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-- Posted Monday, 24 February 2003 | Digg This Article
METALS: 2/24 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM: GLD+2.00 ,SLV+0.0, PLAT+4.50 London Gold Fix $352.90 -$1.20 LME Copper Warehouse stks 824,850 ton -50 tns Comex Gold stocks 2.263 ml Unchanged COMEX Silver stks 108.0 ml oz Unchanged OVERNIGHT ACTION: Light buying in Australia and Japan but long interest is unimpressive. GOLD: The market would seem to have found some support around $350 in the April contract, partly because of the upcoming UN debate on the use of force resolution and partly because of the potential to see a rate cut from the ECB. It would also seem like the outlook for the economy is worsening, with the numbers last week softening and the promise of even more job losses ahead. Therefore, the gold market could be in line for a little macro economic uncertainty but traders have to make sure the economic tilt doesn't degrade into a fear of deflation. The net spec long position in the gold contracted by 20,000 contracts to 87,000 contracts as of February 14th. In other words, the gold market has toned down its overly long speculative position and that is bullish. Fresh longs probably have to risk positions to at least $348.1 basis the April contract. Near term resistance is pegged at $360 and then again at $365. We suspect that the UN vote will be delayed until Wednesday or Thursday, as the UN is notorious for following protocol. Short-term traders might utilize a breakout range of $355 and $348.5. In gold it's all about war and there would seem to be war ahead even without a UN resolution. SILVER: The weekly COT report showed a net spec long of almost 51,000 contracts, which is down about 10,000 contracts from the prior reading. With the outlook for the economy sloppy, the silver needs gold to show solid leadership, or silver will tend to sag. However, given the overnight action in silver, it would seem that the bull camp holds a slight edge. If silver is in favor, it should be able to rise above near term resistance of $4.70, but we wouldn't rule out a range of $4.63 and $4.80 in the coming two weeks. War talk should be prominent enough to leave silver with a generally positive tilt, at least until Tuesday when the Press begins to float preliminary estimates on the UN vote. The British suggest that a new resolution might be offered up as early as today. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/24/03 #P-METALS 02/24/03: SILVER (MAY): With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Initial support for silver is at 465.0 and below there at 461.0 with resistance likely at 467.0 and 470.5. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Daily stochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels which should reinforce a move higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The next upside target is 467.0. GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near 348.40, while resistance is pegged at 356.40. Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 348.40. The market's close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.
-- Posted Monday, 24 February 2003 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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