.84 peak made on August 5 to reverse the mildly bearish tide, but it would take a close of 9209 or higher to kindle some excitement.
SEP E-MINI S&Ps (959.50): If the futures rally into the range 973.50 – 987.00 then fall a minimum 11.50 points, it would signal additional downside of about 34 points. Alternatively, and considering a smaller picture, it would take a 993.00 print to trip a bullish signal for the near term.
SEP BONDS (107.16): Wednesday’s upsurge was the strongest we’ve seen in a long while, but the rally must continue to at least 111.13 to turn the intermediate-term trend bullish.
OEX (488.13): Yesterday’s decline stopped just shy of the July 1 low, 484.41, but the subsequent rally was not strong enough to get the OEX out of immediate jeopardy. That would take a move, by no later than Friday, through the July 31 peak at 505.84.
QQQ (30.19): A hidden-pivot support at 30.19 was breached by 9 cents at yesterday's lows, but that is sufficient to imply the cubes will head still lower today. If so, they are apt to test a band of support between 29.50 and 30 that was created by a consolidation pattern formed in late June.
DEC GOLD (353.00): The futures eked out a close just above the 352.80 bullish “trigger” I’d flagged. This portends somewhat higher prices, but it would take a move through a second, more-important hidden pivot at 359.60 to confirm that a rally powerful rally is under way – one powerful enough, presumably, to challenge a series of prior peaks around $370.
SEP NASDAQ E-MINI (1214.50): The futures appear bound for a test of obvious support near 1200. A close beneath that number, however, or an intraday move even slightly below it, would imply that the July 1 low at 1179.00 will be probed.
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BRCM (20.01): Broadcom has slipped well below a hidden-pivot support at 20.33, increasing the odds that it is bound for another at 19.01. We won’t try to bottom-fish there, though, since it is too close to the natural and likely support of a whole number.
FNM (64.50): Fannie’s rally yesterday pushed above a minor resistance at 64.74, but it will take a move today through another at 65.88 to confirm that the minor trend has swung to bullish.
$ + C (43.52): We hold sixteen September 40 puts for an average 0.79. Citi need only close above 44.10 today to trigger a bullish stochastic signal on the daily chart. If it looks as though the stock is going to end the session between 44.11 and 44.20, buy 200 shares, market-on-close. Citi bullishness would be a positive sign for the market as a whole, since we still view the stock as an important bellwether – perhaps THE key bellwether -- of the bear rally begun in March.
+ GG (12.58): We hold 400 shares for an average 7.20. We have no plans to adjust our position until Goldcorp moves above 13.00.
+ HL (5.70): We remain long the September 5 – August 5 call spread forty times for an average CREDIT of 58 cents, implying the worst we can do is make $2,300. The main resistance immediately above is not the obvious one, July 28’s 5.99 peak, but a hidden pivot at 6.07. Once above that number Hecla would become an odds-on bet to reach a minimum 6.84 in the current, intermediate-term cycle.
$ + RANGY (12.42): We hold 400 shares for an average 10.53. Rangy’s decisive move above a hidden pivot at 12.24 means that it is now bound for at least 13.37. Let’s get ready to take some profits by offering 100 shares to close at 13.31.
$ + RGLD (22.82): We hold 800 shares with a basis cost of 18.05. To lower our basis price, and to take partial profits, continue to offer six August 25 calls for 0.45 and 200 shares at 23.98, both g-t-c.
KLAC (50.29): Wednesday’s decline created a minor impulse leg to the downside, but we’d need a retracement rally to get short. For now, do nothing.
+ EBAY (101.48): We hold four Oct 120 calls for 2.00. The plan is to sell some September 120 calls into a rally (the Auggies are now a lost cause), but there is nothing to advise for now.
