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-- Posted Thursday, 20 February 2003 | Digg This Article
METALS:2/20 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:22 AM:GLD+1.90 ,SLV+1.5,PLAT+4.20,CP +.85 London Gold Fix $351.10 +$3.90 LME Copper Warehouse stks 825,675 ton -550 tns Comex Gold stocks 2.269 ml +104,995 oz COMEX Silver stks 107.6 ml oz Unchanged OVERNIGHT ACTION: The Japanese were light buyers possibly off Korean military tensions. GOLD: It would seem that the war tilt is back on and the gold market is once again the prime benefactor of the renewed anxieties. We see the basis for the increased war tilt as the UK moved to order its citizens out of Iraq. We also noted some attention given to stories about Iraq possibly trying to import illegal arms by boat and that would certainly turn more of the international community toward the US position on war. It should also be noted that the gold market didn't give the renewed rumors of exile any consideration yesterday probably there is nothing new in the story to convince players that such a solution is possible. Some gold buyers even suggested that gold was up Wednesday because the stock market was down and that is supportive tilt from a totally new angle. Apparently North and South Korea had a slight brush with each other as a North Korean fighter veered into South Korean airspace, which in turn caused a defensive response from South Korea. In any regard, the gold market is hunting for developments to rally on and that suggests the bull camp is back in charge for the short term. As opposed to the initial rally to $390, we now see a number of producer hedges liquidated and that could allow gold an easier return to the old highs. Critical resistance points in the April gold contract today are $353 and then again at $357.4. We see no reason why the coming wave higher can't return to the late January consolidation bound by $366.5 and $372.5. SILVER: Taking its cue from the gold market, silver appears to be poised to climb back above $4.70. We are really impressed with the silver markets action of the last 7 days, as it didn't weaken in the face of significant stock market weakness and at times silver even managed to distance itself from gold weakness. Since open interest declined from 103,574 contracts to 90,355 contracts on the recent break, we have to assume that the small spec and fund long were also reduced, leaving the market in a slightly improved technical position. However, we are still doubtful that the May silver will be able to take out the February high of $4.99. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/20/03 #P-METALS 02/20/03: SILVER (MAY): A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Initial support for silver is at 459.8 and below there at 454.4 with resistance likely at 462.6 and 467.3. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 462.6. Short-term indicators suggest buying dips today. GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near 343.15, while resistance is pegged at 354.35. Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 343.15. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.
-- Posted Thursday, 20 February 2003 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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