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-- Posted Wednesday, 5 February 2003 | Digg This Article
METALS:2/5 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:GLD+6.80 ,SLV+3.7 ,PLAT+5.00 London Gold Fix $385.00 +$10.15 LME Copper Warehouse sts 851,550 ton +21,125 tns Comex Gold stocks 2.147 ml -12,633 oz COMEX Silver stks 108.1 ml oz +497,987 oz OVERNIGHT ACTION: Another new high for spot gold but gains were pared very quickly. GOLD: The wild action reported in Tokyo gold overnight, hints at the potential for volatility in the coming two weeks. Supposedly, gold rocketed higher and then encountered massive selling before managing to finish the session several Dollars above where the US gold market finished its action Tuesday afternoon. Apparently some buyers in the US and Japan were buying gold because of fears of some type of confrontation with North Korea. It’s probably a given that gold is also being driven the upcoming UN testimony. With US gold $7 above the prior New York close this morning and $15 above the last COT report mark off, we suspect that the net spec long is roughly 140,000 contracts. We continue to project the upside targeting on this move at $395 to $410 basis the April contract. Like the energy complex, the gold market has set a pretty high bar for the Powell testimony this morning. The US presentation is expected to come between 9:30 and 10:30 central time. However, it could take several hours before it can be determined if the presentation had any effect on France and Germany. Traders that are long futures should consider giving up a portion of their profits by purchasing some put protection. In past tops, the gold market was unable to process orders and some traders didn’t know the status of fills for hours! We continue to forecast a major top in gold within the next 14 sessions! SILVER: The May silver managed to breakout of the up trend channel to the upside overnight in the first sign of solid strength since the early January probe. However, we calculate the net spec long in silver to be closing in on 80,000 contracts and that is basically a modern day record for the spec long position. Like gold, silver longs should consider carrying some cheap puts for protection in the coming two weeks. For instance, an April silver 480 puts might be less than $400 dollars and that could provide longs enough comfort to stay for what could be a wild ride. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/5/03 #P-METALS 2/5/03: SILVER (MAR): The market has a bullish tilt coming into today's trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. Initial support for silver is at 488.8 and below there at 484.9 with resistance likely at 491.5 and 494.8. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The next upside objective is 491.5. GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near 373.95, while resistance is pegged at 383.55. The crossover up in the daily stochastics is a bullish signal. The near-term upside target is at 383.55. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The market rallied to a new contract high. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday's gap on the day session chart.
-- Posted Wednesday, 5 February 2003 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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