[The + symbol means we have an open position, while $ means there is actionable advice.]
DEC DJIA (9561): Friday’s swoon brought the mini contract down to within 40 points of the 9429 target flagged here earlier. The subsequent rally was strong enough to have stopped out any shorts held on your initiative, but the target remains viable unless 9600 is touched first.
DEC E-MINI S&Ps (1028.50): A manic rebound in the final hour occurred off a low 3 points above a 1013.25 Fibo level, but it will take a bit more to turn the minor trend bullish – specifically, a print above 1034.25 in the first hour or so.
DEC BONDS (109.09): We’re getting close. The futures will need to exceed 109.27 on a closing basis to abort the current, bearish forecast for the intermediate term.
OEX (511.25): Friday’s decline penetrated a Fibo support I’d flagged at 507.56, so I am skeptical about the rally that followed. Let’s set the bar at 517.53, a tick above an intraday peak made on October 22, to determine whether the minor trend has turned bullish.
QQQ (34.17): Like the OEX, the cubes breached a Fibonacci support on the way down Friday. Now, in rally mode, a resistance threshold analogous to the one I’ve flagged for the OEX lies at 34.94.
DEC GOLD (389.20): The rally carried $2 above a hidden-pivot resistance at $390.90, so the futures remain on track for a minor-trend finishing stroke up to at least $402, a more important pivot.
DEC NASDAQ E-MINI (1376.00): A move early today above 1384.50 would likely set a bullish tone for the next few days. Minimum target today thereafter: 1399.18, a Fibo level whose stopping power will be buttressed at least temporarily by the round-number resistance of 1400.
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INTC (31.22): INTC bounced where expected, but let’s set the bar at 13.81 – just above that October 22 intraday peak I’ve noted in my forecast for the OEX and QQQs – to tell us when to turn bullish on the minor trend.
$ FNM (74.25): Let’s lower our bid somewhat for the March 60 puts. Bid 1.00 for 24 of them, contingent on the stock trading 75.00 or lower. If Fannie is higher, lower the bid to 0.90, no further contingencies. My goal is to leg into a calendar spread by shorting some Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb 60 puts later. We’ll need to be persistent to get filled on the first leg, since only a professional trader who has bought other puts dirt-cheap would have the chutzpah to short March 60 puts on the bid.
C (47.60): If Citi can close above 48.20 today it will turn short-term stochastic influences mildly bullish, but a close above 48.73 would make them positively giddy.
$ + GG (15.64): We hold 300 shares for an average 5.34. Continue to offer 100 shares to close at 15.81 -- just above Friday’s high.
$ + HL (5.95): We hold ten December 7.50 calls for 0.30. Continue to offer ten November 7.50 calls short for 0.20. The most immediate hurdle is the 6.53 peak notched on September 25, but if it is easily brushed aside we can expect the minor rally cycle to continue to at least 7.00.
+ RANGY (13.97): We hold 400 shares for an average 10.12. There are two targets above: 16.54, the nearest hidden pivot of significance to the intermediate-term picture; and a somewhat more important one at 18.76. We’ll do no profit taking until the first is reached, but any dips below 12 would be used to add to our position.
+ RGLD (20.51): We hold 300 shares with a cost basis of $8.84 per. We’ll remain on the sidelines and cheer Royal on, since it needs to get by a September 12’ peak at 22.50 to take wing.
IBM (88.15): I gave 78.12 as the price where IBM would have to trade to turn the intermediate-term trend bearish, but I am going to revise that downward to 76.44. That’s a major “trigger” pivot for shorting the stock, whereas the earlier number implied the breach of an obscure, though presumably supportive, low made in late March.
EBAY (56.60): My downside target for the next 3-5 days is still 51.27, a hidden pivot.[/b]
