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U-Haul Economics + Trading Notes

By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box


-- Posted Sunday, 26 October 2003 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!

A Chicago economist has come up with an interesting and seemingly plausible new economic indicator. We’ve all heard stories about the exodus of U-Haul vans from California, but the details are usually too sketchy to tell us much. Turns out they can be quantified in dollars and cents so that the flow of traffic reveals which U.S. regions are hurting and which are prospering. For instance, while it costs $1,080 to rent a 26-foot U-Haul truck for a one-way trip from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, the rental going in the opposite direction is just $133. To economist Brian Wesbury, the difference implies that people are moving out of California as opportunity diminishes and the economic slump persists. Here are a few more telling comparisons, as reported in the Financial Post: A one-way U-Haul move from Los Angeles to Phoenix costs $837 while the return costs $116. San Francisco to Boise: $2,024. Return trip: $310. But look at the Midwest and the rate differentials practically disappear. A U-Haul rental from Chicago and Detroit costs $419, while the return is $449. "Obviously, California is having a hard time keeping U-Haul trucks in the state," wrote Mr. Wesbury in a note to clients.  

 

He thinks it will be possible to measure Arnold Schwarzenegger’s success by noting the extent to which U-Haul rate disparities grow or shrink during the new governor’s term. Wesbury says that conventional statistics, such as personal income growth, are not as useful because they reflect changes that have already occurred. But looking at market prices such as those reflected in U-Haul rates gives an accurate picture of the here and now. "Because markets bring together the decisions of millions, they always provide signals that are much more accurate than forecasters, politicians or the press," said Wesbury, as quoted by Financial Post reporter Jason Chow. Other recent rates for a 26-foot truck, one way: Los Angeles to Las Vegas: $1,080 Las Vegas to Los Angeles: $133 Los Angeles to Phoenix: $837 Phoenix to Los Angeles: $116 Los Angeles to Denver: $1,908 Denver to Los Angeles: $498 San Francisco to Boise: $2,024 Boise to San Francisco: $310 Chicago to Detroit : $419 Detroit to Chicago: US$449.

 

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[The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.]

 

DEC DJIA (9561):  Friday’s swoon brought the mini contract down to within 40 points of the 9429 target flagged here earlier. The subsequent rally was strong enough to have stopped out any shorts held on your initiative, but the target remains viable unless 9600 is touched first.

 

DEC  E-MINI S&Ps (1028.50):  A manic rebound in the final hour occurred off a low 3 points above a 1013.25 Fibo level, but it will take a bit more to turn the minor trend bullish – specifically, a print above 1034.25 in the first hour or so.

 

DEC BONDS (109.09): We’re getting close. The futures will need to exceed 109.27 on a closing basis to abort the current, bearish forecast for the intermediate term.

 

OEX (511.25): Friday’s decline penetrated a Fibo support I’d flagged at 507.56, so I am skeptical about the rally that followed. Let’s set the bar at 517.53, a tick above an intraday peak made on October 22, to determine whether the minor trend has turned bullish.

 

QQQ  (34.17):  Like the OEX, the cubes breached a Fibonacci support on the way down Friday.  Now, in rally mode, a resistance threshold analogous to the one I’ve flagged for the OEX lies at 34.94.

 

DEC GOLD (389.20): The rally carried $2 above a hidden-pivot resistance at $390.90, so the futures remain on track for a minor-trend finishing stroke up to at least $402, a more important pivot.

 

DEC NASDAQ E-MINI (1376.00):  A move early today above 1384.50 would likely set a bullish tone for the next few days. Minimum target today thereafter: 1399.18, a Fibo level whose stopping power will be buttressed at least temporarily by the round-number resistance of 1400.

 

***

 

INTC (31.22): INTC bounced where expected, but let’s set the bar at 13.81 – just above that October 22 intraday peak I’ve noted in my forecast for the OEX and QQQs – to tell us when to turn bullish on the minor trend.

 

$   FNM (74.25):  Let’s lower our bid somewhat for the March 60 puts. Bid 1.00 for 24 of them, contingent on the stock trading 75.00 or lower. If Fannie is higher, lower the bid to 0.90, no further contingencies. My goal is to leg into a calendar spread by shorting some Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb 60 puts later. We’ll need to be persistent to get filled on the first leg, since only a professional trader who has bought other puts dirt-cheap would have the chutzpah to short March 60 puts on the bid.

 

C  (47.60):  If Citi can close above 48.20 today it will turn short-term stochastic influences mildly bullish, but a close above 48.73 would make them positively giddy.

 

$  +  GG (15.64):  We hold 300 shares for an average 5.34. Continue to offer 100 shares to close at 15.81 -- just above Friday’s high.

 

$  +   HL (5.95):  We hold ten December 7.50 calls for 0.30. Continue to offer ten November 7.50 calls short for 0.20. The most immediate hurdle is the 6.53 peak notched on September 25, but if it is easily brushed aside we can expect the minor rally cycle to continue to at least 7.00.

 

+  RANGY (13.97):  We hold 400 shares for an average 10.12. There are two targets above: 16.54, the nearest hidden pivot of significance to the intermediate-term picture; and a somewhat more important one at 18.76. We’ll do no profit taking until the first is reached, but any dips below 12 would be used to add to our position.

 

+  RGLD (20.51): We hold 300 shares with a cost basis of $8.84 per. We’ll remain on the sidelines and cheer Royal on, since it needs to get by a September 12’ peak at 22.50 to take wing.

 

IBM (88.15):  I gave 78.12 as the price where IBM would have to trade to turn the intermediate-term trend bearish, but I am going to revise that downward to 76.44. That’s a major “trigger” pivot for shorting the stock, whereas the earlier number implied the breach of an obscure, though presumably supportive, low made in late March.

 

EBAY  (56.60):  My downside target for the next 3-5 days is still 51.27, a hidden pivot.[/b] 


-- Posted Sunday, 26 October 2003 | Digg This Article


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MarketWise Black Box is published on weekdays 240 times per year. Copyright 2003 by MarketWise. For further information please go to www.marketwise.com. All information was gathered from sources believed to be reliable The risk of loss in futures, stocks or options can be substantial; therefore only genuine risk s should be used for such trading. Futures, stocks and options may not be a suitable investment for all individuals, and individuals should therefore carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Commodity option traders should be aware that the assignment of a short position will result in a futures position. Past profits are not indicative of future profits.



 



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