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METALS:1/14 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:GLD-1.20 ,SLV-0.5 ,PLAT+4.60 London Gold Fix $353.75 +$1.40 LME Copper Warehouse stks 854,750 ton +775 tons Comex Gold stocks 2.04 ml Unchanged COMEX Silver stks 107.0 ml oz, -187,055 oz
OVERNIGHT ACTION: Minor losses attributed to Monday's general weakness in New York.
GOLD: Even though US economic numbers have been soft, we have to think that over all macro economic anxiety buying in gold is set to decline with German, French, Japanese and the UK all posting numbers that appear to be hinting at sustained economic growth. However, with the Dollar lower today and energy prices soaring yesterday, war support should continue to provide the main underlying support to gold prices. So far, the potential for "exile" instead of "war" in Iraq seems to be a low probably outcome, but that potential is probably the biggest risk to the longs. Near term chart support in the April gold contract comes in at $352.5 and then again at $351. Gold remains $7 above the level, which registered 110,000 spec longs last week and that leaves the market vulnerable. We doubt that retail sales today will have that much of an impact on gold, but a significantly weak reading could join the slack payroll reading from last week, for a slight deflationary tilt, as economic anxiety longs haven't been easily drawn into the long side of gold. In fact, not even soaring energy prices haven't sparked much in the way of fresh buying, as the gold market is only excited by the prospect of war in Iraq.
SILVER: Trend line support comes in at $4.755, with silver once again lacking favorable leadership from gold. In the longer term, silver could eventually be supported by evidence of improving French and German growth, but in the short term silver does not appear to be tracking the industrial demand focus. With the recent COT report registering a net spec long of 68,000 longs and silver making gains since that report was measured, we have to gauge the net spec long to be roughly 70,000 long. In modern history (since early 1995) silver has not seen a net spec long above 82,000 contracts, in the options and futures combined category. Therefore, this market is not totally tapped out of buying power, but is within striking distance of being tapped out. In conclusion, the funds seem to have more capacity to buy than do the small specs, if past history is any guide. The bias remains up but gains could be hard fought. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 1/14/03
#P-METALS 01/14/03: SILVER (MAR): The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. Initial support for silver is at 481.3 and below there at 477.6 with resistance likely at 483.7 and 486.8. The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The next downside target is 477.6. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce.
GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near 350.88, while resistance is pegged at 359.48. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 359.48. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The market's short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
-- Posted Tuesday, 14 January 2003
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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