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-- Posted Tuesday, 25 February 2003 | Digg This Article
METALS:2/25 OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 4:15 AM:GLD+3.60 ,SLV+1.0 ,PLAT+9.60 London Gold Fix $359.10 +$6.20 LME Copper Warehouse stks 823,600 ton -1,250 tns Comex Gold stocks 2.263 ml Unchanged COMEX Silver stks 108.0 ml oz Unchanged OVERNIGHT ACTION: A North Korean Missile test sparked gold higher in the Asian session. GOLD: Apparently the whole issue on the 2nd UN resolution is a moot point, as the US lacks the votes and France, Germany and Russia all look set to veto the issue. In fact, the French, German and Russian block, have come out with their own resolution, with yet another time-table for "step by step" disarmament. Therefore, it would seem that seeking an answer through diplomacy is unlikely. Even with the Chief UN weapons inspector, telling Iraq to destroy illegal missiles and Saddam flatly refusing to do so, France and Germany say war is not the answer. Therefore, we have to think that the US is set to attack possibly into the coming weekend, when the sky will be moonless. Overnight the Nikkei, FTSE and DAX all were sharply lower because of the combination of international political tensions and economic uncertainty. Sharply higher Yen action overnight, in the face of a 200-point decline in the Nikkei, certainly makes gold look even better. In conclusion, the gold market looks set to siphon off more capital from equities and from simple flight to quality buying. Near term targeting in the April gold, is seen up at the late January consolidation of $367 to $374. Longs now might only have to risk positions to a nominal risk of $349 basis the April contract. SILVER: The silver market is also being pulled higher by international anxiety and a lack of alternative investments. May silver looks to have a critical pivot point at $4.75, with near term support seen down around $4.675. Gold looks to provide more than enough leadership so that silver won't be unduly impacted by the potential deflationary influences being presented by the current economic situation. We see no reason why May silver wouldn't return to the January consolidation, which is bound by $4.80 to $4.95. METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 2/25/03 #P-METALS 02/25/03: SILVER (MAY): Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market's posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. Initial support for silver is at 468.6 and below there at 462.8 with resistance likely at 472.1 and 477.1. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 472.1. GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near 349.88, while resistance is pegged at 361.68. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 361.68. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The market's short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
-- Posted Tuesday, 25 February 2003 | Digg This Article
***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
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